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tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:24 am

Unnamed individuals are just saying another way to be jealous, and in particular, they are likely not of good reputation and do not have the access that people in Ontario are even suing the board to get.
 
reallyreal2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:50 am

Gotta love google translate!

:lol: :D
 
Geyser
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:19 pm

Gotta love google translate!

:lol: :D
Yeah, it looks like it still needs a lot of work. :lol:
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:43 pm

Gotta love google translate!

:lol: :D
 +1
Too bad that you can't get any education with Google Translate!  :lol:

Meanwhile, the fundamentals have changed. Things get ugly in UK...

"Foreigners in London ‘Horrified’ by May’s Immigration Vision

... Home Secretary Amber Rudd this week proposed to punish banks and landlords who fail to make checks on foreigners doing business with them. It’s part of the government’s strategy to address public concerns about immigration that were laid bare by the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union.
Nazi Flashback
A YouGov poll on Wednesday of 5,875 adults found that 59 percent of people support those policies, showing that Rudd and May are in tune with voters. That is of little comfort to the swathes of foreign-born Londoners, many of whom have become naturalized British citizens. For some, there are parallels with pre-World War II Germany.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ion-vision
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:46 pm

People in the know realize that there's a pretty good number of 34,000 or so a year coming that need a place to live, and that this is Canada, not other irrelevant places like Europe or America.
 
ipsum
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:27 pm

People in the know realize that there's a pretty good number of 34,000 or so a year coming that need a place to live, and that this is Canada, not other irrelevant places like Europe or America.
but how many of those can actually afford the price? and i bet not everyone single one of them planning to buy a place here. 
 
reallyreal2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:33 pm

People in the know realize that there's a pretty good number of 34,000 or so a year coming that need a place to live, and that this is Canada, not other irrelevant places like Europe or America.
but how many of those can actually afford the price? and i bet not everyone single one of them planning to buy a place here. 
I wouldn't worry too much about it - prices are tanking so everyone will be able to afford soon.
 
oli
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:44 pm

People in the know realize that there's a pretty good number of 34,000 or so a year coming that need a place to live, and that this is Canada, not other irrelevant places like Europe or America.
but how many of those can actually afford the price? and i bet not everyone single one of them planning to buy a place here. 
I wouldn't worry too much about it - prices are tanking so everyone will be able to afford soon.
That brings up another interesting point.  Will people dive back in if prices get back to 2014/2015 levels - 30% off?  30% off $1.5M seems like a good bargain.  Will prices get pushed back up this way then?  I can see that happening if there's no other big catastrophes - earthquake, Trump, job losses. 
 
Geyser
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:10 pm

People didn't rush back into the market when Vancouver home prices dropped between 40% and 60% in 1982. It took decades for the inflation adjusted prices to return to peak. The collapse was so fast (6 months from peak to trough) it scared away an entire generation of buyers.
 
oli
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:47 pm

People didn't rush back into the market when Vancouver home prices dropped between 40% and 60% in 1982. It took decades for the inflation adjusted prices to return to peak. The collapse was so fast (6 months from peak to trough) it scared away an entire generation of buyers.
But is this more like 2008/9 or 1982?  Agreed that # of sales have slowed down by alot, but prices are holding and everyone is just watching.  What's the biggest trigger this time - prices are just too high?
 
Geyser
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:37 pm

People didn't rush back into the market when Vancouver home prices dropped between 40% and 60% in 1982. It took decades for the inflation adjusted prices to return to peak. The collapse was so fast (6 months from peak to trough) it scared away an entire generation of buyers.
But is this more like 2008/9 or 1982?  Agreed that # of sales have slowed down by alot, but prices are holding and everyone is just watching.  What's the biggest trigger this time - prices are just too high?
If you don't believe Steve Saretsky's numbers take a look at this other realtor operated site:

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends
You will note that these realtors report that Vancouver housing prices are down 23.1% over the last quarter and a whopping 10.3% in just the last month.

Of course, if you look at the so-called "Frankennumber" (the "Benchmark" price) you will be told that according to the backward average of their mythical "typical house" price, everything is unicorns and rainbows. Choose your sources carefully.
 
oli
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:21 pm

Steve Saretsky should be listing out specific examples showing comparables in areas that went up the most the last couple of years.  ie:  Van East/Van West/Richmond/Burnaby detached.  Similar location/sqft/age/lot size.  

I don't believe in the frankenumbers put out by the board either, but averages are too broad and doesn't paint the an accurate enough picture.  For example, if there's more volume from the lower end of the market or areas, then it will bring averages down.  More expensive properties may be selling at similar prices but volume is way down (which is what we can accurately say).  
 
Geyser
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:28 am

Steve Saretsky should be listing out specific examples showing comparables in areas that went up the most the last couple of years.  ie:  Van East/Van West/Richmond/Burnaby detached.  Similar location/sqft/age/lot size.  

I don't believe in the frankenumbers put out by the board either, but averages are too broad and doesn't paint the an accurate enough picture.  For example, if there's more volume from the lower end of the market or areas, then it will bring averages down.  More expensive properties may be selling at similar prices but volume is way down (which is what we can accurately say).  
I doubt if Steve Saretsky has the time or resources to stop his regular sales work in order to collect the anecdotal evidence you suggest. Besides, his site and Zolo.ca have all the official MLS numbers anybody needs.
Whilst the "average" sales price can be distorted by a few very high priced or low priced sales, the "median" prices are a lot less susceptible to those distortions. Also, because both "average" and "median" prices have both been trending down since February and in almost free-fall more recently, we should pay attention to that obvious and powerful trend. 
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:41 am

People in the know realize that there's a pretty good number of 34,000 or so a year coming that need a place to live, and that this is Canada, not other irrelevant places like Europe or America.
but how many of those can actually afford the price? and i bet not everyone single one of them planning to buy a place here. 
Vancouver or the surrounding cities aren't known as places with many suites available to rent.
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:45 am

While some people are blowing off steam, let's stay on topic. 

At this stage, it doesn't really matter how much exactly the price has fallen. What's important is the direction and momentum. After the market has hit bottom, it's fun to look back and ohhh and ahhh.

The changes in regulations in total represent a change in the fundamentals. It is the trigger for a U-turn. To maintain momentum, there has to be further shocks. Changes in short term interest rates will be modest. However, changes in long term rates may be troubling.

"Preparing for the Post-QE World

Over the past eight years, the major central banks have increased their balance sheets to $18 trillion from $6 trillion, predominantly through the purchase of their own government’s bonds. While the Fed has ended its QE program, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan continue theirs. But those too will eventually come to an end. What happens next will determine whether the world economy is set on a path to real growth or further stagnation.

"Unwinding" these positions -- even progressively as the acquired assets mature -- would almost certainly create deflation and a financial crash as it would lead to the withdrawal of massive amounts of liquidity from the financial system. Instead, we are likely to see what Adair Turner, the former chairman of the U.K.’s Financial Services Authority, recently called a state of “permanent monetization.”

... Political momentum is building for some kind of exit from QE, as has been evident from German criticism of the European Central Bank but also the U.K. prime minister’s speech to her party conference last week. “While monetary policy with super-low rates and quantitative easing have provided emergency medicine, we have to acknowledge some of the bad side effects. People with assets have got richer, while people without have not,” Theresa May said. “A change has got to come, and we are going to deliver it.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... t-qe-world

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