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semven
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Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:02 pm

Okay maybe here is something that can offer us some affable dialogue.
With the US raising its borrowing ceiling and the frenzied trading that took place in the markets today, drop in oil, uptick on precious metals. It`s easy to see that we may be heading for more hard times. The US debt ceiling almost seems to be the same strategy as people using their homes as ATM with the HELOCs.
Sooo to give the bears some credit..there may be investment vehicles that are more attractive than RE. What I propose we do is pick a property in Van (SFH) and figure out a way to keep score of this game for ..lets say 4 months. The listed price of this home will be the amount that all the players can have in their "portfolio" BUT you have to invest the whole amount in only one equity/issue
Maybe we can get Tom and Mike (Realtors) to give us the comparable listing value of the sample property on the close date.
Come to think of it we probably need 2 issues/equities per player so that you can have diversity...noone can have the same combination of 2 though.
If you guys wanna do this I will figure out a prize (Cactus Club Certificate?) and we will have a meetup there after the contest. I assume if this works there will be less hostility and more fun. Your picks will be posted on this thread and any editing will render your portfolio disqualified. Everyone who makes a pick must quote the person who picked before him.
I dont really know if this will work but if you guys can figure out how to do this it could be fun and more educational than anything we have seen on here lately

Be nice if Horton could play too....
 
rofina
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:40 pm

Neat idea, lets figure out if we can get enough people interested and set something up!
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:51 am

"semven"
What I propose we do is pick a property in Van (SFH) and figure out a way to keep score of this game for ..lets say 4 months.


you'd be hardpressed to find a SFH that's on the market for more than a month let alone 4 months. And usually if it doesn't sell at list price it's taken off the market.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
fishguy15
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 7:24 am

What I propose we do is pick a property in Van (SFH) and figure out a way to keep score of this game for ..lets say 4 months. The listed price of this home will be the amount that all the players can have in their "portfolio" BUT you have to invest the whole amount in only one equity/issue
Maybe we can get Tom and Mike (Realtors) to give us the comparable listing value of the sample property on the close date.
Why not use the HPI for detached in Vancouver? Seems a bit simpler as there would be a whole lot of argument whether the valuation of the property 4 months down the road is valid.
 
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semven
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:03 am

you'd be hardpressed to find a SFH that's on the market for more than a month let alone 4 months. And usually if it doesn't sell at list price it's taken off the market
Thats why I proposed....

Maybe we can get Tom and Mike (Realtors) to give us the comparable listing value of the sample property on the close date
Fishguy has a point...The contest maybe too close to call...More ideas? This could be funn\
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:40 am

I've been doing this since I came to this site.
Perhaps you can pull up comparable investments over this period.

Here are the housing stats:
http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.ph ... er#p227843
E Vancouver
trough = $579,761 (Dec/08)
current = $839,867
total $ lost = $260,106
% gain = 31%

Burnaby:
trough = $641,439 (Dec/08)
current = $928,093
total $ lost = $286,654
% gain = 31%
this won't tell you the true story on any investment.
i.e. my 63K downpayment is now worth 450K in equity, a gain of about 700%
I'm sure there are some better investment vehicles than this since 2009, but there are probably more that are worse.

If you want to track one now, find a particular benchmark home in an avg neighbourhood and use the HPI for any rises or falls.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
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semven
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:51 am

I've been doing this since I came to this site.
Perhaps you can pull up comparable investments over this period.

Here are the housing stats:
http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.ph ... er#p227843
E Vancouver
trough = $579,761 (Dec/08)
current = $839,867
total $ lost = $260,106
% gain = 31%

Burnaby:
trough = $641,439 (Dec/08)
current = $928,093
total $ lost = $286,654
% gain = 31%
this won't tell you the true story on any investment.
i.e. my 63K downpayment is now worth 450K in equity, a gain of about 700%
I'm sure there are some better investment vehicles than this since 2009, but there are probably more that are worse.

If you want to track one now, find a particular benchmark home in an avg neighbourhood and use the HPI for any rises or falls.
Sorry Grasshopper..Your success is documented. New slate for everybody. Pick 2 Investments.(Once we get a subject property to determine portfolio size)
For what its worth I dont know how I will play it either...I wont use the listing I posted in the 2012 thread (though something tells me I should)
i.e. my 63K downpayment is now worth 450K in equity, a gain of about 700%
Thats leverage and wont count...You would only see 31% on your 63K
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:32 am

"semven"
i.e. my 63K downpayment is now worth 450K in equity, a gain of about 700%
Thats leverage and wont count...You would only see 31% on your 63K
31% on 63K is $19,530 - your math sucks semven.
If you're talking about cash in hand from my investment it's actually 0.00
either way we're discussing investment vehicles and which is better - not actual sales or actual
return on sale of assets. The question is "if" one were to have purchased said property rather than
invest in alternatives.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
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semven
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:04 am

Why does my math suck?
All i said was you would be creditied 31% on your 63k not 700%

Come on ETB Does the suggestion that you were a 1 trick pony upset you that much?
 
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semven
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:12 am

I suggest.... V896053
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:16 am

The question is "if" one were to have purchased said property rather than invest in alternatives.
But Semven is right - you are using your example of leverage and comparing it to outright purchase - they are different. If you want to use leverage for one, you have to allow leverage for the other.

If I had bought 630K worth of gold in early 2009, but only put down 63K of my own money, my return on the 63K is nearly 1000%. But the asset itself is only up about 80% in that time.
 
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:27 am

westcoastfella, ETB never said his house go up 700%. it is his equity and return on equity that is 700%. He is not BSing, it is almost true as of today,
 
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semven
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:47 pm

You know what?
Forget it...This is like herding cats...
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 2:08 pm

westcoastfella, ETB never said his house go up 700%. it is his equity and return on equity that is 700%. He is not BSing, it is almost true as of today,
correct

we are talking about the sheer investment potential of each
i.e. if I would have taken my 63K and bought gold in 2009 instead of a home. My 63K would have bought approximately 63 ounces of gold in February of 2009. Those 63 ounces are worth 104K today - a 139% increase.
My 63K investment in my home purchase has gained 700%.

Not many people pay full cash for their homes - so you can't compare each investment vehicle until you know what amount the buyer has invested in their property. You're just comparing apples to Cadillacs if you just look at HPI.
I've been open enough to share my specific situation with the group for the purpose of a fuller assessment...the apples to apples comparison.

Not sure why this is so complicated.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
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Re: Well you have to be Bullish on something....

Wed Aug 03, 2011 2:58 pm

i.e. if I would have taken my 63K and bought gold in 2009 instead of a home. My 63K would have bought approximately 63 ounces of gold in February of 2009. Those 63 ounces are worth 104K today - a 139% increase.
My 63K investment in my home purchase has gained 700%.
4500+ posts and you still can't grasp the concept of leverage. Hint: you invested $63K but received a substantial more valuable asset in return along with a buttload of debt. Now let's see if you arrive at the equivalent analogy regarding gold.
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