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tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:47 am

Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
Well in addition that sales and the prices are up for people that are actually here. Ontario doesnt count
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:27 am

I'm not saying "to the moon" no one believes that prices will shoot up forever. However as time and prices have gone up, reverting to the mean seems less and less likely. Things will continue to trend up and down however I think things will never "trade" and previous levels again as equity has built up and will support a much higher price compared to past.

So in equity terms, the price has gapped up and has and will find support and resistance above previous moving averages.


Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
Then why oh why are prices down?  LOL 
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:35 am

price is set at the margins - not by the person that isn't selling or isn't buying.  
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:43 am

To infinity and beyond!   The prices are set by the market, not necessarily by the buyer
 
2000sqft
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:15 pm

Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
Then why oh why are prices down?  LOL 
LOL you must be new to investing...things don't continually shoot up without some sort of bounce back at some point...seriously put down the newspaper and read a book or something
To the moon and beyond!...at $2000 per sq ft
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:17 pm

Coming from the guy that has "to the moon" in his sig - LOL
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:22 pm

Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
Then why oh why are prices down?  LOL 
LOL you must be new to investing...things don't continually shoot up without some sort of bounce back at some point...seriously put down the newspaper and read a book or something
books are hard for the challenged
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:09 pm

Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
Then why oh why are prices down?  LOL 
LOL you must be new to investing...things don't continually shoot up without some sort of bounce back at some point...seriously put down the newspaper and read a book or something
I don't think you read my post carefully. In the odd event you are not a child and or troll, I clearly stated the price can and will come down. What you failed to understand about my whole comment was the building of equity and reduction of outstanding mortgage. Apple Inc. equities traded at a few dollars in the early 2000's, the reason why it will never trade back down there again is because of equity. Even the land, building and patents support a price higher then a few dollars. Like wise with Vancouver real estate, as prices keep going up and as time elapses people will continue to pay off their mortgage building real equity instead of market appreciation.  This will continue to add support to the prices and prevent prices from "trading" at pre boom levels. Not saying it will not trend down but it is highly unlikely to trade at pre boom prices (which is what bears are hoping for)
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:22 pm

Then why are prices down? Shouldnt all these people with "equity" be holding out for "to the moon" prices?

LOL - proof is in the stats. Falling apart.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:23 pm

Then why oh why are prices down?  LOL 
LOL you must be new to investing...things don't continually shoot up without some sort of bounce back at some point...seriously put down the newspaper and read a book or something
I don't think you read my post carefully. In the odd event you are not a child and or troll, I clearly stated the price can and will come down. What you failed to understand about my whole comment was the building of equity and reduction of outstanding mortgage. Apple Inc. equities traded at a few dollars in the early 2000's, the reason why it will never trade back down there again is because of equity. Even the land, building and patents support a price higher then a few dollars. Like wise with Vancouver real estate, as prices keep going up and as time elapses people will continue to pay off their mortgage building real equity instead of market appreciation.  This will continue to add support to the prices and prevent prices from "trading" at pre boom levels. Not saying it will not trend down but it is highly unlikely to trade at pre boom prices (which is what bears are hoping for)
People are coming together. Also the tax free gains when selling are beneficial
 
Tsawguy
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:44 am

If I had the majority of my net worth in Vancouver real estate I would be very afraid. 

It's nice to be liquid and renting.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:39 am

If a joe average had most of their money in a Vancouver house they are living in they'd be very excited and pay no tax in the future. Others with most of their money in an RRSP instead will pay taxes in the future when they actually need to use it
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:00 am

If I had the majority of my net worth in Vancouver real estate I would be very afraid. 

It's nice to be liquid and renting.
If you dont own your residence mortgage free by age 60 you should be afraid.
Anyone who reaches that goal should breathe easy.
Home ownership is a marathon, not a sprint. Short term fluctuations are irrelevant
 
VanLord
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:15 pm

If a joe average had most of their money in a Vancouver house they are living in they'd be very excited and pay no tax in the future. Others with most of their money in an RRSP instead will pay taxes in the future when they actually need to use it
Most people prefer to have a house and an RRSP and TFSA.  That way you can take advantage of the PR exemption as well as tax free gains on other investments.  Especially when an RRSP allows you to save taxes at the highest tax bracket and ideally pay taxes on them later in a much lower tax bracket.
 
VanBullBear
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:03 pm

I'm not saying "to the moon" no one believes that prices will shoot up forever. However as time and prices have gone up, reverting to the mean seems less and less likely. Things will continue to trend up and down however I think things will never "trade" and previous levels again as equity has built up and will support a much higher price compared to past.

So in equity terms, the price has gapped up and has and will find support and resistance above previous moving averages.


Since that last drop in 2008, its been almost 10 years. All the people who bought are already half way through their 20 year mortgage. There is not only equity from appreciation but also repayment of principle. As time draws out there will be less and less chance of a catastrophic copllase due to distressed sells.

Even if the market slowly goes down, there will be no epic correction. There needs to be some sort of huge financial disaster and force lots and lots of people underwater and force to fire sell, massive un employment or 20% interest rates. People will hold onto their property and erode equity before they fire sell.

So the longer this draws out the less likelyhood of something crazy happening.

Sorry bears.
No need to be sorry for the bears, the market is still in a downturn.

Lets clarify a few things here, the first being time frame. We are all bullish with vancouver RE on a decades timeframe, i dont think anyone disagrees that in the long run van should go up. With that said, on a yearly time frame, we are currently going through a correction.

I have to say your analogy with equity is not an accurate comparison. The van RE did not gap up, the market does not close overnight, there was no event that occured that could cause a gap in the market. More importantly, it has not found support. You can not claim that there is a support because the market is still falling. A support would mean that there are enough buyers to prevent the prices from decreasing. We will eventually find a support but not yet at these price ranges.

You cant apply moving average technical analysis on this market because you dont have the data. The best you have are the average prices that the board releases monthly which is lacking for that kind of analysis. You would need to have open,close, high and low on a daily/weekly time-frame to be able to make any meaningful analysis of this kind.

Lastly, please realize that the timeframe for realestate is much slower than that of equities. You may think that a few months of price decline is a long time for realestate but its actually not. A 15 to 20% decline in less than a year is indicative of price rejection. Make no mistake, we are not consolidating or finding support in the current conditions - the price has been rejected and prices are heading down just looking purely at the numbers. There are no buyers, there is no support.

I want to clarify that this is for the detached market. Townhomes ans condos seem to be finding support from local buyers. With that said, if detached prices keep falling at this rate, it will trickle down to the non detached market.

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