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Austin
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:55 pm

Interest rates are going up, CAD currency will rise, and RE prices will drop.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
Austin
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:01 pm

Interest rates are going up, CAD currency will rise, and RE prices will drop.
Long form census will return showing issues with foreign RE investment which will be curbed.

Mark my words, RE prices will drop 10% in next 10 months.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:17 pm

We shall see.
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
rofina
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:47 pm

Are you implying Harper used lower rates as a way to kickstart the economy, thereby giving himself a shot at reelection?

What makes you think Justin will do any different? Why would he risk running the economy into the ground in his first months in office?

Or would he want to, so that 4 years from now were recovered and people have forgotten the pain?
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:19 pm

Well the market is just roaring now.... so let's see what happens.
Bank rate has just been set and was not raised.
I spoke with some realtor buddies who say that multiple offers are the norm. "Over asking" sale prices are the norm.
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
Austin
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:33 pm

It'll take about 10 months or so. Take the punch bowl away now and then in four years it's party time just in time for re-election.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:38 am

Well these prices are totally out of control.
Even Sellers that don't have a mortgage can't afford to upgrade unless they move to cheaper areas. There's really no such thing as upgrading in ones neighbourhood.
If you are forcasting a drop in real estate prices, will it be a drop far enough to make the affordability affordable to substancially more people? I dunno.
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:32 am

 
tapioca
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:30 am

since JT is planning to loosen up immigration isn't it more likely the opposite will happen?
 
Fabien
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:35 am

since JT is planning to loosen up immigration isn't it more likely the opposite will happen?
Immigration per se doesn't drive up prices any more here than anywhere else in Canada, ratio to ratio.

It's about liquidity. Not people. The amount or extent of the foreignness of the money, nothing else.

Btw Calgary is really struggling atm. Sales 30% plus down for a good few months now. Median and average prices starting to buckle - drop month on month. Will it reverse?
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:17 pm

since JT is planning to loosen up immigration isn't it more likely the opposite will happen?
Immigration per se doesn't drive up prices any more here than anywhere else in Canada, ratio to ratio.

It's about liquidity. Not people. The amount or extent of the foreignness of the money, nothing else.

Btw Calgary is really struggling atm. Sales 30% plus down for a good few months now. Median and average prices starting to buckle - drop month on month. Will it reverse?
crap. 70% immigrating settle in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal...yet those 3 cities represent only 35% of Canada's population.
Even if Vancouver didn't receive the wealthiest immigrants as we do, the shere volume of immigrants would drive prices up (assuming it's
an equal cross section of immigrants economic status)
 
Fabien
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:02 pm

since JT is planning to loosen up immigration isn't it more likely the opposite will happen?
Immigration per se doesn't drive up prices any more here than anywhere else in Canada, ratio to ratio.

It's about liquidity. Not people. The amount or extent of the foreignness of the money, nothing else.

Btw Calgary is really struggling atm. Sales 30% plus down for a good few months now. Median and average prices starting to buckle - drop month on month. Will it reverse?
crap. 70% immigrating settle in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal...yet those 3 cities represent only 35% of Canada's population.
Even if Vancouver didn't receive the wealthiest immigrants as we do, the shere volume of immigrants would drive prices up (assuming it's
an equal cross section of immigrants economic status)
???? Err that’s wot I said.

Immigration per se will drive up prices by virtue of there being more people in the market (all other factors being relatively equal). If the ratio is higher in Vancouver than Halifax then we should see more upward pressure. So what’s your point?

However a skilled immigrant. manual immigrant or TFW is no more likely to be able to afford SFH than your average Vancouverite.

By your own argument Montreal should have house prices approaching Vancouver, or at least have similar upward pressure for the last decade, because of their similarly high immigration intake. Why havn’t hey?

If you think that house prices can get to the level they are today because of lots of immigration across the board (regardless of class) then you’re stoopider than I thought.
 
tapioca
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:17 am

on the other hand, more immigrants means more pressure on housing which means higher rents for landlords like me :mrgreen:
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:46 am

"Fabien"

By your own argument Montreal should have house prices approaching Vancouver, or at least have similar upward pressure for the last decade, because of their similarly high immigration intake. Why havn’t hey?
agree with that. If Montreal was Chinese speaking instead of French prices would be higher.
Moreover, b/w 2006-2011 the % of Vancouver CMA population that immigrated was a staggering 40%. In Montreal it was only 22.6%.
That means more competition from locals for housing in Montreal than here. Clearly we're getting bombarded and locals cannot compete.
FYI, the yearly % of immigrants in Vancouver and Montreal is almost identical - if Federal Gov't is able to control immigration % to represent
same for each city that would ease the pressure.
All this data is available from census 2011. I believe the numbers would be even more dramatic if we look at 2011-present.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:48 pm

haters gonna hate

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/hom ... e26951419/ 4595 RUPERT ST., VANCOUVER
LISTING PRICE $975,000
SELLING PRICE $1,128,000 The Action: Listing agent Keith Roy had sold the house a year ago and his client didn’t make any renovations. He held a Thursday night showing for agents and two weekend open houses. He received 13 offers. “After a few rounds of negotiations it finally sold without any conditions,” Mr. Roy said. “There were over 300 people who attended, so they were crawling over each other.”
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