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Invisiblehand
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:43 pm

how effective has Beta been at timing the market?

Assuming she buys in Burnaby where her current residence is, or
e. Vancouver which is an entry level market for SFH

Burnaby:
trough = 641,439 (Dec/08)
current = 711,613
total $ lost = 70,174

E. Vancouver:
trough = 579,761 (Dec/08)
current = 661,563
total $ lost = 81,802

thank god she's wealthy and the above totals are a drop of water in an endless sea.
bump - not to poke a stick at beta...but it's an illustration of just how wrong bears have been at timing the market - and in some areas they're getting "wronger" by the month.
My advice to bears - don't miss the next trough (if there is one :lol: )

Burnaby detached
trough = 641,439 (Dec 2008)
current = 787,865
total $ lost = 146,426

E. Vancouver detached
trough 579,761 (Dec 2008)
current 756,067
total $ lost = 176,306
Lets keeps this updated month by month. Who has the new numbers? I want to see how wronger I bin.
"Do you think these girls like me? NO, they like my money!"
 
Taipan
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:56 pm

..
Last edited by Taipan on Mon Aug 12, 2013 6:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WCLease
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:33 pm

Does ups and downs of housing market really affect the average person?
Sure they feel richer when their house is worth more.
If you own multiple properties then at least you can cash out at or near the top.
Regular person can't do that.
Most will be content to let it ride and hope to own the house after the mortgage ends.
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:53 am

just a reminder on how effective timing the market has been for bears... who thought that the Dec 2008 values were only the beginning of a
long slide down to their utopia

Burnaby:
trough = 641,439 (Dec/08)
current = 793,428
total $ lost = 151,989

E. Vancouver:
trough = 579,761 (Dec/08)
current = 744,677
total $ lost = 164,916

so bears now waiting for well below above listed trough prices before even considering buying. Looks like a life of
renting to me.

BTW bears, note the E. Vancouver increase. Total $ bear loss = ETB gain
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
Johnny Horton
Site Admin

Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 10:15 am

Timing the market....hahahahaha...
TurdPuppets can't time an egg. :P
 
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semven
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 10:42 am

Does ups and downs of housing market really affect the average person?
Sure they feel richer when their house is worth more.
If you own multiple properties then at least you can cash out at or near the top.
Regular person can't do that.
Most will be content to let it ride and hope to own the house after the mortgage ends.
Absolutely agree with this post. Buying land thats already at its highest and best use leaves limited room for profit. If you are buying a home SFH on a large lot |(preferably corner lot) Is always your best bet. Immigration and population growth will always be with us. I am so surprised that another poster on this forum who is supposed to be a developer has not imparted this advice on anyone. If you check my posts or even ask Johnny or Thompson I have always said that Condos as investments suck, if there ever is any upside potential they will just build more, and when they do, the real developers will be eying and byeing land that is not already at its highest and best use...look to Surrey
 
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jesse1
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 10:57 am

If you check my posts or even ask Johnny or Thompson I have always said that Condos as investments suck
They don't always suck. An underutilized piece of land will increase in value as its highest and best use increases. I don't think any bear will argue with you on that. But I don't think it's a free lunch. You pay a premium today vis a vis rents since cash flows are delayed. Anyone renting a 60 year old westside bungalow should realize this.

I agree the market to watch for distress is condos. I think most regular posters here will agree condos in Vancouver are overpriced, and it's telling that many who are labeled as "bulls" are actually "bearish" on condos! It's nice to find some "common ground" every once and a while, even if it's a fully densified and stratified postage stamp.
 
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registered
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:07 am

Self-contradictory hand waving. How can you get higher residential use from a parcel of land than multi-tenant structures like condos or apartments? They top that criteria for profit yet are shitty investment vehicles? And tying population to home prices has been proving wrong over, and over, and over. Look out yer fucking window. Can you see more populous, higher density (<rogers any 'out of land'' BS) cities with lower home prices from your house? You betcha.
the dogs bark but the caravan moves on
 
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jesse1
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:11 am

And tying population to home prices has been proving wrong over, and over, and over.
Tying density increases to LAND values seems reasonable to me. I don't think it's as large an effect as people think.
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:18 am

Does ups and downs of housing market really affect the average person?
Sure they feel richer when their house is worth more.
If you own multiple properties then at least you can cash out at or near the top.
Regular person can't do that.
Most will be content to let it ride and hope to own the house after the mortgage ends.
Absolutely agree with this post. Buying land thats already at its highest and best use leaves limited room for profit. If you are buying a home SFH on a large lot |(preferably corner lot) Is always your best bet. Immigration and population growth will always be with us. I am so surprised that another poster on this forum who is supposed to be a developer has not imparted this advice on anyone. If you check my posts or even ask Johnny or Thompson I have always said that Condos as investments suck, if there ever is any upside potential they will just build more, and when they do, the real developers will be eying and byeing land that is not already at its highest and best use...look to Surrey
I think Cloverdale is a better buy than Surrey. Less negative reputation
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
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semven
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:38 pm

I think Cloverdale is a better buy than Surrey. Less negative reputation
Now youre splitting hairs and not seeing the point Im trying to make.
Point is, that passively investing in real estate, like buying a condo and hoping that it will increase in a straight line over time doesnt really blow my dress up. (never has) This whole forum saw its best years in the Pre Sale era.
If people are going to drink Taipans Kool Aid about being an investor, then they need to realize that his charts, diagrams and pictures have less to do with development than his Hotel choice in Goosecrotch Montanna.
A developer might say, " Im gonna throw down for a ski chalet in Whistler" but hes never going to analyze it as an investment based on what is going on in Vancouver. These things are already at highest and best use and thats that. Besides which they are Ski Cjhalets ffs. Might as well say Vail CO is overpriced because the locals all work as ski lift operators.
a developer might say something like "Hey you want a good deal in Whistler, buy the first place going towrds Pemberton")I cant say for sure but I think that ship has already sailed too.. I think Pemberton saw some good growth)
a developer might also do something like BUY a ski hill and then build chalets around it eg: Ralph Berezan and Hemlock Valley (3 million I think) and I for one am really rooting for Berezan on that play

PS Thanks Jesse and can you put a blanket on Regis until he wakes up?
 
horus
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:39 pm

If you are buying a home SFH on a large lot |(preferably corner lot) Is always your best bet. Immigration and population growth will always be with us.
I don't get it why some were at my throat whenever I brought up the subject of population growth/Imm. I'm seeing tons of them. On another topic, a househunter complained that all the open houses he went to in the past few weeks on the westside, eastside and Richmond were packed with people.
I have always said that Condos as investments suck, if there ever is any upside potential they will just build more, and when they do, the real developers will be eying and byeing land that is not already at its highest and best use...look to Surrey
Not everyone wants to live that far out in Surrey. I know many who bought condos around 2002-2006, have had their units doubled and tripled in values.
Like JH said anyone can post on the internet, don't take everything too seriously. Live and let live.
 
Johnny Horton
Site Admin

Re: Betameter - timing the market

Sat Jan 08, 2011 10:09 pm

Live and let live.
Amen. :mrgreen:
 
eyesthebye
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Wed Mar 02, 2011 12:34 pm

just a reminder on how effective timing the market has been for bears... who thought that the Dec 2008 values were only the beginning of a
long slide down to their utopia

Burnaby:
trough = 641,439 (Dec/08)
current = 793,428
total $ lost = 151,989

E. Vancouver:
trough = 579,761 (Dec/08)
current = 744,677
total $ lost = 164,916

so bears now waiting for well below above listed trough prices before even considering buying. Looks like a life of
renting to me.

BTW bears, note the E. Vancouver increase. Total $ bear loss = ETB gain
welcome back betamax - here's a present for ya

E. Vancouver:
trough = 579,761 (Dec/08)
current = 777,210
total $ lost = 197,449

Burnaby:
trough = 641,439 (Dec/08)
current = 847,864
total $ lost = 206,425
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
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betamax
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Re: Betameter - timing the market

Wed Mar 02, 2011 12:53 pm

LOL. Thanks for bringing back the Betameter! I should bookmark this thing so I can refer back to it when the market corrects like everyone knows it will.

Oh wait, continuing bubbly prices are proof that a crash won't happen. Immigrants will keep the market alive. Like in Florida. It's different here, this time. LOL.

Keep the Betameter going, I enjoy seeing how irrationally high prices are getting. It's just going to be a bigger drop when they tank.
"I've never seen a soft landing in 53 years" - Angelo Mozilo
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