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Barrie
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:13 pm

Do you think the question is Home Ownership lost in the Lower Mainland? I've been in the business for 37 years and the market has a way of working itself out. Back it 1980 I had a lady approach me and said please help me my son will never own a home (prices were 180,000 and 18 1/2% interest. In 2007/2008 the world is collapsing prices are going to drop to zero (sorry dropped approximately 20% and came back). All I know is that home ownership is one of the best ways for saving for retirement and choosing a place to bring up your family.

I know many of you are hoping for the market to fall (maybe for selfish reasons .. don't own). Let's look down the road and see where we are.

From what I've seen I think it will work out.

Sent to you from a realtor that has seen a lot of different markets .

Regards
Barrie Vattoy
 
tdma800
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Tue Feb 16, 2016 1:47 pm

 
reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Tue Feb 16, 2016 2:53 pm

what goes up must come down - :lol:
 
tdma800
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Wed Feb 17, 2016 5:53 am

don't let the proverbial door hit you on the way out. Things are different here.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.3450819
 
reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Wed Feb 17, 2016 6:34 am

don't let the proverbial door hit you on the way out. Things are different here.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.3450819
Things are different here.... until they aren't :lol:

Lemmings will move their criminally derived money back to China like they always do. Hopefully the door doesn't hit them on the way out.
 
tdma800
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Wed Feb 17, 2016 1:22 pm

Do you think the question is Home Ownership lost in the Lower Mainland? I've been in the business for 37 years and the market has a way of working itself out. Back it 1980 I had a lady approach me and said please help me my son will never own a home (prices were 180,000 and 18 1/2% interest. In 2007/2008 the world is collapsing prices are going to drop to zero (sorry dropped approximately 20% and came back). All I know is that home ownership is one of the best ways for saving for retirement and choosing a place to bring up your family.

I know many of you are hoping for the market to fall (maybe for selfish reasons .. don't own). Let's look down the road and see where we are.

From what I've seen I think it will work out.

Sent to you from a realtor that has seen a lot of different markets .

Regards
Barrie Vattoy
One of the not so well known parts is that Vancouver is a very different market than most of Canada. Things are different here.
 
Barrie
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Wed Feb 17, 2016 10:40 pm

I am talking about working in the Lower Mainland area and seeing different market conditions in the area over the last 37 years.

Regards
B. Vattoy
 
JasonBugra
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Thu Feb 18, 2016 1:54 pm

what makes you think that the market will be corrected by 40-50%? I mean real estate is for most people their livelihood. It is for majority, their most protected asset, it would hurt the economy too much if they were to increase mortgage rates by triple. But then again, I wasn't here in 1982, so anything is truly possible.
Nope - whether prices go up or down, doesnt matter to me that much because even if I sell, I still need a place to live meaning I make a lateral move (actually less because the govt and realtor each take their slice).

I would prefer prices were in line with historical norms because its healthier. But what do I care if my house is worth 740 or 1.5? The house I want to buy to replace it most likely moved in lockstep.
Exactly right! That's how every fair minded owner of a single home should think.

Thanks to the local market, I have done quite nicely over the decades and have already taken a chunk off the table, but the current bloated situation is very unhealthy. I hate to see the inevitable social divisions which are already starting to form. All the envy, anger, frustration and finger pointing when young people cannot afford to live in the city where they grew up.

The crazy low interest rates and so called "paper profit" are almost certainly a time-limited illusion which can tempt naive people to overextend themselves with HELOCs and/or by buying homes which (when reality returns) they may not be able to afford and may be forced to panic sell into a collapsing market.

It won't have much direct effect on me if mortgage interest rates triple and Vancouver prices drop by between 40% and 50% again (like they did over a period of just a few months in 1982). The speculators can get burned and I won't lose any sleep but I do feel for the youngsters who have never experienced a full market cycle. When things return to their historical long term averages the pain will be widespread and intense, and that's not good for anybody. :|
 
Geyser
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:09 pm

I am talking about working in the Lower Mainland area and seeing different market conditions in the area over the last 37 years.

Regards
B. Vattoy
Over 37 years Barrie has seen big bull markets and quite a few corrections, including the really big one in 1982. He knows what a full market cycle can look like and he knows the market can't keep going up forever without occasional corrections. Perhaps his seemingly cautionary tone should be listened to.

I agree that over the long term "the market has a way of working itself out". I guess the question is whether rents and incomes are poised to skyrocket or have home prices overshot? I switched from bullish to bearish a few years ago when I started thinking a big correction was coming. Clearly I was wrong, or at least way too premature. The years went by and the market went higher and higher, that should not make the bulls feel more confident. If you accept that markets work in cycles it should make the bulls a lot more nervous.

I have no idea when a correction will hit but I remain confident that every year that passes without a bear market, it just increases the potential for either a very steep or a very long correction when it does finally hit. It's a bit like our earthquake situation, we count ourselves lucky that we haven't had a massive one for over 300 years but we need to remember that we now have over 300 years of pressure built up and one day it will release.
Last edited by Geyser on Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:10 pm

Its quite a different market in Vancouver
 
Geyser
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:13 pm

Its quite a different market in Vancouver
So are you suggesting that our long history of market cycles has permenantly ended?
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Thu Feb 18, 2016 7:41 pm

Over 37 years Barrie has seen big bull markets and quite a few corrections, including the really big one in 1982. He knows what a full market cycle can look like and he knows the market can't keep going up forever without occasional corrections. Perhaps his seemingly cautionary tone should be listened to.

I agree that over the long term "the market has a way of working itself out". I guess the question is whether rents and incomes are poised to skyrocket or have home prices overshot? I switched from bullish to bearish a few years ago when I started thinking a big correction was coming. Clearly I was wrong, or at least way too premature. The years went by and the market went higher and higher, that should not make the bulls feel more confident. If you accept that markets work in cycles it should make the bulls a lot more nervous.

I have no idea when a correction will hit but I remain confident that every year that passes without a bear market, it just increases the potential for either a very steep or a very long correction when it does finally hit. It's a bit like our earthquake situation, we count ourselves lucky that we haven't had a massive one for over 300 years but we need to remember that we now have over 300 years of pressure built up and one day it will release.
Does the threat of a correction even matter anymore? Prices have gone so far out of whack, what type of correction is required to bring them back to "normal"? 50%? 60%? More? In the same way I don't see prices continuing to rise, I don't see a 50+% correction for Vancouver in the cards either, no matter how this cycle plays out.

From what I can see, rents are going up (certainly going up around us in basement suites, and the one friend I have that continues to rent has complained loudly that his rent is 50% higher than it was 6 years ago). Incomes are also going up, at least in the high tech industry - 100K per year used to be a significant salary, now its what any senior engineer with 8-10 years experience can command in many companies around the area. Perhaps everything else is going to slowly catch up to prices, as opposed to the other way around.
 
rofina
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:29 pm

Over 37 years Barrie has seen big bull markets and quite a few corrections, including the really big one in 1982. He knows what a full market cycle can look like and he knows the market can't keep going up forever without occasional corrections. Perhaps his seemingly cautionary tone should be listened to.

I agree that over the long term "the market has a way of working itself out". I guess the question is whether rents and incomes are poised to skyrocket or have home prices overshot? I switched from bullish to bearish a few years ago when I started thinking a big correction was coming. Clearly I was wrong, or at least way too premature. The years went by and the market went higher and higher, that should not make the bulls feel more confident. If you accept that markets work in cycles it should make the bulls a lot more nervous.

I have no idea when a correction will hit but I remain confident that every year that passes without a bear market, it just increases the potential for either a very steep or a very long correction when it does finally hit. It's a bit like our earthquake situation, we count ourselves lucky that we haven't had a massive one for over 300 years but we need to remember that we now have over 300 years of pressure built up and one day it will release.
Does the threat of a correction even matter anymore? Prices have gone so far out of whack, what type of correction is required to bring them back to "normal"? 50%? 60%? More? In the same way I don't see prices continuing to rise, I don't see a 50+% correction for Vancouver in the cards either, no matter how this cycle plays out.

From what I can see, rents are going up (certainly going up around us in basement suites, and the one friend I have that continues to rent has complained loudly that his rent is 50% higher than it was 6 years ago). Incomes are also going up, at least in the high tech industry - 100K per year used to be a significant salary, now its what any senior engineer with 8-10 years experience can command in many companies around the area. Perhaps everything else is going to slowly catch up to prices, as opposed to the other way around.
Hard to believe, but seems to be the case.

Its wild to think that a 30% correction would do nothing to make things more affordable.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:44 am

So that's what it's come to now? Only an earthquake can stop this runaway train of a market?

This market does have a cycle...an ebb and a flow. It's just more flow and much less ebb...and the ebb in a flatter market, not a loss.

Been tellin' ya'll about this market for years now. Keep adding 45,000/yr new residents who need housing and there can only be one result.

I am talking about working in the Lower Mainland area and seeing different market conditions in the area over the last 37 years.

Regards
B. Vattoy
Over 37 years Barrie has seen big bull markets and quite a few corrections, including the really big one in 1982. He knows what a full market cycle can look like and he knows the market can't keep going up forever without occasional corrections. Perhaps his seemingly cautionary tone should be listened to.

I agree that over the long term "the market has a way of working itself out". I guess the question is whether rents and incomes are poised to skyrocket or have home prices overshot? I switched from bullish to bearish a few years ago when I started thinking a big correction was coming. Clearly I was wrong, or at least way too premature. The years went by and the market went higher and higher, that should not make the bulls feel more confident. If you accept that markets work in cycles it should make the bulls a lot more nervous.

I have no idea when a correction will hit but I remain confident that every year that passes without a bear market, it just increases the potential for either a very steep or a very long correction when it does finally hit. It's a bit like our earthquake situation, we count ourselves lucky that we haven't had a massive one for over 300 years but we need to remember that we now have over 300 years of pressure built up and one day it will release.
 
reallyreal
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Re: Competition keeps home sellers in the Driver Seat

Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:04 am

I love it when people are right but their reasoning is flawed... they fool themselves into thinking they are smart. When they aren't.

I've always said I would rather be lucky than smart. Works for ETB

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