West Van, and Van West sales slump in January 2017 will beat the all time low of January 2009.
Tough to ignore that Jan 2017 is a worse year for luxury sales than the low of the financial crisis.
Also tough to ignore that pool of buyers at $2,000,000+ is largely limited to foreign buyers.
Hard to imagine high end going illiquid and down, without a knock on effect on East Side and periphery.
I imagine condos might perform better, as they are largely local economy FTB driven.
I heard the 5+ million market is in trouble. But unlike 2009 when you'd see about 100 listings under 2M, there are currently only 4 listings sub 2M on the west side.
Sounds about right, it will take a real correction to see hundredths of listings under 2 million in Van West, simply because prices have moved up astronomically since the 09 lows.
I just don't see how an erosion of confidence on this scale in the high end, doesn't eventually translate to rest of market. That being said - not sure what it means big picture. To have any meaningful impact on this market would require some significant distressed sales. Not sure how likely that is.
Illiquidity is the real killer - if spec builders start getting squeezed that will make a noticeable dent on the market. Lots of builders were willing to snap up tear downs and build on spec, if they disappear thats a lot of bids gone.
Whats of most interest is the source of the money crunch - not capital or debt markets, its Chinese policy itself thats having a meaningful impact on capital outflows. This might be the first time China has succeeded in preventing outflows, and specifically targeting outflows for international RE purchases.
This is a very targeted attack that appears to be having an impact on the global RE hotspots.