Real Estate Talks

there will be buyers in this city without the money laundering.
We've lost buyers in the 3Million plus detached west side market, but
that was only a small % of buyers.
To think that you can shut off the tap of 100+ years of Chinese immigration with a paltry 15% tax
is naive.

Economy is up substantially in volume. Everyone is concerned about the price of a single property when it is close and correct, including most writing

The things that ETB are posting are facts.
House x sold for this much over asking price at this date <- this is a fact.

But you need to put things into context and do some statistical analysis. You can't post 10 examples and claim that you know what's going on in the market.

There were 440 detached sales on the month of January 2017 according to REBGV Stats.
Posting one or two sales here and there has no STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE when analyzing direction of the market or its current state.
Even if you posted 20 sales over ask prices for this month, it only represents 4% of sales, where does that lie in the distribution curve?

The real cognitive dissonance is believing that you know what's going on in the market with a couple of over ask sales.
While these sales posts are nice, they do not represent the market.

You need more samples for your conclusion to mean anything. 
Here is something significant - on 2016 there were 1046 Detached sales.
Compare this to this year's January of 440 - that is a 59% decrease in sales YoY (ouch!).

Now I'm going to be fair about this and take my own advice, you have to be critical of the data. 
In my example, the data is sales volume. Sales volume does NOT necessarily dictate prices. Therefore if volume is down, it does not equate to prices going down.
What it does mean is that there is less activity in the market.
This can be either due to people being priced out, or owners just don't want to sell - or both.

Furthermore, the data is one month out of the year which is less than 10% of a full year's data. It will be more significant if the trend for a span of 6 months is analyzed.

This is why Trends are so nice to look at, as long as the Raw Data that was used is statistically significant and not manipulated. There's a lot of historical data and samples in the trends.
People here need to think more critically of what the data and facts really mean and put it into perspective. Otherwise you're just making un-educated guesses.

Edit- Changed YoY January 2017 sale numbers from 1929 to 1046. The 1929 is the listings, not the sales. As pointed out by yzfr1 

Besides TDMA i dont think anyone is claiming prices are going to the moon.

No one has money to double down in this market, not normal people anyways. Also the liability out weighs the risk. A 30% down turn is more likely then a 15% upshot.

Only people buying now are primary home owners or ultra rich Chinese / developers.

Licensed and vetted people write things that are real.

People are not required to match things and run a masters degree.   Furthermore, its expressly permitted to write 5 to 15 pieces and state truth that one has knowledge, especially more than unlicensed individuals.

Writing in several or a number has a deep meaning for the past and future, especially when knowing the marketing is going up.  Altogether, writing double the number of listings would mean a large portion of the market.

The writing of business has a stance and summary of the economy.

You do not need to write any more than is necessary.

The most important part is the number of contracts completed controls the  prices.

January 2008 sales for detached properties decreased 7.8 per cent to 641, from the 695 detached units sold over the same period in 2007. The January benchmark price for detached properties rose 15.7 per cent from January 2007 to $742,490.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2011 reached 793, an increase of 12.5 per cent from the 705 detached sales recorded in January 2010, and a 171.6 per cent increase from the 292 units sold in January 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 2.7 per cent from January 2010 to $810,045.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2012 reached 659, a decline of 16.9 per cent from the 793 detached sales recorded in January 2011, and a 6.5 per cent decrease from the 705 units sold in January 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.3 per cent from January 2011 to $1,034,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2013 reached 542, a decrease of 17.8 per cent from the 659 detached sales recorded in January 2012, and a 31.7 per cent decrease from the 793 units sold in January 2011.

Sales of detached properties in January 2014 reached 728, an increase of 34.3 per cent from the 542 detached sales recorded in January 2013, and a 10.5 per cent increase from the 659 units sold in January 2012. The benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver increased 3.2 per cent from January 2013 to $929,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2015 reached 781, an increase of 7.3 per cent from the 728 detached sales recorded in January 2014, and a 44.1 per cent increase from the 542 units sold in January 2013. The benchmark price for a detached property in Metro Vancouver increased 8.4 per cent from January 2014 to $1,010,000.

Sales of detached properties in January 2016 reached 1,047, an increase of 34.1 per cent from the 781 detached sales recorded in January 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 25.9 per cent from January 2015 to $1,273,100.

Sales of detached properties in January 2017 reached 444, a decrease of 57.6 per cent from the 1,047 detached sales recorded in January 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,474,800. This represents a 6.6 per cent decline over the last six months and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2016.


As you can see 2016 was a big year, again CONTEXT. Nice try with the 77% YOY

January 2008 sales for detached properties decreased 7.8 per cent to 641, from the 695 detached units sold over the same period in 2007. The January benchmark price for detached properties rose 15.7 per cent from January 2007 to $742,490.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2011 reached 793, an increase of 12.5 per cent from the 705 detached sales recorded in January 2010, and a 171.6 per cent increase from the 292 units sold in January 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 2.7 per cent from January 2010 to $810,045.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2012 reached 659, a decline of 16.9 per cent from the 793 detached sales recorded in January 2011, and a 6.5 per cent decrease from the 705 units sold in January 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.3 per cent from January 2011 to $1,034,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2013 reached 542, a decrease of 17.8 per cent from the 659 detached sales recorded in January 2012, and a 31.7 per cent decrease from the 793 units sold in January 2011.

Sales of detached properties in January 2014 reached 728, an increase of 34.3 per cent from the 542 detached sales recorded in January 2013, and a 10.5 per cent increase from the 659 units sold in January 2012. The benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver increased 3.2 per cent from January 2013 to $929,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2015 reached 781, an increase of 7.3 per cent from the 728 detached sales recorded in January 2014, and a 44.1 per cent increase from the 542 units sold in January 2013. The benchmark price for a detached property in Metro Vancouver increased 8.4 per cent from January 2014 to $1,010,000.

Sales of detached properties in January 2016 reached 1,047, an increase of 34.1 per cent from the 781 detached sales recorded in January 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 25.9 per cent from January 2015 to $1,273,100.

Sales of detached properties in January 2017 reached 444, a decrease of 57.6 per cent from the 1,047 detached sales recorded in January 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,474,800. This represents a 6.6 per cent decline over the last six months and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2016.


As you can see 2016 was a big year, again CONTEXT. Nice try with the 77% YOY

market is down - even the person above agrees even though he insists the market is up.

January 2008 sales for detached properties decreased 7.8 per cent to 641, from the 695 detached units sold over the same period in 2007. The January benchmark price for detached properties rose 15.7 per cent from January 2007 to $742,490.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2011 reached 793, an increase of 12.5 per cent from the 705 detached sales recorded in January 2010, and a 171.6 per cent increase from the 292 units sold in January 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 2.7 per cent from January 2010 to $810,045.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2012 reached 659, a decline of 16.9 per cent from the 793 detached sales recorded in January 2011, and a 6.5 per cent decrease from the 705 units sold in January 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.3 per cent from January 2011 to $1,034,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2013 reached 542, a decrease of 17.8 per cent from the 659 detached sales recorded in January 2012, and a 31.7 per cent decrease from the 793 units sold in January 2011.

Sales of detached properties in January 2014 reached 728, an increase of 34.3 per cent from the 542 detached sales recorded in January 2013, and a 10.5 per cent increase from the 659 units sold in January 2012. The benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver increased 3.2 per cent from January 2013 to $929,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2015 reached 781, an increase of 7.3 per cent from the 728 detached sales recorded in January 2014, and a 44.1 per cent increase from the 542 units sold in January 2013. The benchmark price for a detached property in Metro Vancouver increased 8.4 per cent from January 2014 to $1,010,000.

Sales of detached properties in January 2016 reached 1,047, an increase of 34.1 per cent from the 781 detached sales recorded in January 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 25.9 per cent from January 2015 to $1,273,100.

Sales of detached properties in January 2017 reached 444, a decrease of 57.6 per cent from the 1,047 detached sales recorded in January 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,474,800. This represents a 6.6 per cent decline over the last six months and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2016.


As you can see 2016 was a big year, again CONTEXT. Nice try with the 77% YOY

You're correct I used the listings number of 1929 instead of the sales 1046 which is the right number - thanks for correcting.
It's good that you listed that Data from 2008. 
Jan 2008 - decreased 7.8 per 
Jan 2011 - increase of 12.5
Jan 2013 - decrease of 17.8
Jan 2014 - increase of 34.3 
Jan 2015 - increase of 7.3
Jan 2016 -  increase of 34.1
Jan 2017 - decrease of 57.6

Do you see that is a HUGE difference in change? It would be nice to do it over other months and overlay it on a price chart. 
2016 was a crazy year, which had an increase of 34%, much higher than the average change. but 2017 even doubles that of 2016 on the negative direction.


Really thanks for posting these numbers and putting it into context, we can start having more meaningful conversations. It's also awesome I have tdma on ignore - now all the noise is gone.

The things that ETB are posting are facts.
House x sold for this much over asking price at this date <- this is a fact.

But you need to put things into context and do some statistical analysis. You can't post 10 examples and claim that you know what's going on in the market.

There were 440 detached sales on the month of January 2017 according to REBGV Stats.
Posting one or two sales here and there has no STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE when analyzing direction of the market or its current state.
Even if you posted 20 sales over ask prices for this month, it only represents 4% of sales, where does that lie in the distribution curve?

The real cognitive dissonance is believing that you know what's going on in the market with a couple of over ask sales.
While these sales posts are nice, they do not represent the market.

You need more samples for your conclusion to mean anything. 
Here is something significant - on 2016 there were 1929 Detached sales.
Compare this to this year's January of 440 - that is a 77% decrease in sales YoY (ouch!).

Now I'm going to be fair about this and take my own advice, you have to be critical of the data. 
In my example, the data is sales volume. Sales volume does NOT necessarily dictate prices. Therefore if volume is down, it does not equate to prices going down.
What it does mean is that there is less activity in the market.
This can be either due to people being priced out, or owners just don't want to sell - or both.

Furthermore, the data is one month out of the year which is less than 10% of a full year's data. It will be more significant if the trend for a span of 6 months is analyzed.

This is why Trends are so nice to look at, as long as the Raw Data that was used is statistically significant and not manipulated. There's a lot of historical data and samples in the trends.
People here need to think more critically of what the data and facts really mean and put it into perspective. Otherwise you're just making un-educated guesses.

ETB posts alternative facts. Would fit in quite nicely on team Trump.

Most of the time the asking price is an alternative reality - makes himself feel better that way.

Market falling apart and ETB is shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic - LOL

5442 Killarney
Sale price 1,523,000; Assessment 1,607,000

2281 Graveley
Sale price 1,725,000; Assessment 1,432,000

3308 Carolina
Sale price 1,625,000; Assessment 1,494,000; July 22, 2016 Sale price 1,460,000
I conclude that the buyer of 3308 Carolina may have paid way too much and so might the buyer of 2281 Graveley. Thoughts?

The sales are going higher than what the government things they are worth. to the moon!

January 2008 sales for detached properties decreased 7.8 per cent to 641, from the 695 detached units sold over the same period in 2007. The January benchmark price for detached properties rose 15.7 per cent from January 2007 to $742,490.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2011 reached 793, an increase of 12.5 per cent from the 705 detached sales recorded in January 2010, and a 171.6 per cent increase from the 292 units sold in January 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 2.7 per cent from January 2010 to $810,045.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2012 reached 659, a decline of 16.9 per cent from the 793 detached sales recorded in January 2011, and a 6.5 per cent decrease from the 705 units sold in January 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.3 per cent from January 2011 to $1,034,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2013 reached 542, a decrease of 17.8 per cent from the 659 detached sales recorded in January 2012, and a 31.7 per cent decrease from the 793 units sold in January 2011.

Sales of detached properties in January 2014 reached 728, an increase of 34.3 per cent from the 542 detached sales recorded in January 2013, and a 10.5 per cent increase from the 659 units sold in January 2012. The benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver increased 3.2 per cent from January 2013 to $929,700.

Sales of detached properties in January 2015 reached 781, an increase of 7.3 per cent from the 728 detached sales recorded in January 2014, and a 44.1 per cent increase from the 542 units sold in January 2013. The benchmark price for a detached property in Metro Vancouver increased 8.4 per cent from January 2014 to $1,010,000.

Sales of detached properties in January 2016 reached 1,047, an increase of 34.1 per cent from the 781 detached sales recorded in January 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 25.9 per cent from January 2015 to $1,273,100.

Sales of detached properties in January 2017 reached 444, a decrease of 57.6 per cent from the 1,047 detached sales recorded in January 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,474,800. This represents a 6.6 per cent decline over the last six months and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2016.


As you can see 2016 was a big year, again CONTEXT. Nice try with the 77% YOY

The other person, the licenced one, writes things that would do well with either trudeau or harper. People of good reputation know that what you require is of the primary conditions(tmm)

This one represents about as good a deal as you're going to get.
Decent house - check
Lot size near std -check
Suite - check
Neighborhood - check

AND ITS CHANGED HANDS AT 1.3 MILLION.

Thats about the bottom line on a decent house folks...$1,300,000. And this one was original condition with no renos
Bigger house add $
Bigger lot add $
Renovated add $
Etc
An upgrade on the same block sold at 1.5M

2714 Graveley Street
1901sqft detached built 1937
33x113 RS-1 lot
Asking $1,298,000
Sold $1,295,000 on 31-January-2017

Quiet street across from Clinton Park just minutes away from DT! Long time owner has decided to sell! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom gem sits on a flat 33.5' x 113.19' lot with views of Clinton Park and the North Shore Mountains. The home has been lovingly cared for and some of the most recent updates include brand new one bedroom in-law suite, furnace, hot water tank, windows and painting (roof approx 12 yrs old). There are 3 bedrooms up and one bedroom down. The living room has beautiful hardwood flooring that is in excellent condition and a wood burning fireplace. The basement has windows that sit above ground and is fully finished with separate entry, shared laundry and large storage room that could be turned into a den or 5th bedroom.

The things that ETB are posting are facts.
House x sold for this much over asking price at this date <- this is a fact.

But you need to put things into context and do some statistical analysis. You can't post 10 examples and claim that you know what's going on in the market.

There were 440 detached sales on the month of January 2017 according to REBGV Stats.
Posting one or two sales here and there has no STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE when analyzing direction of the market or its current state.
Even if you posted 20 sales over ask prices for this month, it only represents 4% of sales, where does that lie in the distribution curve?

The real cognitive dissonance is believing that you know what's going on in the market with a couple of over ask sales.
While these sales posts are nice, they do not represent the market.

You need more samples for your conclusion to mean anything. 
Here is something significant - on 2016 there were 1929 Detached sales.
Compare this to this year's January of 440 - that is a 77% decrease in sales YoY (ouch!).

Now I'm going to be fair about this and take my own advice, you have to be critical of the data. 
In my example, the data is sales volume. Sales volume does NOT necessarily dictate prices. Therefore if volume is down, it does not equate to prices going down.
What it does mean is that there is less activity in the market.
This can be either due to people being priced out, or owners just don't want to sell - or both.

Furthermore, the data is one month out of the year which is less than 10% of a full year's data. It will be more significant if the trend for a span of 6 months is analyzed.

This is why Trends are so nice to look at, as long as the Raw Data that was used is statistically significant and not manipulated. There's a lot of historical data and samples in the trends.
People here need to think more critically of what the data and facts really mean and put it into perspective. Otherwise you're just making un-educated guesses.

ETB posts alternative facts.  Would fit in quite nicely on team Trump.

Most of the time the asking price is an alternative reality - makes himself feel better that way.

Market falling apart and ETB is shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic - LOL

Lol that's some funny stuff.
The data clearly shows the market is down.
He corrected my calculations from sales falling (-77%) to (-59%) now the market isn't down anymore. 
Realtor Logic for the win

jk yzfr, please keep posting data they are useful.  

This one represents about as good a deal as you're going to get.
Decent house - check
Lot size near std -check
Suite - check
Neighborhood - check

AND ITS CHANGED HANDS AT 1.3 MILLION.

Thats about the bottom line on a decent house folks...$1,300,000. And this one was original condition with no renos
Bigger house add $
Bigger lot add $
Renovated add $
Etc
An upgrade on the same block sold at 1.5M

2714 Graveley Street
1901sqft detached built 1937
33x113 RS-1 lot
Asking $1,298,000
Sold $1,295,000 on 31-January-2017

Quiet street across from Clinton Park just minutes away from DT! Long time owner has decided to sell! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom gem sits on a flat 33.5' x 113.19' lot with views of Clinton Park and the North Shore Mountains. The home has been lovingly cared for and some of the most recent updates include brand new one bedroom in-law suite, furnace, hot water tank, windows and painting (roof approx 12 yrs old). There are 3 bedrooms up and one bedroom down. The living room has beautiful hardwood flooring that is in excellent condition and a wood burning fireplace. The basement has windows that sit above ground and is fully finished with separate entry, shared laundry and large storage room that could be turned into a den or 5th bedroom.

Good post, how much do you think this would have sold 6 months ago? I'm curious to see what your answer is.

tdma800, who is currently on your ignore list, made this post.
Display this post.

 
tdma800, who is currently on your ignore list, made this post.
Display this post.

What are you saying? lol

This one represents about as good a deal as you're going to get.
Decent house - check
Lot size near std -check
Suite - check
Neighborhood - check

AND ITS CHANGED HANDS AT 1.3 MILLION.

Thats about the bottom line on a decent house folks...$1,300,000. And this one was original condition with no renos
Bigger house add $
Bigger lot add $
Renovated add $
Etc
An upgrade on the same block sold at 1.5M

2714 Graveley Street
1901sqft detached built 1937
33x113 RS-1 lot
Asking $1,298,000
Sold $1,295,000 on 31-January-2017

Quiet street across from Clinton Park just minutes away from DT! Long time owner has decided to sell! This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom gem sits on a flat 33.5' x 113.19' lot with views of Clinton Park and the North Shore Mountains. The home has been lovingly cared for and some of the most recent updates include brand new one bedroom in-law suite, furnace, hot water tank, windows and painting (roof approx 12 yrs old). There are 3 bedrooms up and one bedroom down. The living room has beautiful hardwood flooring that is in excellent condition and a wood burning fireplace. The basement has windows that sit above ground and is fully finished with separate entry, shared laundry and large storage room that could be turned into a den or 5th bedroom.

Looks good also that the other writer is pretty stodgy and not entertaining at all

I can't stress enough, no one is claiming the market is not dipressed or slow. Atleast from what I can gather from ETB and myself. I think ETB and myself have been advocation the bottom hasn't fallen out completely.

Its down but not at sensationalized as expected.

I personally feel the market is taking a breather, looking for a backstop in prices / confidence or something. I think this spring will be a good indicator.

I still believe we won't see a massive correction.. I don't think enough has happened to completely stop the trend and make it go the other direction


The market has three movements
(1) The "main movement", primary movement or major trend may last from less than a year to several years. It can be bullish or bearish. (2) The "medium swing", secondary reaction or intermediate reaction may last from ten days to three months and generally retraces from 33% to 66% of the primary price change since the previous medium swing or start of the main movement. (3) The "short swing" or minor movement varies with opinion from hours to a month or more. The three movements may be simultaneous, for instance, a daily minor movement in a bearish secondary reaction in a bullish primary movement.