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reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 3:48 pm

Sales r down because most sellers are still asking for the moon. Have just seen one detached narrow lot sell for above assessed price and barely lasted a week
In other words - sales r down because buyers won't pay the moon  :lol:
Where or where have the buyers gone.....
 
rofina
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:05 pm

West Van, and Van West sales slump in January 2017 will beat the all time low of January 2009.

Tough to ignore that Jan 2017 is a worse year for luxury sales than the low of the financial crisis. 

Also tough to ignore that pool of buyers at $2,000,000+ is largely limited to foreign buyers.

Hard to imagine high end going illiquid and down, without a knock on effect on East Side and periphery. 

I imagine condos might perform better, as they are largely local economy FTB driven.
I heard the 5+ million market is in trouble. But unlike 2009 when you'd see about 100 listings under 2M, there are currently only 4 listings sub 2M on the west side.
Sounds about right, it will take a real correction to see hundredths of listings under 2 million in Van West, simply because prices have moved up astronomically since the 09 lows.
I just don't see how an erosion of confidence on this scale in the high end, doesn't eventually translate to rest of market. That being said - not sure what it means big picture. To have any meaningful impact on this market would require some significant distressed sales. Not sure how likely that is. 
Illiquidity is the real killer - if spec builders start getting squeezed that will make a noticeable dent on the market. Lots of builders were willing to snap up tear downs and build on spec, if they disappear thats a lot of bids gone. 
Whats of most interest is the source of the money crunch - not capital or debt markets, its Chinese policy itself thats having a meaningful impact on capital outflows. This might be the first time China has succeeded in preventing outflows, and specifically targeting outflows for international RE purchases. 
This is a very targeted attack that appears to be having an impact on the global RE hotspots. 
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:05 pm

Experienced people know that its all about the debt markets since its a lot harder for people to get a high ratio loan these days.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:44 pm

West Van, and Van West sales slump in January 2017 will beat the all time low of January 2009.

Tough to ignore that Jan 2017 is a worse year for luxury sales than the low of the financial crisis. 

Also tough to ignore that pool of buyers at $2,000,000+ is largely limited to foreign buyers.

Hard to imagine high end going illiquid and down, without a knock on effect on East Side and periphery. 

I imagine condos might perform better, as they are largely local economy FTB driven.
I heard the 5+ million market is in trouble. But unlike 2009 when you'd see about 100 listings under 2M, there are currently only 4 listings sub 2M on the west side.
Sounds about right, it will take a real correction to see hundredths of listings under 2 million in Van West, simply because prices have moved up astronomically since the 09 lows.
I just don't see how an erosion of confidence on this scale in the high end, doesn't eventually translate to rest of market. That being said - not sure what it means big picture. To have any meaningful impact on this market would require some significant distressed sales. Not sure how likely that is. 
Illiquidity is the real killer - if spec builders start getting squeezed that will make a noticeable dent on the market. Lots of builders were willing to snap up tear downs and build on spec, if they disappear thats a lot of bids gone. 
Whats of most interest is the source of the money crunch - not capital or debt markets, its Chinese policy itself thats having a meaningful impact on capital outflows. This might be the first time China has succeeded in preventing outflows, and specifically targeting outflows for international RE purchases. 
This is a very targeted attack that appears to be having an impact on the global RE hotspots. 
You make it sound like Chinese will stop immigrating here...shut-off a 100 year flow.
There are 10s millions of middle class Chinese who aren't money laundering who want to come here. They arent buying on the west side.
I just dont be a collapse likely in the sub 2M detached market.
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:12 pm

Clearly you haven't been paying attention - tap has been shut off.  Sales numbers are down about 75% from last year.. and 50% from 10 year average.

drip drip drip - this is the new Chinese water torture... especially for realtors
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:10 pm

Clearly you haven't been paying attention - tap has been shut off.  Sales numbers are down about 75% from last year.. and 50% from 10 year average.

drip drip drip - this is the new Chinese water torture... especially for realtors
Wont last. Watch and learn
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:20 pm

Must be hard - waking up every single day the past 8 months knowing you are wrong.... seeing your futile examples of a hot market pop up twice a month rather than multiple times daily... you believed the hype.

Where or where have the buyers gone....
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:51 pm

Short term ebbs in the market make very little difference. We're in for the long haul

The ones I see predicting crash and devastation are the ones with income and wealth so low they have no choice but to cling to this belief. Reality check here fella...this ain't Brandon, Manitoba
 
rofina
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:24 am


I heard the 5+ million market is in trouble. But unlike 2009 when you'd see about 100 listings under 2M, there are currently only 4 listings sub 2M on the west side.
Sounds about right, it will take a real correction to see hundredths of listings under 2 million in Van West, simply because prices have moved up astronomically since the 09 lows.
I just don't see how an erosion of confidence on this scale in the high end, doesn't eventually translate to rest of market. That being said - not sure what it means big picture. To have any meaningful impact on this market would require some significant distressed sales. Not sure how likely that is. 
Illiquidity is the real killer - if spec builders start getting squeezed that will make a noticeable dent on the market. Lots of builders were willing to snap up tear downs and build on spec, if they disappear thats a lot of bids gone. 
Whats of most interest is the source of the money crunch - not capital or debt markets, its Chinese policy itself thats having a meaningful impact on capital outflows. This might be the first time China has succeeded in preventing outflows, and specifically targeting outflows for international RE purchases. 
This is a very targeted attack that appears to be having an impact on the global RE hotspots. 
You make it sound like Chinese will stop immigrating here...shut-off a 100 year flow.
There are 10s millions of middle class Chinese who aren't money laundering who want to come here. They arent buying on the west side.
I just dont be a collapse likely in the sub 2M detached market.
No, I don't suspect they will stop immigrating at all.  
I just seriously doubt their ability to purchase property here - precisely $0 of the maximum $50,000 per year is now allowed to go towards foreign RE purchases, as of Jan 2nd. 
They risk audit and confiscation of assets at home if found flaunting the law. The stories out of AUS are convincing enough - many would rather walk away from hefty pre-sale deposits than risk getting more money offshore. 
Smurfing, etc is all a thing of the past if China keeps up on this crackdown.
 
rofina
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:27 am

Short term ebbs in the market make very little difference. We're in for the long haul

The ones I see predicting crash and devastation are the ones with income and wealth so low they have no choice but to cling to this belief. Reality check here fella...this ain't Brandon, Manitoba
Is anyone even left predicting a crash anymore? What does that even mean in Vancouver?
New condos DT going for $1500-$3000 a square foot these days, building lots for $1.2 million, houses for over $2 million. 
Would a crash be like 75%? Thats the only amount I see making things affordable. 
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:28 am


I heard the 5+ million market is in trouble. But unlike 2009 when you'd see about 100 listings under 2M, there are currently only 4 listings sub 2M on the west side.
Sounds about right, it will take a real correction to see hundredths of listings under 2 million in Van West, simply because prices have moved up astronomically since the 09 lows.
I just don't see how an erosion of confidence on this scale in the high end, doesn't eventually translate to rest of market. That being said - not sure what it means big picture. To have any meaningful impact on this market would require some significant distressed sales. Not sure how likely that is. 
Illiquidity is the real killer - if spec builders start getting squeezed that will make a noticeable dent on the market. Lots of builders were willing to snap up tear downs and build on spec, if they disappear thats a lot of bids gone. 
Whats of most interest is the source of the money crunch - not capital or debt markets, its Chinese policy itself thats having a meaningful impact on capital outflows. This might be the first time China has succeeded in preventing outflows, and specifically targeting outflows for international RE purchases. 
This is a very targeted attack that appears to be having an impact on the global RE hotspots. 
You make it sound like Chinese will stop immigrating here...shut-off a 100 year flow.
There are 10s millions of middle class Chinese who aren't money laundering who want to come here. They arent buying on the west side.
I just dont be a collapse likely in the sub 2M detached market.
There are tons more Chinese that can come here compared to a year ago and they only have to put in half the amount of the previous required amount to obtain residency in BC . to the moon!
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:01 am

Short term ebbs in the market make very little difference. We're in for the long haul

The ones I see predicting crash and devastation are the ones with income and wealth so low they have no choice but to cling to this belief. Reality check here fella...this ain't Brandon, Manitoba
Is anyone even left predicting a crash anymore? What does that even mean in Vancouver?
New condos DT going for $1500-$3000 a square foot these days, building lots for $1.2 million, houses for over $2 million. 
Would a crash be like 75%? Thats the only amount I see making things affordable. 
ETB is just having a tough time because today is yet another day that he woke up wrong about RE.
January 2017 stats should be out soon and I am sure the realtors in the city will be seen drowning their sorrows as sales are down, prices are down and morale for realtors is...down.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:16 am

People in and about are having a happy moment and it is also more weeks that people are correct about homes. People will be partying in and out on the streets, and of course enjoying the limited supply and joy level 5.
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:17 am

Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:42 am

Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
Then why oh why are prices down?  LOL 

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