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Geyser
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Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:06 am

Oh dear, they're even talking about our current home price collapse on the TV news in Missouri!

http://www.fox14tv.com/story/32794479/v ... -hits-home
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
VanLord
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:41 am

That article will be up for a Pulitzer prize ... man you are really trolling the depths to find these award winning articles.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:29 am

Well now that Missouri has caught wind.... the end is all but a certainty.  From the article:
“Our ability to allow our members to Time the Market, is based on our core understanding of how the Canadian home selling infrastructure functions which is why many of our members took action months ago and have effectively prevented great loss to their net wealth
This is marketing material for The Wealthy Homeowner, which appears to be a RE investment club slash pyramid scheme.  I'd hardly call this "news".
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:40 pm

That article will be up for a Pulitzer prize ... man you are really trolling the depths to find these award winning articles.
This is Rentah/Geyser modus operandi
Grasping an any opportunity to convey negative news.
top 3 city in the world, high levels of immigration, scarce land. I'll bet that if the market does turn down that it won't be for long. 
 
Geyser
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:18 pm

ETB, the market has already turned down, helloooo, earth to ETB!

The source of that latest reference to our crash is Ross Kay, he's a well known bear and I don't necessarily endorse him as the most reliable prognosticator, but he is drawing international attention to our apparently bursting bubble. Whether you like it or not, his press release has been picked up by media around the world. Google it, it's everywhere.

My point, which not surprisingly was entirely missed, was that these types of news releases are spreading across Canada, the USA, China and many other places. If you prefer to think that they will have no impact, be my guest.

In my mind, having our past few months of fast falling prices widely broadcast is probably not a good thing for sellers. But hey, that's just my guess, perhaps buyers will see the 25% price drops as a great buying opportunity, but I don't think I'd hold my breath on that.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:25 pm

The source of that latest reference to our crash


Quoted for future reference.
We're in a market crash folks...Rentah is calling it.
 
Harahomes
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:15 pm

ETB, the market has already turned down, helloooo, earth to ETB!

The source of that latest reference to our crash is Ross Kay, he's a well known bear and I don't necessarily endorse him as the most reliable prognosticator, but he is drawing international attention to our apparently bursting bubble. Whether you like it or not, his press release has been picked up by media around the world. Google it, it's everywhere.

My point, which not surprisingly was entirely missed, was that these types of news releases are spreading across Canada, the USA, China and many other places. If you prefer to think that they will have no impact, be my guest.

In my mind, having our past few months of fast falling prices widely broadcast is probably not a good thing for sellers. But hey, that's just my guess, perhaps buyers will see the 25% price drops as a great buying opportunity, but I don't think I'd hold my breath on that.
Hi Geyser
Which article are you referring to?  The one written in the beginning of July?  May? 
I can't find his most resent work on this subject.  Can you please post the most resent article
Again thanks in advance
 
Geyser
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:33 pm

There have been several recent reports of our market crashing. The one we are talking about here has a link on the original post in this thread but here is the text:


Vancouver's Housing Crash Hits Home
August 18, 2016 – /PressAdvantage/ – Burlington, Aug. 18, 2016- According to data released today to The Wealthy Homeowner™, Vancouver’s housing market has crashed and prices are now plummeting.

The city of Vancouver has been the center of news headlines across North America and around the world for more than two years for its rising house prices but as was forecast earlier this year, Vancouver’s Housing Bubble has officially popped. Now six months after peak price for trade-up homes was recorded in February and after 5 consecutive months of declining values, in typical house price bubble fashion the average home buyer is now spending less than seventy-five percent of what they were paying only months ago.

“In early March we had enough data to suggest Vancouver was headed for negative year over year gains in August of this year,” Ssated Ross Kay, the creator of The Wealthy Homeowner™. “Our members were all notified in April that we had updated our opinion further as our metrics were then recording a massive withdrawal from the purchase of ultra-luxury class homes by foreign investors and that our members should take pro-active measures to protect themselves against lost wealth from pending declines in home prices that would be published months later.”

The twenty-six point four percent (-26.4%) decline already recorded in Vancouver is a record drop over any six month period anywhere in Canada and that combined with how the market was structured at the time it turned in February, will only compound the problem province wide. Canada as a nation was already recording months of declining sales in its largest market’s peripheral municipalities centered around the Greater Toronto area and even the city center of Toronto recorded declines in July. Look at on a national level Canada is now in a period of contraction and is headed towards its own bubble popping.

“Everyone mistakenly reads housing markets using metrics designed by the real estate sales industry that actually mask what is really happening in the market and prevents accurate forecasts from being issued. We use metrics others don’t, some that are latent, some coincident and others that measure what will happen in the future.” continued Mr. Kay “Our ability to allow our members to Time the Market, is based on our core understanding of how the Canadian home selling infrastructure functions which is why many of our members took action months ago and have effectively prevented great loss to their net wealth.”

Much of Canada’s economic gains recorded since December of 2015 are virtually all real estate sales related. Warnings issued by leading rating agencies about Canada’s reliance on real estate are soon to be proven correct."
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:44 pm

The source of that latest reference to our crash

Quoted for future reference.
We're in a market crash folks...Rentah is calling it.
Wow, you are so forgetful, you seem to have the attention span of a humming bird and you are confusing words like "apparently", "probable" and "downturn" with an absolute declaration of the bubble having already burst. I'm certainly calling a bubble but please re-read the comment I posted yesterday, the one you already seem to have forgotten. Here it is again for the slow learners:

"Agreed, hence my statement yesterday:
"I think it may be well beyond October before we know with any certainty that the bubble has burst. If it follows the typical pattern there should be a sharp drop (which already appears underway), followed by a modest but short-lived recovery, followed by a massive collapse. It could be next spring before the really big plunge."


In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:01 am

 TheJeez, you are so forgetful, you can't even remember when you made previous claims about me being the permabear called Rentah, I shot you down with all  this following evidence from the archives:

                -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
who was the former member who thought he could talk the market down?
Rentah...Geyser...is that you?  [img=15x17]http://www.realestatetalks.com/images/s ... on_lol.gif[/img]
Just to put a final nail in the coffin of your "Geyser is Rentah" obsession, here is an old post of mine where I was defending myself against Taipan's claim that I was a perma-bull. How could that have been neccessarry if I had been trying to "talk the market down". I suspect that you and Taipan are amongst the very few who are silly and self important enough to think that your or anybody elese's ramblings on this forum would effect the direction of the market. 

It's an absurd idea but go ahead and keep trying to pump your neighbourhood while you try to dump your house. [img=15x17]http://www.realestatetalks.com/images/s ... on_lol.gif[/img]

Here's that old post that proves my earlier point:
Re: Geezer, Taipan disagreements posted here
by Geyser » Mon Jun 11, 2012 7:00 pm

In response to Taipan's constant claims that I am a permabull let's look at what I posted way back in January 2009. Hmmm, not bad!

By geezer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:45 pm 
I agree with you but a number of posters here seem to think that if the market has another correction (like last winter?) there will be a rush for the exits and supply will shoot up at a never before seen rate. It could happen but I find it highly unlikely, at least in the next year or two, by which time the median price could be significantly higher than today.


Here are some more of my "rabid bull" declarations from way back in 2007 when I was supposedly wildly pumping the market because of my fear of a drop. If all the bulls are like me the markey is clearly doomed.

Geezer July 31st. 2007
Firstly let me point out that I am not a real bull in as much as I accept the possibility of a slowdown or reversal of prices at some point in the future. I do not subscribe to the notion that prices can only go up.

Geezer, Aug 12th. 2007
Prices can and do move in both directions, sometimes wildly.

Where is our current market heading? I don't know and neither does anybody else.

We can all say with some certainty that it will turn down at some point but this may or may not translate into a significant price drop.

I have a number of reasons to doubt that another very long or severe downturn is likely in the near future but I know I might be wrong and I would not be so bold as to say it can't happen.
[font={defaultattr}]
As I told you before, I am a long-term bull on Vancouver but I'm not as naive and inexperienced as you. I know the market moves in cycles and I recognize the growing probability (not certainty) of a big downturn in the next year or so. I realize that while you are probably trying to get out of your crippling debt by dumping your house you are unlikely to admit to that possibility, I get it.[/font]

[font={defaultattr}]                   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:22 am

If housing dose crash and burn, is rental prices going to go through the roof? All the people who sell will need to start renting? All the new comers will rent instead of buy and wold-be buyers will stay with the wait and see.

All the basement suites as well
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:33 am

If housing dose crash and burn, is rental prices going to go through the roof? All the people who sell will need to start renting? All the new comers will rent instead of buy and wold-be buyers will stay with the wait and see.

All the basement suites as well
Prices can decline (or go higher) without high volume of sales. I suspect that if prices do decline, there will be significantly less volume so "all the people who sell" will likely be a smaller figure than were selling last year.
As far as rental prices, they detached from purchase prices a decade ago. It would be difficult to show any factual correlation to rental vs sales prices in the greater Vancouver market. 
 
VanLord
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:20 am

If housing dose crash and burn, is rental prices going to go through the roof? All the people who sell will need to start renting? All the new comers will rent instead of buy and wold-be buyers will stay with the wait and see.

All the basement suites as well
Prices can decline (or go higher) without high volume of sales. I suspect that if prices do decline, there will be significantly less volume so "all the people who sell" will likely be a smaller figure than were selling last year.
As far as rental prices, they detached from purchase prices a decade ago. It would be difficult to show any factual correlation to rental vs sales prices in the greater Vancouver market. 
Rental prices are already predicted to rise significantly, but the theory put forward (by yzfr) is based on an increase in demand for rental housing due to current owners presumably moving into rentals as well as newcomers avoiding buying and being forced to rent. Its not really a correlation to sales prices.  I think rent wasn't able to keep up with the sale price increases over the last decade because people couldn't afford to pay higher rents as well as the limits that are in place to stop landlords from jacking up rents.
I suspect this has some merit, due to that fact that rental supply is already extremely tight and further demand will lead to more price increases.  I also suspect we will see a downturn in new developments given the current weakness and the uncertainty caused by the new tax.  Certainly all new developments will grind to a halt if Geyser is correct and we go off a cliff.  This will take a few years to play out, but I'm sure that developers who are in the design phase or close to construction are going to delay their projects.  This will mean fewer rentals coming on line in the future. 
 
rofina
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:59 am

Desirable markets down south showed rents remaining strong, and subsequently skyrocketing shortly after their RE fiasco.

I would expect the same here;
  •  Increase demand for Vancouver once (if?) prices ever reach lower levels.
  • Inability of new residents to buy due to multitude of issues;
  1. Credit restrictions
  2. Transient nature of job opportunity
  3. Perceived fear of RE market
  • Strong rental increase with stagnant or inflation level price rises, leading to compelling ownership metrics.
I think the stage is set for this - this town is booming; film, tech, mining, its all go. This is already leading to record rent increases.

Throw in reduced housing purchase costs and some long time fundamentals will begin to turn in favour of the investor vs speculator.



 
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: Vancouver's housing market crash hits home.

Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:31 am

Valid points, but if the housing market suffers / construction lags, the economic impacts could be far reaching.

The building industry impacts have been discussed on this site at some length - many have said that it is the number 1 industry (behind BC's # 1 export business) supporting the overall local economy. When real estate agents, marketing coordinators, mortgage brokers, the far reaching construction industry (engineers, tradespeople, material suppliers, equipment renters, etc.) all experience a slow down, consumer spending goes into the toilet. Especially when homeowners don't feel as wealthy as they did only a few months ago. When they stop spending money: retailers, industry, restaurants, car dealerships, and so on, the suffering is widespread.

Much like purchasers of real estate, renters can only rent what they can pay. It's a much more fluid market. If there is a slow down for jobs, renters will move to where the jobs are. The typical renter isn't speculating on whether rents are going to rise or fall - they are simply looking for a place they can afford. 

Although, I don't think it will be all doom and gloom: If housing prices correct, my guess is that rents will remain stable / rise close to the rate of inflation.


  
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