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DAB
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:05 pm

Supply is too low. 1/2 of what 2014 year end. Assuming demand stays constant or increase, expect price increases of possibly another 15-20% for detached and 10-15% for condos in the lower mainland.
 
Geyser
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:54 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see one final gasp of panic buying before the new rules kick in and the interest rates start climbing. The Spring market will be interesting.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:56 pm

Supply is too low. 1/2 of what 2014 year end. Assuming demand stays constant or increase, expect price increases of possibly another 15-20% for detached and 10-15% for condos in the lower mainland.
more single family homes are lost each year too and dropping dollar make it cheaper to buy
 
jimtan
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:27 pm

The big uncertainty is the pace of increase in long term rates. The BoC can control short rates, but not long rates. In the States, long rates will rise as the Federal Reserve withdraws from quantitative easing. They have been buying long government debt and mortgages sold by Fanny Mae. How fast will their long rates rise, and can Canada lag behind?

"... On 18 September 2013, the Fed decided to hold off on scaling back its bond-buying program,[61] and later began tapering purchases the next year—February 2014.[62] Purchases were halted on 29 October 2014[63] after accumulating $4.5 trillion in assets.[64]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitat ... 2C_and_QE3
 
rofina
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Sun Jan 03, 2016 10:24 am

2016 is the year of reversal.

Money will begin to shift.

US enters a recession.

US equity markets begin correcting in earnest.

CAD starts to recover.

Commodities bottom.

Gold will see a dip into 3 digits and find a bottom.

US continues to repatriate its funds from abroad, it also begins to buy up commodities at rock bottom prices.

M&A activity in commodities sector starting in Q2, American Corps enter acquiring stage as bull ends in equities, and begins in Commodities.

2 more rate rises in US.

Slightly negative bias for 2016, but a year of opportunity to enter new long positions on the most hated assets.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:25 pm

CAD starts to recover.

Commodities bottom.

Gold will see a dip into 3 digits and find a bottom.
these are conflicting predcitions.
Can't have a strong CDN$ and weak gold/oil
Also, if commodities bottom it will mean gold is through the roof.
 
rofina
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:39 pm

CAD starts to recover.

Commodities bottom.

Gold will see a dip into 3 digits and find a bottom.
these are conflicting predcitions.
Can't have a strong CDN$ and weak gold/oil
Also, if commodities bottom it will mean gold is through the roof.
There is nothing conflicting about these predictions. You just re wrote that I posted.

Gold, CAD, and commodities are weak because USD has been on an unprecedented rally. I think this reverses or at least eases this year, sometime by the mid point or Q3.

There is nothing conflicting about these predictions.

CAD bottoms.
Oil bottoms.
Gold bottoms.

The worlds most valuable currency buys them at the highest possible margin, sparking the humble beginnings to a bull in commodities.
 
VanLord
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:06 pm

Already the strain is showing on the Eastside, as demonstrated by the extraordinary number of "mortgage helper" suites.
I don't think this is true at all Geyser...Eastside mortgage helper suites have been extraordinarily high for the last 10-20 years. Also I have negative vacancy in my eastside suites (yes I have had people leave on less than 30 days notice and I have had it rented within days), thus negative vacancy rates. I also have line ups of at least 20 people begging me for my suites when they come up for rent, so this is hardly a reason to be bearish...if anything this helps affordability and allows people to afford a house that might otherwise be out of reach.
 
Geyser
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:21 pm

Already the strain is showing on the Eastside, as demonstrated by the extraordinary number of "mortgage helper" suites.
I don't think this is true at all Geyser...Eastside mortgage helper suites have been extraordinarily high for the last 10-20 years. Also I have negative vacancy in my eastside suites (yes I have had people leave on less than 30 days notice and I have had it rented within days), thus negative vacancy rates. I also have line ups of at least 20 people begging me for my suites when they come up for rent, so this is hardly a reason to be bearish...if anything this helps affordability and allows people to afford a house that might otherwise be out of reach.
I understand your reasoning. My concern is focussed primarily on recent marginal buyers who are financially stretched and already depend on rental income in order to meet even their current "emergency low interest" mortgage rate. As interest rates and Property Taxes rise, those folks could be forced to sell into a falling market.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
VanLord
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:59 pm

I understand your reasoning. My concern is focussed primarily on recent marginal buyers who are financially stretched and already depend on rental income in order to meet even their current "emergency low interest" mortgage rate. As interest rates and Property Taxes rise, those folks could be forced to sell into a falling market.
Yea could be a problem, but I would say it would be a minor after affect, of a bigger correction. There is also some ability to increase rent to offset some of the rising costs, albeit not likely enough to cover increase taxes and interest.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:33 pm

CAD starts to recover.

Commodities bottom.

Gold will see a dip into 3 digits and find a bottom.
these are conflicting predcitions.
Can't have a strong CDN$ and weak gold/oil
Also, if commodities bottom it will mean gold is through the roof.
There is nothing conflicting about these predictions. You just re wrote that I posted.

Gold, CAD, and commodities are weak because USD has been on an unprecedented rally.

You said CAD recovers. That's opposite your next statement that CAD bottoms
 
Fabien
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:44 pm

The $CAD is weak because of commodities, oil, not the resurgent $USD.

$CAD will only recover if oil does. Collective OPEC action or greater middle-east conflict. So it's dependant on geopolitical events & decisions.

It's out of our hands I'm afraid.

We've become a two trick pony. Oil & Real Estate. It's gonna take us years to redefine, even if we started today.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:22 pm

CAD starts to recover.

Commodities bottom.

Gold will see a dip into 3 digits and find a bottom.
these are conflicting predcitions.
Can't have a strong CDN$ and weak gold/oil
Also, if commodities bottom it will mean gold is through the roof.

You said CAD recovers. That's opposite your next statement that CAD bottoms
Only if you read it as an ordered list. I believe Rofina was just throwing out a bunch of predictions in no particular order...

If commodities do find a bottom (and by extension, rise from it), then the CAD will rise along with it.
 
Austin
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:30 pm

Vancouver RE will continue and in fact accelerate it's decline in USD
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
tdma800
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:32 pm

That's fine since it becomes cheaper to buy for others

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