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rofina
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Dec 27, 2015 11:13 pm

"rofina"
What reassures me that Black will hit again...
Wrong.
The seller lessons from the last black hit will not be forgotten.
Sellers will hold and wait. Any dip in prices will be shallow and short. Best hope for you is about 5-6% discount.

BTW.
Anyone else notice there are only 250 sub 2 million detached available for east AND westside Vancouver?
Prices for this month going to come in 3-4% higher MOM.
Its truly confounding how you just choose to ignore human nature and practical realities.

Why, then, do you suppose any one ever sells an asset if on a long enough timeline its sure to be of higher value? Ever consider why all and any market crashes in North American history have alway preceded new highs? Ever wonder why people plundered their investments at the 2009 lows? Ever wonder why someone sold you their house in 2009?

Ever wonder why there is liquidity in the market at all if all it ever does is go up?
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:16 am

"rofina"
What reassures me that Black will hit again...
Wrong.
The seller lessons from the last black hit will not be forgotten.
Sellers will hold and wait. Any dip in prices will be shallow and short. Best hope for you is about 5-6% discount.

BTW.
Anyone else notice there are only 250 sub 2 million detached available for east AND westside Vancouver?
Prices for this month going to come in 3-4% higher MOM.
Unnamed invidvuals have difficulty with the thing of vancouver being a special location lol
 
jimtan
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:07 am

Vancouver is a special place. Too bad that the residents aren't. That's the key. :wink:

BTW, even the Chinese are cooling off ...

"Diamond sales losing their sparkle

... According to Bain, the largest Chinese diamond jewelry retailers reported a 9 percent decline in sales during the first nine months of the year, as compared to the same time period in 2014. In addition to slowed GDP growth, the Chinese stock market crash in June caused a decline in consumer confidence, which also took a toll on the diamond market, Bain said..."

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/24/diamond- ... arkle.html
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:12 am

 
futureporscheowner4
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:25 pm

I think you make enough money, I would suggest buying a property in Surrey/Langley, find something that has 2 suites, and your mortgage will be taken care of.
Listen to some of the veterans here, bite the bullet, buy..
 
rofina
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:32 pm

I think you make enough money, I would suggest buying a property in Surrey/Langley, find something that has 2 suites, and your mortgage will be taken care of.
Listen to some of the veterans here, bite the bullet, buy..
And commute 1.5 hours one way to work in Van?

More to life than owning a house, particularly when it costs you more than just money.
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:35 pm

I think you make enough money, I would suggest buying a property in Surrey/Langley, find something that has 2 suites, and your mortgage will be taken care of.
Listen to some of the veterans here, bite the bullet, buy..
That's what life is about. Something for yourself instead of being someone else's serf. Thats why suites are called mortgage helpers
 
westar99
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:48 pm

Agree he should buy sooner rather than later (***not professional advice here - no liability if I am wrong!**** :)

I am not sure buying a house in Langley/Surrey is the best for him if he works in Vancouver/Richmond. He will need to factor in commute times and tolls.

While a home in Langley or Surrey is likely to be a fine investment, I am not sure a Langley or Surrey house will appreciate more than a Richmond townhouse. I think a Vancouver townhouse will appreciate more than both. The one exception would be acreage in Langley that is not in the ALR (or removable at least) or water view in White Rock/South Surrey but then you would be looking at the cost of a Vancouver house which would have the best appreciation of all.

What does everyone else think?
 
futureporscheowner4
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:18 pm

Agree he should buy sooner rather than later (***not professional advice here - no liability if I am wrong!**** :)

I am not sure buying a house in Langley/Surrey is the best for him if he works in Vancouver/Richmond. He will need to factor in commute times and tolls.

While a home in Langley or Surrey is likely to be a fine investment, I am not sure a Langley or Surrey house will appreciate more than a Richmond townhouse. I think a Vancouver townhouse will appreciate more than both. The one exception would be acreage in Langley that is not in the ALR (or removable at least) or water view in White Rock/South Surrey but then you would be looking at the cost of a Vancouver house which would have the best appreciation of all.

What does everyone else think?
Hi Westar,

I think if you take a look at it from this way, strata fees (300) over 10 years, 36,000.
I you look at what lots are going for in Surrey, ranchers that sold for 450 are now going upto 600k.

I can tell you the lot we purchased back in March is worth 800k.. Buy land, townhouses, condos, are all junk, you can make more of it.. But owning your own piece of land, no strata, freehold is something that retains/holds value.. You never know when a developer wants to buy your property, you never know when the city rezones your piece of property.

Land is the basis of all wealth.

And I agree with you specific types of property may go higher, but I disagree, I think anything in Surrey (Even good ol' bridgeview went up) 20% THIS YEAR! People complained about the high costs of housing, but bridgeview before this year, was a place you could buy a rancher on land, for 250k.. people literally flipped 80k properties in a matter of 2 months..
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:00 pm

Agree he should buy sooner rather than later (***not professional advice here - no liability if I am wrong!**** :)

I am not sure buying a house in Langley/Surrey is the best for him if he works in Vancouver/Richmond. He will need to factor in commute times and tolls.

While a home in Langley or Surrey is likely to be a fine investment, I am not sure a Langley or Surrey house will appreciate more than a Richmond townhouse. I think a Vancouver townhouse will appreciate more than both. The one exception would be acreage in Langley that is not in the ALR (or removable at least) or water view in White Rock/South Surrey but then you would be looking at the cost of a Vancouver house which would have the best appreciation of all.

What does everyone else think?
Hi Westar,

I think if you take a look at it from this way, strata fees (300) over 10 years, 36,000.
I you look at what lots are going for in Surrey, ranchers that sold for 450 are now going upto 600k.

I can tell you the lot we purchased back in March is worth 800k.. Buy land, townhouses, condos, are all junk, you can make more of it.. But owning your own piece of land, no strata, freehold is something that retains/holds value.. You never know when a developer wants to buy your property, you never know when the city rezones your piece of property.

Land is the basis of all wealth.

And I agree with you specific types of property may go higher, but I disagree, I think anything in Surrey (Even good ol' bridgeview went up) 20% THIS YEAR! People complained about the high costs of housing, but bridgeview before this year, was a place you could buy a rancher on land, for 250k.. people literally flipped 80k properties in a matter of 2 months..
Really? Land is the basis of ALL wealth?

You do realize that strata fees cover actual costs, right? Maintenance costs, reserve costs, operational costs, etc.

I thought every property in surrey was going to be over $1 million by now.... Isn't that what you said a few years ago?
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:31 am

dec 29 2015
http://www.news1130.com/2015/12/29/flig ... -province/
"VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – There will likely be more flights in and out of YVR to China in the new year after the signing of a new deal between Canada and that country in recent weeks."
 
futureporscheowner4
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:54 am

Homelessinsd bro

Its honestly getting to that point, when i see ranchers that were worth 300k back in 2009 being flipped for 625k, 650k.. Its getting to the point where if you talk with realtors, builders, theres a lot of wealth in vancouver, but a good portion is black money..


I used to think guys riding bmws working professional jobs were wealthy, then i realized last couple of years, its the guy driving around in a dodgeram, ford 350 with an excavatoon company rolling in the dough..
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Tue Dec 29, 2015 6:05 pm

So are you saying that it might be industry or development that produces wealth and it's not just land that is the basis for all wealth? If you believe "real estate" can be simply interchanged with "land", then your previous comment about townhouses and condos doesn't make much sense.
 
VanBullBear
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:26 am

Thank you for all your post and I appreciate all the constructive comments and will be putting them into consideration.

Just to add more information, If I purchase I will be keeping it for at least 5 to 7 years until I can upgrade. I would like to purchase in richmond because vancouver is out of reach. I need the space and good schools/neighborhood - richmond townhomes give all of that at a more "reasonable" price. It is easy to go east (to surrey langley through HWY91) and there is the Canada Line towards vancouver and downtown. Another huge plus is daycare is cheap in richmond for the same quality. I would say you can easily save 1000 to 1200 per month on daycare in compared to vancouver/downtown with two kids.
I am also willing to wait another 4 to 5 years - I don't think saving up and investing while renting is a bad idea, in fact I am leaning towards this currently.

futureporscheowner4 - Surrey is not an option. The neighborhoods are a few steps below BBY and richmond, I personally wouldn't feel safe for my family. Call it prejudice but it's a common stigma amongst vancouverites- it's just not a great neighborhood in my eyes. I see something trashy happening whenever I go for a drive there. I worked there for 5 years, and I agree there are some nice neighborhoods, but a bad area is just around the corner. As for langley, as Roffina kindly pointed out - I don't want to drive 2 to 3 hours a day to get in and out of work. If you put into account travel time in your salary, an 8 hour/day job becomes a 10 to 11 hour/day including travel. That's like a 25 to 38% decrease in the efficieny of how much money you make per hours travel+work. This is a huge hit in your quality of life for me and my family, not to mention that I will have to find a daycare that's willing to keep the kids overtime which will cost more. I do thank you for your suggestions however - the more known options the better.

Westar99 - You are correct that I am cautious about buying, these prices are no joke. Purchasing real-estate, in general, is the biggest purchase a person will make in their lifetime. I will take my time to analyze it from every angle because I want to make an informed and sound decision. A 10% decrease in prices on a 650k townhome can set me back 2 to 3 years of saving up just to break even, however to be fair, a 10% increase in prices is a setback as well if I decide to purchase after the increase. You mentioned that you think market will go 6 to 8% higher in the next year and another 5% after - please elaborate on these figures. Is it due to the CAD dropping more? Thanks.

My cautiousness comes from market volatility, mainly because in 2015 the pricese increased between 20 to 25%. tdma800 mentioned earlier that there is nothing wrong with a 20% gain, while I would normally agree with this if the market was closer to the average income, the fact is it was already out of reach by the majority of the population here in vancouver - pre 2015. Homes are being treated as stocks - I do believe there is a bit of a snowball effect happening that people believe that prices are always going to keep going up (because thats what they have been seeing all these years) therefore you should always buy because you will always make money. This in itself is flawed and an unstable model but quite human.

Looking back at the fundamentals - I believe we are in agreement about the forces thats driving the market. The question for me now is - are these forces here to stay for the next 4 to 5 years? I don't believe so - please convince me otherwise.

1. CAD will eventually climb back above 0.8 when oil recovers and as infrasturcture is created in the LNG sector. Oil and Gas WILL recover, maybe not as strong as it used to, but certainly not below 50. The world still runs on oil, its infrastructure is designed to run off oil. It's going to take a generation to build infrastructure that is independant of oil and that generation will not be ours. Oil and Gas prices cycle just as the same as the CAD, it's just a matter of when, I'm guessing within the next 3 to 4 years as oil and gas recover. It will probably get worse before it gets better since the looney seems to be on its way down.

2. Interest rates will eventually rise. This is something I'm not as sure of as to WHEN it will rise. Bank of Canada was suppose to rise interest rates with the US, but it did not happen because our economy is doing bad. I'm guessing this will happen when our economy is more stable - which ties in to the CAD and ultimately oil and gas prices.

3. Recession. Canada is not doing so hot right now - thanks whattodo for bringing this up. I do agree that this is currently the closest thing to bring the prices down.

4. Chinas economy will cool off. - The effects of this variable in our market is one I'm not so sure about. As chinas economy declines, they want to get their money out of the country put it into our real estate. But is this process reversible ? If chinas economy booms again and CAD raises - will the chinese that live here liquify their assets? This I really don't know, if someone can elaborate on this It would be greatly appreciated.

5. Tightening up of Canadian Laws. There are two elements here:

A - Foreign ownership. I think it's highly unlikely that something will get done to this because our government has no backbone. As a proud Canadian, It's degrading that we have no laws to protect the quality of life of our tax paying citizens from these crazy prices. Other countries have implemented laws that require citizenship to own land - but our politicians are spineless and is too scared to do anything so like I said, I'm not holding my breath.

B - Taxation loopholes and Dirty laundered money. This is more likely to happen and sooner rather than later. Astronaut families that own 3mil + houses that are registered as housewives and pay no taxes is completely unacceptable in our society. They get the full benefit of our healthcare, roads, parks, safe neighborhoods etc... and they pay no taxes. The money they do not pay comes from working and honest Canadians, I don't think the governement can dodge this and it's in their best interest to fix it. The laundered money needs to go as well... The effects of this is pale in comparison to regulating foreign ownership and with that said point # 5 will have minimal effect but something that needs to get done.

With my humble opinions above, it SEEMS that RE is to stay high the next couple of years (2 to 3 years) but who knows what will happen after - as you can read from my analysis above I think it will go down but nobody truly knows.

Please point out flaws or missing points in my reasoning because it's the basis of my strategy. Again, I'm new to this and I'm looking for well thought out sound advice. When I have more time, I will do a more numerical analysis of renting VS buying using the numbers that some of you have suggested.

Thanks again in advance.
 
tdma800
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Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:31 am

OMG a foreigner buys a house - so? more money for Canada is fun
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