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rofina
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sat Dec 26, 2015 2:31 pm

Not to say the market doesn't make all of us look like idiots, but thats the same as saying the guy that bet Red 10 times in a row and won is a fortune telling genius.
Easy to hit red 10 straight times when that's the only colour on the board. Question is, who the heck is betting on black?
You can't possibly be this naive?

I suggest you look into other busts in Vancouver history and tell me what happens when Black hits - for whatever reason.

You point to immigration, foreign money, lack of land, etc, etc.

Ever hear of Hong Kong? Take a look what happened there in the 90's, and explain how a tiny city state with some of the highest wealth and density in the world can have RE fall as much.

Vancouver is not immune. It just might not work on a timescale that allows a most families to plan around.
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sat Dec 26, 2015 2:33 pm

Vancouver is much different than other places
 
westar99
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:53 am

Black did come up in the fall of 2008.

Prices actually went down pretty quickly.

However, all of those forces we have discussed reasserted themselves rather quickly and that short recession was actually an excellent buying opportunity in on ongoing bull market.

It was a very short window if I recall and prices already started climbing again within 6 months of the start of the decrease.

In fact, even if you bought in 2009 just before the decrease, you would have still made out extremely well.

I can't stand Bob Rennie & his real estate agent like but they unfortunately have been proven right about real estate in Vancouver.
 
rofina
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:05 am

What reassures me that Black will hit again, and that it matters as much as ever is the simple fact that even the foreign wealth is using CAD mortgages backed by foreign assets.

This market is no different than any RE market - dependent on credit conditions. Take away the liquidity and down she goes.

Wont have anything to do with local factors, but it will certainly affect the local market.

The risk issue for most locals is, even if you can afford a $1.2 - 1.5 million house, that asset moves down a meagre 10 points and you're under $100,000 to $150,000. Or the equivalent of probably a decade of savings for most.
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:07 am

Black did come up in the fall of 2008.

Prices actually went down pretty quickly.

However, all of those forces we have discussed reasserted themselves rather quickly and that short recession was actually an excellent buying opportunity in on ongoing bull market.

It was a very short window if I recall and prices already started climbing again within 6 months of the start of the decrease.

In fact, even if you bought in 2009 just before the decrease, you would have still made out extremely well.

I can't stand Bob Rennie & his real estate agent like but they unfortunately have been proven right about real estate in Vancouver.
Yes and things are very different here. Its all about the foreigners paying cash or giant down payments.
 
rofina
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:10 am

Black did come up in the fall of 2008.

Prices actually went down pretty quickly.

However, all of those forces we have discussed reasserted themselves rather quickly and that short recession was actually an excellent buying opportunity in on ongoing bull market.

It was a very short window if I recall and prices already started climbing again within 6 months of the start of the decrease.

In fact, even if you bought in 2009 just before the decrease, you would have still made out extremely well.

I can't stand Bob Rennie & his real estate agent like but they unfortunately have been proven right about real estate in Vancouver.
Yes and things are very different here. Its all about the foreigners paying cash or giant down payments.
Foreigners paying cash are probably a pretty small portion, and its not cash buyers that we need to worry about. Its the other 99% with loans of varying quality.

The large down payment folk are entirely depended on the bull market, those large down payments evaporate fast when markets aren't liquid or on an uptrend.
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:12 am

People outside of Canada paying with a wire transfer are the majority here
 
westar99
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:48 am

But back to the original post. What should OP do?

His purchase will likely be for the long term. He needs a place for his family. If his property goes down $100,000 in the short term, is it so fatal? He could probably wait it out and come out ahead despite "black" coming up.

Or maybe he should pare his risk by buying a less expensive rowhouse as opposed to a seven figure single family crackshack in East Van?

Thoughts?
 
jimtan
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 11:02 am

Yes and things are very different here. Its all about the foreigners paying cash or giant down payments.

Yes, I agree. Things are very different here. Not a tax haven like Monaco. No financial super-center like New York. No hi-tech cluster like Silicon Valley. So, what happens when foreigners take their money elsewhere?

China has created a lot of wealth quickly. From here on, it's high work. Improving productivity. Building a brand. Building infrastructure. Improving air quality. Creating a service culture. Building a trustworthy legal system.

"The Great China Supply-Side Revolution? Communists Change Tack"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... hange-tack

Wealth creation will slow down. Here's the interesting thing. Once China improves itself, living in China becomes more attractive. I would expect the flight out of China to slow down. Yes?
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 11:28 am

It isn't related to Monaco as Vancouver is a unique place
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 11:29 am

But back to the original post. What should OP do?

His purchase will likely be for the long term. He needs a place for his family. If his property goes down $100,000 in the short term, is it so fatal? He could probably wait it out and come out ahead despite "black" coming up.

Or maybe he should pare his risk by buying a less expensive rowhouse as opposed to a seven figure single family crackshack in East Van?

Thoughts?
Might as well take advantage of the low property taxes and buy
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 2:37 pm

"rofina"

Ever hear of Hong Kong? Take a look what happened there in the 90's, and explain how a tiny city state with some of the highest wealth and density in the world can have RE fall as much.
Unless Vancouver is being repatriated to China, I dont see how you can compare 90s conditions thete with Vancouver...ever!
This is just asinine.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 2:46 pm

"rofina"
What reassures me that Black will hit again...
Wrong.
The seller lessons from the last black hit will not be forgotten.
Sellers will hold and wait. Any dip in prices will be shallow and short. Best hope for you is about 5-6% discount.

BTW.
Anyone else notice there are only 250 sub 2 million detached available for east AND westside Vancouver?
Prices for this month going to come in 3-4% higher MOM.
 
whattodo
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:01 pm

Prices won't go down ... until they do down. Nobody knows when or why this will happen. Although we all think we do.

I keep thinking recession is best chance for prices to go down. Canadian have very high debt to income ratios. Also, most Canadians (the one's with high debt) have no savings and live paycheck to paycheck. If they lose their jobs they will have to sell their homes. It won't matter if they want to sell of if they think it's a bad long term move because prices will eventually recover. No job = not possible to pay the mortgage = must sell. This will increase inventory & decrease prices. Will this happen & when? Who knows.
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:03 pm

"rofina"
What reassures me that Black will hit again...
Wrong.
The seller lessons from the last black hit will not be forgotten.
Sellers will hold and wait. Any dip in prices will be shallow and short. Best hope for you is about 5-6% discount.

BTW.
Anyone else notice there are only 250 sub 2 million detached available for east AND westside Vancouver?
Prices for this month going to come in 3-4% higher MOM.
Also rental vacancies are low too so employment or otherwise people still need a place to live
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