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westcoastfella
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Mon May 09, 2016 1:35 pm

What we are seeing is a one-time cash injection. It is unclear locals have figured this out. What are the chances the money will find its way out of BC as quick as it came in? 1.
Chances? Close to zero.

This isn't investment money that can be brought back offshore, this is money laundering.

These funds wont be repatriated - not for failing business back home, and not certainly not because China asks for it.
They may not be repatriated to China, but I think rofina's point is that the money may not stay in Vancouver residential real estate either. The world is a big place full of other opportunities to invest your freshly laundered money...
 
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jesse1
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Mon May 09, 2016 5:43 pm

This isn't investment money that can be brought back offshore, this is money laundering
Capital flows, it is not parked. Monies being reaped by sellers (many not Chinese nationals) are, in my view, unlikely to be meaningfully reinvested in BC; if the flow from China stops, I doubt BC will have much to show for it.

As for those who think Chinese capital is endless, well Japan is different because of its differences.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
thinktom
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Tue May 10, 2016 8:09 am

Yes, I know I missed the top with that disposition but trying to catch the market top exposes one to the dramatically increasing risk of being caught long on RE when the bubble finally and dramatically bursts.

Or do you subscribe to the quaint notion that because this this bubble has now been inflated so much further than anybody guessed, that is proof that it can never burst? :roll:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets, the clock is ticking. :D
Prices might go down but every single bear on these boards was crushed by the machine that has become Vancouver real estate. You can keep calling for your psuedo-bubble to pop, Geyser, but, face it, the bulls won this race. Hands down. Absolutely no debate about it.
 
Geyser
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Tue May 10, 2016 11:51 am

Yes, I know I missed the top with that disposition but trying to catch the market top exposes one to the dramatically increasing risk of being caught long on RE when the bubble finally and dramatically bursts.

Or do you subscribe to the quaint notion that because this this bubble has now been inflated so much further than anybody guessed, that is proof that it can never burst? :roll:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets, the clock is ticking. :D
Prices might go down but every single bear on these boards was crushed by the machine that has become Vancouver real estate. You can keep calling for your psuedo-bubble to pop, Geyser, but, face it, the bulls won this race. Hands down. Absolutely no debate about it.
Until a few years ago I was very bullish on Vancouver, but there comes a point when the bubble gets so big the eventual bursting appears to be getting much closer. Most rational observers accept the fact that the RE market moves in cycles, history has proven that point many times and in many places, including Vancouver. Trying to guess exactly when it will burst is a mug's game which was Taipan's gig, not mine.

I will happily admit that it has gone on much longer than I and many others expected, but if you study the history of bubbles, that's often the case. The fact that it has now inflated to extraordinary proportions does not mean it can't ever burst, it is far more likely to mean that the inevitable "pop" is getting closer and closer. Does that mean it will happen within the next 6 months or much later? I don't know, and I'm not stupid enough to try and put an exact date on it.

It amazes me that so few people seem to be aware of this type of bubble happening in Vancouver before. I've repeatedly mentioned the 1982 collapse when prices dropped between 40% and 50%, only to be greeted by claims that "it's different this time". Well okay, what about the 1911 bubble, when our local property prices dropped by as much as 90%? It was different that time too!
Vancouver 1911 bubble

Average SFH price was $887,000

By 1893, a lot in the same area sold for $1,100, and, by 1900, an adjoining lot went for roughly $4,250. Incredibly, by 1912, – at a time when wages were roughly 50 cents an hour, and a tailored suit cost less than $40 – a lot in the very same area was worth $725,000.

However, the prewar boom was not to last. Between 1913 and 1915, following the U.S. stock market collapse, and resultant worldwide depression, Vancouver’s real estate bubble burst for the first time; suddenly, commercial rents declined by 50%, and ordinary working people, no longer able to meet their obligations, defaulted on their loans. The city of South Vancouver went into receivership. The market was decimated. In fact, there is one recorded instance of a corner lot on Cambie and Broadway being listed for $90,000, and eventually selling for less than $8,000.

- See more at: http://thedependent.ca/featured/land-de ... iw39F.dpuf
Of course, that can't happen today, personal and government debt levels are so low, interest rates can never go back to historic norms, the population is happy with our current affordable price levels and the global economy and the Canadian economy are all in such great shape. Move along folks, nothing to worry about here. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Tue May 10, 2016 1:58 pm

Yes, I know I missed the top with that disposition but trying to catch the market top exposes one to the dramatically increasing risk of being caught long on RE when the bubble finally and dramatically bursts.

Or do you subscribe to the quaint notion that because this this bubble has now been inflated so much further than anybody guessed, that is proof that it can never burst? :roll:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets, the clock is ticking. :D
Prices might go down but every single bear on these boards was crushed by the machine that has become Vancouver real estate. You can keep calling for your psuedo-bubble to pop, Geyser, but, face it, the bulls won this race. Hands down. Absolutely no debate about it.
The best part of it the other one who is jealous of others success finally admitted that things are fine as stated in loans, finance costs, citizens well being, and reasonable prices, without things to be concerned about
 
Geyser
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Wed May 11, 2016 1:19 pm

Yes, I know I missed the top with that disposition but trying to catch the market top exposes one to the dramatically increasing risk of being caught long on RE when the bubble finally and dramatically bursts.

Or do you subscribe to the quaint notion that because this this bubble has now been inflated so much further than anybody guessed, that is proof that it can never burst? :roll:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets, the clock is ticking. :D
Prices might go down but every single bear on these boards was crushed by the machine that has become Vancouver real estate. You can keep calling for your psuedo-bubble to pop, Geyser, but, face it, the bulls won this race. Hands down. Absolutely no debate about it.
The best part of it the other one who is jealous of others success finally admitted that things are fine as stated in loans, finance costs, citizens well being, and reasonable prices, without things to be concerned about
You appear to have issues with cognition.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Wed May 11, 2016 3:21 pm

Yes, I know I missed the top with that disposition but trying to catch the market top exposes one to the dramatically increasing risk of being caught long on RE when the bubble finally and dramatically bursts.

Or do you subscribe to the quaint notion that because this this bubble has now been inflated so much further than anybody guessed, that is proof that it can never burst? :roll:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets, the clock is ticking. :D
Prices might go down but every single bear on these boards was crushed by the machine that has become Vancouver real estate. You can keep calling for your psuedo-bubble to pop, Geyser, but, face it, the bulls won this race. Hands down. Absolutely no debate about it.
On top of it all even that person openly turned around and agreed that things are doing well and people are enjoying themselves with a good Canadian market. Thats exactly what the words were lol
 
Geyser
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Wed May 11, 2016 3:41 pm

Yes, I know I missed the top with that disposition but trying to catch the market top exposes one to the dramatically increasing risk of being caught long on RE when the bubble finally and dramatically bursts.

Or do you subscribe to the quaint notion that because this this bubble has now been inflated so much further than anybody guessed, that is proof that it can never burst? :roll:

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets, the clock is ticking. :D
Prices might go down but every single bear on these boards was crushed by the machine that has become Vancouver real estate. You can keep calling for your psuedo-bubble to pop, Geyser, but, face it, the bulls won this race. Hands down. Absolutely no debate about it.
On top of it all even that person openly turned around and agreed that things are doing well and people are enjoying themselves with a good Canadian market. Thats exactly what the words were lol
And the folks who had fortunes invested in tulips were enjoying themselves before their bubble burst, as were the heavily leveraged homeowners in the USA until their bubble burst too. That's how bubbles work.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Wed May 11, 2016 4:04 pm

Geyser = Registered.
 
tdma800
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Wed May 11, 2016 4:35 pm

Geyser = Registered.
Well its probably doubletalk since he openly admitted that there's nothing wrong and people are happy and now is talking about gardening and the USA. Most people know we're talking about Canada. things are different here.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Wed May 11, 2016 8:00 pm

Geyser = Registered.
Well its probably doubletalk since he openly admitted that there's nothing wrong and people are happy and now is talking about gardening and the USA. Most people know we're talking about Canada. things are different here.
No, I mean Registered is hiding behind Geyser as a handle. That tulip reference is unmistakenly Registered
 
Austin
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Thu May 12, 2016 4:26 am

Whats even more interesting is all those bubble callers if they focused on the real culprit (foreign money) they might have been able to start a political movement to stop it. However, by saying it was all local money nobody tried to do anything.

Two of the worst actors, IMHO - VHB and Freako.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
whattodo
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Thu May 12, 2016 8:46 am

Good point Austin. Locals are bidding up prices too but foreign money is having the larger effect on prices for sure.

I now wonder is Vancouver housing too big to fail? House prices are up 300% in 15 years (my guess?). Even if prices dropped 50% houses would still be unaffordable! And if they did drop 50% forclosures would be as high as in the USA in 2009. Our economy would also be destroyed.

I know some of the bulls will say buy a condo. People with kids need 3 bedrooms. There are so few 3 bedroom condo/townhouses around. And the are not cheap either!
 
Geyser
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Thu May 12, 2016 12:23 pm

Geyser = Registered.
Geyser = Geezer = Geyser. No more, no less. Get over it.

Hey hypocrite, it seems it's time to repost this:
Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details
Post By Geyser » Tue May 12, 2015 6:27 pm

I love the irony in seeing your false accusations drawing attention to your own multiple handles. I was very aware of Eyesthebye, Waldo, Where's Waldo and Eyesthebye2 but I hadn't spotted Greenhorn. :lol:

It seems that HomelessinSD and Westcoastfella have busted you, just like several other posters busted you in the past. Its good to see you admit to two of your five known handles, that's progress. Now how about telling us how many more you have posted under???

Hilarious! :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: April Sales Remain @ Record Levels Across Metro Vancouve

Thu May 12, 2016 12:24 pm

Geyser = Registered.
Well its probably doubletalk since he openly admitted that there's nothing wrong and people are happy and now is talking about gardening and the USA. Most people know we're talking about Canada. things are different here.
Cognition again! :roll:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

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