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vanpro
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Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Fri Jul 15, 2011 9:35 am

Updated RBC Economics Candian City Trends (as of July 8, 2011).

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf

As you can see, Vancouver's woeful economy continues to lag many other Canadian cities in the following key stats:

Vancouver's unemployment rate is 7.2%, ranking 17th out of 27 cities (where lower rank means higher unemployment).

Vancouver's job growth is 8th (lagging well behind cities like Sherbrooke, Edmonton, Kitchener, St.Johns, Kingston, Calgary etc...)

Vancouver's population growth is WAY behind ranking at 7th (all of these cities have HIGHER POPULATION GROWTH comapred to Vancouver: Saskatoon, Oshawa, TORONTO (#3), Calgary (#4)) - contrary to the myth propagated...

The only thing Vancouver is #1 in is house price increase....

(NOTE: these stats are CITY stats, not provincial, i.e. Vancouver vs. other cities in Canada)
 
VanLord
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Re: Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Sun Jul 17, 2011 10:20 am

Interesting how you can spin these numbers, Vancouver's woeful economy is beating the national average in every statistical category measured in this study
Updated RBC Economics Candian City Trends (as of July 8, 2011).

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf

As you can see, Vancouver's woeful economy continues to lag many other Canadian cities in the following key stats:

Vancouver's unemployment rate is 7.2%, ranking 17th out of 27 cities (where lower rank means higher unemployment).
Vancouver is still ahead of the national average for unemployment (Regina is leading at 5.2% a full 2 pts higher than Vancouver, might be worth noting that Regina is a capital city with many public sector jobs, along with Edmonton, Winnipeg, Victoria, Quebec who are all doing better in unemployment...what happened to Toronto here)
Vancouver's job growth is 8th (lagging well behind cities like Sherbrooke, Edmonton, Kitchener, St.Johns, Kingston, Calgary etc...)
Vancouver is double the national average...Also Calgary is 0.1% higher, I'm sure that is a huge difference. Edmonton at 4.1%, Sherbrooke at 9.6% wow these economies must be exploding, or perhaps some other statistical explanation???
Vancouver's population growth is WAY behind ranking at 7th (all of these cities have HIGHER POPULATION GROWTH comapred to Vancouver: Saskatoon, Oshawa, TORONTO (#3), Calgary (#4)) - contrary to the myth propagated...
We are actually tied for 5th at 1.8%, Calgary, Toronto at 1.9% wow we are really lagging behind those two cities. Also interesting that Oshawa at 2.1% is ranked 2nd in pop growth, but also has a very high jobless rate...Are all of the laid off GM plant workers having babies???
The only thing Vancouver is #1 in is house price increase....
Crazy indeed, lets hope this cools off...or maybe I should sell my house now!!
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:30 am

Updated RBC Economics Candian City Trends (as of July 8, 2011).

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf

As you can see, Vancouver's woeful economy continues to lag many other Canadian cities in the following key stats:

Vancouver's unemployment rate is 7.2%, ranking 17th out of 27 cities (where lower rank means higher unemployment).

Vancouver's job growth is 8th (lagging well behind cities like Sherbrooke, Edmonton, Kitchener, St.Johns, Kingston, Calgary etc...)

Vancouver's population growth is WAY behind ranking at 7th (all of these cities have HIGHER POPULATION GROWTH comapred to Vancouver: Saskatoon, Oshawa, TORONTO (#3), Calgary (#4)) - contrary to the myth propagated...

The only thing Vancouver is #1 in is house price increase....

(NOTE: these stats are CITY stats, not provincial, i.e. Vancouver vs. other cities in Canada)
doesn't this tell you that there's more to affordability in Vancouver than a simple income/price calculation?
Tell me vanpro, with the dire stats you posted here, how is it detached prices are increasing in Vancouver?
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
vanpro
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Re: Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Sun Jul 17, 2011 1:38 pm

VanLord:

Being marginally better than the national average in some economic stats still doesn't justify being 3 times the national average house price -especially when absolute level of unemployment is 7.2% which is 50% higher than 2008 before the recession in Vancouver (when it was less than 5%).

And, you are reading the table wrong - see the 2nd page that gives the rankings: Vancouver is 7th (not "tied for 5th") in population growth at only 1.8% per annum (notably this rate is less than HALF the rate in the early 1990's when the Hong Kong Chinese were immigrating here).

Oh, and re: your theory about auto workers having babies: read the table column headings - it says "Adult Population"....

eyes:

Yes, I have considered that - that is why I find Vancouver's population growth at a mere 1.8% (7th behind Toronto (#3), Calgary (#4), etc...) and less than half the population growth of the early 1990's counters your theory that it is outside or "foreign" incomes and wealth coming here with bags of money and fueling our prices. Also, this is further corroborated by low income stats for Vancouver and its neighbourhoods (see BC Stats). The facts keep pointing to local buyers over-strectching (perhaps via sub-prime borrowing, "stated-income" etc...). See also Colliers report referring to the "many myths" of Mainland Chinese buyers, MAC Marketing (2nd biggest condo project marketers in Vancouver) and Rennie's comments that Mainland Chinese are less than 1% of the new condo market etc....all of which have been recently posted on other threads.
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:34 pm

"vanpro"

counters your theory that it is outside or "foreign" incomes and wealth coming here with bags of money and fueling our prices.
not my theory. But...
The stats tell us that only 9% of buyers in REBGV are foreign. Not so big a deal, right? Now deduct the areas they do not buy like
New West, Coquitlam, etc. that 9% becomes a much larger number - and a much bigger problem if the area they DO buy is the one you've targeted as
the location you want to buy your home in. Add to that these foreign buyers are skimming off the cream of the crop. These price increases ripple all the way down the food chain.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
VanLord
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Re: Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Sun Jul 17, 2011 9:14 pm

VanLord:

Being marginally better than the national average in some economic stats still doesn't justify being 3 times the national average house price -especially when absolute level of unemployment is 7.2% which is 50% higher than 2008 before the recession in Vancouver (when it was less than 5%).
I'm not saying it does or doesn't justify our home prices, what I am saying is that I think you are painting a picture that may not be totally correct. You are saying Vancouver's economy is in woeful shape, but yet we are above the national average in every category this table measures. Not Some categories as you say! Well at least you are willing to admit that the differences are marginal.

And, you are reading the table wrong - see the 2nd page that gives the rankings: Vancouver is 7th (not "tied for 5th") in population growth at only 1.8% per annum (notably this rate is less than HALF the rate in the early 1990's when the Hong Kong Chinese were immigrating here).

Oh, and re: your theory about auto workers having babies: read the table column headings - it says "Adult Population"....
did you look at 5th and 6th on the chart? They are both at 1.8%, so for all intents and purposes we are tied. If we are talking about actualy numbers and not percentages Vancouver is likely higher.

Sure ok the Adult population in Oshawa is growing at an impressive 2.1%, so then the only explanation is people from Scarborough are moving out to Oshawa, and maybe pop growth doesn't really mean a lot given that Oshawa likely has one of the worst economies in the country, but yet sits 2nd overall in "Adult Population" Growth.

Now just to be clear, I'm not really interested in debating statistical studies. I agree Vancouver RE is overheated and needs to cool off, but I wouldn't say in we are in dire straits economically. I would say things have improved since the recession and we are ok compared to many other places in Canada, certainly much better off compared to the US.
 
vanpro
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Re: Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:08 am

VanLord: I am just trying to point our the "big" picture - all I am saying is that being 5th, 6th or 7th in Canda and having an unemployment rate at 7.2% vs. less than 5% in 2008 and having lower population growth than several Cdn cities does not reconcile with having average house prices 3-4 times those cities (i.e. our prices are not just 20%-30% higher but 3-4 TIMES higher which is not sustainable given the significantly lower level of economic activity in our city).

And, here is similar report that just came out by CIBC ranking Vancouver's economy 7th. Toronto is #1:

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_pub ... onitor.pdf

And, btw here is the Vancouver Sun story today on the report by CIBC:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/To ... story.html


Toronto has strongest economy among Canadian cities; Vancouver at 7th

By Christine Dobby, Postmedia News July 19, 2011 5:24 AM

Toronto has the strongest metropolitan economic activity of any major city in Canada during the first quarter of 2011, while employment-related numbers pulled Vancouver down to a 7th-place finish, according to a CIBC report. The following are how the 25 cities surveyed did in the rankings, based on job numbers, home sales, and other economic indicators.

VANCOUVER - The ratings assess the relative performance of Canadian cities for the first quarter of 2011 and look at factors like employment, consumer and business bankruptcy, and housing sales and starts.

Although Toronto was not at the top of any of the sub-categories of economic momentum, its high scores over many measures gave it the top aggregate score.

"Simply put, the multi-channel nature of Toronto's economic engine is the secret not only behind its current top ranking, but also behind its ability to maintain a relatively high ranking position over the past two years," said Benjamin Tal, CIBC deputy chief economist.

He noted that during the first quarter, overall employment in the city rose by close to two per cent and more than 80 per cent of the increase in employment was in full-time jobs.

The city's population is also growing at a quick annual pace of almost two per cent and housing starts were 47.8 per cent higher than the same period in 2010. Meanwhile, consumer bankruptcy in Toronto has been declining over the past year and currently ranks among Canada's lowest.

Tal said the index, which combines nine economic variables into one measure for each city, correlating each variable with overall GDP for the economy as a whole, provides a picture that goes "beyond the headline GDP numbers."

"More than two-thirds of Canada's GDP is generated in major cities, so the tale of those cities is the tale of the economy," he said.

Toronto moved up from second to claim first place in the latest rankings. Kitchener, Ont., Winnipeg, Regina and Montreal rounded out the top five performers on the index.


---------------


ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX Q1, 2011

1. Toronto

2. Kitchener, Ont.

3. Winnipeg

4. Regina

5. Montreal

6. Quebec City

7. Vancouver
8. Halifax

9. Ottawa

10. Hamilton

11. Edmonton

12. Trois-Rivieres, Que.

13. Sudbury, Ont.

14. St. John's

15. Calgary

16. London, Ont.

17. Victoria

18. St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont.

19. Saskatoon

20. Kingston, Ont.

21. Windsor, Ont.

22. Sherbrooke, Que.

23. Saint John

24. Thunder Bay, Ont.

25. Saguenay, Que.
 
VanLord
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Re: Woeful Van Economy Lags Other CDN Cities

Thu Jul 21, 2011 5:04 pm

VanLord: I am just trying to point our the "big" picture - all I am saying is that being 5th, 6th or 7th in Canda and having an unemployment rate at 7.2% vs. less than 5% in 2008 and having lower population growth than several Cdn cities does not reconcile with having average house prices 3-4 times those cities (i.e. our prices are not just 20%-30% higher but 3-4 TIMES higher which is not sustainable given the significantly lower level of economic activity in our city).
Can't really argue with you on that. Although 7th place isn't to bad in the grand scheme of things, I wonder where Vancouver has ranked throughout the last 10 years while RE has consistently been outpacing most of these other cities. I suspect we are probably in a fairly consistent 5th - 10th place position. I am sure Calgary, Edmonton Saskatoon were above us for much of the past decade.

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