AUGUST 11, 2020
One of the driving forces behind Canadian real estate prices is on hold – immigration. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows the number of newly admitted permanent residents to Canada is still making sharp declines in June. The decline was mostly consistent around the country, except in BC and Quebec. The former is seeing a smaller than average decline, and the latter a larger than average.
Permanent Residents To Canada Down Over 44%
The number of new permanent residents arriving in Canada is on the decline. There were just 19,175 people admitted in June, down 44.2% from the same month last year. Year-to-date (YTD), this is now just 103,420 admitted people, down 35.5% from last year. The annual decline is softened by large growth in the first two months of this year. Even with that increase, we’re still seeing a lag in growth.
New Permanent Residents To Ontario Drops Over 41%
Ontario is where almost half of the total permanent residents admitted moved. The province represents 9,145 permanent residents admitted in June, down 41.8% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 48,455 people admitted, down 35.1% compared to last year. For the province, this would be the lowest rate of admittance in at least half a decade, but likely much longer. A larger monthly decline than YTD implies declines are getting larger.
New Permanent Residents To BC Drops Over 20%
British Columbia (B.C.) is the second largest province for permanent resident arrivals. The province saw 3,990 permanent residents admitted in June, down 20.7% from the same month last year. Year-to-date there were 17,205 people admitted, down 23.64% from the same period last year. B.C. is actually the province seeing the smallest declines of any province in Canada. The smaller monthly decline than YTD implies the declines are improving.
New Permanent Residents To Quebec Drops Over 64%
Quebec has been seeing a steady slide in the number of permanent residents admitted for a few years now. The province only saw 1,365 permanent residents admitted in June, down 64.7% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 10,950 people, down 39.9% compared to the same period last year. This one isn’t entirely due to the pandemic though, since permanent residents arriving in Quebec peaked in 2017 for the month of June.
The decline in permanent residents is almost entirely due to the pandemic. We’re likely to see these numbers rise as global restrictions ease into next year. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of people expected to create housing demand aren’t coming, or won’t be coming for a while.
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-imm ... p-over-44/
Canadian Permanent Resident Change – June
The percent change in permanent residents admitted to Canada for the month of June, compared to last year. Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.