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Barrie
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:16 pm

Did you know the Norwegians were the largest investors in New York City>

Barrie Vattoy
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reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:47 am

lol at the japan being the same as vancouver thing
I cant continue to dignify Geyser with replies...his views are inane and reeks of envy.

I hear it's not just Chinese buying now...lots of Russian too. Maybe thats why prices are surging even more dramatically, super rich vs super wealthy
Yep - everyone loves overpaying for assets. It's how they got rich. :lol:
 
tdma800
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:52 am

lol at the japan being the same as vancouver thing
I cant continue to dignify Geyser with replies...his views are inane and reeks of envy.

I hear it's not just Chinese buying now...lots of Russian too. Maybe thats why prices are surging even more dramatically, super rich vs super wealthy
lots of jealousy thats why
 
reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:03 pm

jealous of what?

Me thinks they were jealous of the lifestyle Canada provides.... nobody is jealous of China. What's their immigration of white folk dying to live in that hell hole? lol
 
tdma800
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:05 pm

many are jealous and want to bring everyone down to their level
 
reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:06 pm

many are jealous and want to bring everyone down to their level
agreed - due to their jealousy of Canada, we are now going down the level of China :D
 
Geyser
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:26 pm

lol at the japan being the same as vancouver thing
If you look at how and why Tokyo's home prices dropped by 90% you might be surprised at the many similarities with our current unsustainable situation in Vancouver.

And how about Vancouver? Would you agree that Vancouver has had big drops in home prices before? The biggest one I lived through saw home prices drop by between 40% and 50%.

But of course, "it's different this time". :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:52 pm

many are jealous and want to bring everyone down to their level
Of course, that must be it!

Many look longingly at the run down old crack shacks on the outer limits of Vancouver's less than desirable East Side. They dream of having some weird creep in the basement to help with carrying a huge mortgage on a seventy year old money pit.

Seeing the paper value increase substantially will obviously ease the pain but the fear of a massive correction is ever present and, for any thinking person, has never looked more likely. Although Vancouver has had huge and long lasting corrections in the past, naïve people remain in denial and tell us that "it's different this time".

Older posters will remember me as an extreme bull who used to engage in battles with über bear Freako and more recently, the less articulate über bear Taipan. Times changed, the market started to make less and less sense, the existence of a big bubble became more obvious and I slowly changed my tune. Time has passed and I can now smell the growing fear. :D

By the way, I still have skin in the game locally but I reduced my Vancouver exposure by almost half a few years ago when I first started feeling uncomfortable with the size of the bubble and, despite missing further increases, I'm glad I did because I can now sleep very well every night, even when the bubble does finally burst.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:01 pm

Canadian net migration 2011-2015 = 2.89%
Japanese net migration 2011-2015 = .30%

That's where the discussion ends
 
reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:04 pm

Canadian net migration 2011-2015 = 2.89%
Japanese net migration 2011-2015 = .30%

That's where the discussion ends
Yep - by that logic, let's buy in Germany - I hear their population grew by 1m in a few months alone. :lol:
 
Geyser
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:09 pm


I cant continue to dignify Geyser with replies...his views are inane and reeks of envy.
So you claim that a 2.9% increase in immigration produces the kind of home price inflation we've seen here since 2011?
That's really funny. :lol: how do you explain all the other years when immigration coincided with falling home prices. Please explain.

I suspected you would be unable to effectively counter my arguments. Just in case you want to reconsider your retreat, here is my post again. Just answering the underlined part would be a good start.
Do you think Tokyo's population shrank by 90% during their 90% home price collapse? And how come the antsy buyers didn't step in then? Do you think Vancouver's population was shrinking by between 40% and 50% when our home prices fell by those percentages in 1982? No antsy buyers rushing in at 15% discount then either. Human nature often makes people stand on the sidelines when prices are collapsing. It's all about two emotions, fear and greed. Currently I believe we are mostly witnessing rampant speculation and extreme greed, and its effects are quite impressive, but fear can be even more powerful.

Do you really believe that population and home prices always move in lockstep? If so, you must assume that the population of the USA was constantly shrinking between the years of 1890 and 1940 because the real (inflation adjusted) price of homes fell during that entire time. How do you explain all the various corrections which have routinely occurred in cities around the world? Were their populations always shrinking too?

Who sounds like the idiot now? :D

The key factor is not how many people arrive or leave, those are secondary influences, the biggest consideration by far is how much people are willing to pay. If you don't understand that you should ask yourself if you think our population increase has matched our insane home price increases over the last decade or so. Come on, you don't really believe that, or do you? :lol:

BTW, my suggested "worst case scenario" of a roll-back to 2002 prices was a lot less gloomy than the actual events which took the red hot Tokyo market by complete surprise. Personally I'd be surprised if they go below 2005 levels, but I learned a long time ago, never say never.

But don't worry, what happened in Tokyo can't happen here because "it's different here", and what happened here in 1982 can't ever happen here again because "it's different this time". :D
Come on ETB2, you've never been this shy before. You have explained to us that continued immigration will guarantee ever increasing home values, don't you think you need to explain why that hasn't stopped Vancouver and many other cities from experiencing major price collapse throughout history?

And no, saying "it's different this time" is not an adequate explanation of why this bubble can't burst.

We are all waiting. :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:29 pm

The comparison to Japan is idiotic. Even the comparison of Vancouver 2010 to now is useless. Heck, we added Russian buyers this year, so you can't even compare now to one year ago.

Add 1.175M new Canadians 2011-2015.
Most will want to live in Vancouver and Toronto.
Do you have to search any further for the cause of value increases in these 2 CMAs?
 
Geyser
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:58 pm

The comparison to Japan is idiotic. Even the comparison of Vancouver 2010 to now is useless. Heck, we added Russian buyers this year, so you can't even compare now to one year ago.

Add 1.175M new Canadians 2011-2015.
Most will want to live in Vancouver and Toronto.
Do you have to search any further for the cause of value increases in these 2 CMAs?
What is you source regarding a wave of Russian buyers?

I agree that Russia has a lot of wealthy people who were big buyers of European real estate and were even in New York and Miami until the Crimean crisis, but since then the Ruble has collapsed and they have mostly disappeared. BTW, the Chinese Yaun hasn't been doing well lately either.

If your'e putting your hopes on Russian buyers you might want to ask why Canada isn't even in the top 30 countries which were their top choices last year, although the USA did manage to make it into the 19th spot mostly because of New York and Miami. Has Vancouver (or even Canada) come out of nowhere and moved into the number one spot in the last few months? :lol:
Selling to Russians News:



Top 30 countries for Russian Buyers in 2015

The major Russian international real estate portal Prian has summarized the results of its visitors’ searches by countries of interest for 2015. Every month 350 000 online visitors from Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia and other Russian-speaking countries come to the portal to search for properties abroad in Russian, and over the year they look at more than 40 000 000 pages showcasing homes and apartments for sale in more than 50 countries.

Here are the champion countries of interest for the Russian buyers of international real estate:

Bronze: from 3 000 to 30 000 views a month

Traditionally Switzerland, Austria, Monaco and Great Britain keep the affluent Russian buyers interested.

Estonia has lost its call in comparison with a couple of years ago when it was fashionable in Russia to buy an apartment in Tallinn.

Dominican Republic stays strong with its charm for the Russian lovers of the Caribbean beaches.

Silver: from 30 000 to 100 000 views a month

Portugal climbs higher and closer to the first top 10 countries with confidence due mostly to the following three factors: its “Golden Visa” program has lowered the entry property price, the country’s economy has improved allowing investment opportunities and the tourist potential of the country has its appeal for the Russians that can be compared with Spain more and more.

Latvia, on the other hand, is losing its popularity after putting the entry property purchasing price for getting the residency rights higher than before.

Cyprus has moved a bit higher in the rating with its low real estate prices, thus more buyers can afford a compact apartment on the island; also the banking crisis is over, the economy is recovering; and the last but not the least - the “Golden Visa” program is still working.

Croatia seems to miss the opportunity it could get with the new law that allows a foreigner to buy properties as a physical person without starting a local company which keeps the costs and bureaucratic actions down. Probably the neighboring country of Montenegro has taken more Russian buyers with its even more attractive new law for the foreign real estate buyers?

Gold: from 100 000 to 1 000 000 views a month

Montenegro announced its new government program that would allow any foreign real estate buyer to obtain the residency in the country at the beginning of 2015, but in reality the program started working in November, so it has not affected the year results yet, but it is very promising for 2016.

Turkey, on the other hand, is expected to go down in popularity because of the conflict with Russia, but at the same time the Russians are not the only buyers over there, there are also active buyers from the Muslim Russian-speaking former Soviet countries, such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan, also the Ukrainians are more active than earlier, and these buyers can help to some extent to keep the country’s position up.

Greece deserves some special attention. During the summer when the world discussed the Greek economic problems, the Russian interest in the Greek homes for lowering prices started to grow and eventually Greece has climbed to being one of the top countries of interest for the Russian buyers.

Italy and Germany are on the top as always. Both real estate markets offer properties in various price ranges and of course, both countries have their solid reputation: Italy is fashion and food, Germany is law and order.

And now: what country was the winner of the rating in 2015? As usual Bulgaria is very popular: 7 500 000 views of the portal's visitors were eyeing the Bulgarian properties over the year, while 6 500 000 looked at the Spanish homes. But paying attention to details, Spain is probably the winner as it has been getting very quickly more and more viewers starting from the beginning of 2015 and by December Spain was having 25% more views than Bulgaria. Quite possible that in 2016 the leading country of interest will be Spain as it is getting ahead of Bulgaria for the first time since such ratings had been compiled.

Some countries that haven't got just a little bit to come to the top 30:

Egypt was doing quite well and going up till the deadly accident when the Russian plane went down, and then the country went down a lot in the eyes of the Russians.

Malta is a small, but very attractive country because its real estate prices are growing 4% to 6% a year, and its immigration program offers a passport (not just residency!). 56% of applicants are from the former Soviet Union countries by the way.

The top countries interesting for the Russian buyers of international real estate in 2015:

1. Bulgaria

2. Spain

3. Germany

4. Greece

5. Italy

6. Turkey

7. Montenegro

8. Czech Republic

9. U.S.A.

10. France

11. Finland

12. Cyprus

13. Latvia

14. Portugal

15. Slovenia

16. Thailand

17. Hungary

18. Croatia

19. U.K.

20. U.A.E.

21. Dominican Republic

22. Switzerland

23. Estonia

24. Austria

25. Israel

26. Monaco

27. Lithuania

28. Netherlands

29. Belgium

30. Belorussia
Sorry ETB, you are the one who is starting to sound idiotic. Do I smell panic?
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:26 am

Oh, oh! This doesn't sound good. Did you read the news in the USA Chinadaily.com?
San Francisco real estate feels chill of China's economic tailwinds
By Shannon Tiezzi
January 30, 2016

Although the slowdown in China's economy apparently has reached across the Pacific to San Francisco's residential real estate market, the city's astronomical housing prices also play a major role.

"We've seen a sharp drop over the last three years in search activity on Trulia, about 50 percent" by Chinese buyers, Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for the San Francisco-based real estate search engine, told China Daily.

"San Francisco's more pronounced than the drop we've seen on the national level," he said. "Nationally, it's down about 30 percent."

Chinese buyers make up between 6 and 10 percent of homebuyers in San Francisco, according to Trulia.

A median single-family house price in the San Francisco-San Mateo region, home to Silicon Valley tech titans and venture capitalists, is $1.1 million.
Fortunately that can't happen here because "Vancouver is different". :lol:

Maybe the Syrian refugees will pick up the slack!
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:08 am

Oh, oh! This doesn't sound good. Did you read the news in the USA Chinadaily.com?
San Francisco real estate feels chill of China's economic tailwinds
By Shannon Tiezzi
January 30, 2016

Although the slowdown in China's economy apparently has reached across the Pacific to San Francisco's residential real estate market, the city's astronomical housing prices also play a major role.

"We've seen a sharp drop over the last three years in search activity on Trulia, about 50 percent" by Chinese buyers, Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for the San Francisco-based real estate search engine, told China Daily.

"San Francisco's more pronounced than the drop we've seen on the national level," he said. "Nationally, it's down about 30 percent."

Chinese buyers make up between 6 and 10 percent of homebuyers in San Francisco, according to Trulia.

A median single-family house price in the San Francisco-San Mateo region, home to Silicon Valley tech titans and venture capitalists, is $1.1 million.
Fortunately that can't happen here because "Vancouver is different". :lol:

Maybe the Syrian refugees will pick up the slack!
not to worry geyser - ETB is pretty confident that immigration drives prices.... I am not sure why the REBGV isn't sponsoring more refugees to prop up the multi-million dollar valuations were currently see.
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