This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS


Moderator: admin

 
User avatar
Dragonslayer
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 112
Joined: Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:54 pm
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Thu Jul 09, 2015 8:27 am

Just me thinking Greece is a financial N Korea?
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:27 pm


I don't think so,,,he said million(s) - plural. I only have 1M
That's not quite accurate. You are assuming that if you sold your old house for around $1.5 million it could leave you with around one million clear profit after all selling costs. The theory may be accurate but you would still be wise to follow Jimmy's sage advice and (let me put it another way) not count your chickens before they hatch.

Currently most homeowners, particularly us old geezers, are sitting on vast paper profits, most of us much,much bigger than yours, so bragging about your "wealth" sounds a little bit silly when you are a recent member on the low end of the home equity club and your current assumed profit could easily disappear just as quickly or quicker than it appeared.

In these strange financial times nothing is a sure bet, not even an old rathole in East Vancouver.

BTW, I hate to burst your bubble but the truth is, a million dollars isn't a huge amount of money when so many Vancouver homeowners are theoretically sitting on a lot more than that. I'm old enough to remember when a million dollars really did represent wealth but that was a very long time ago.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
westcoastfella
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1583
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:11 am
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:41 pm

wow geezer, try not to kick a man when he's up... 1M may not be what it used to be, but its still something, and still a milestone that many people are proud to achieve when they do, paper profits or otherwise. You may have more or may not care about other peoples victories, but you don't need to be an ass about it.
 
User avatar
WhipMaster
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5129
Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:42 pm
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:04 am

Get ready people....your fawk market is gonna have problem soon. Better sell now while the selling is good. :lol:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1207
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sun Jul 12, 2015 5:38 pm

Get ready people....your fawk market is gonna have problem soon. Better sell now while the selling is good. :lol:

yup, remember what I said...you want to reduce your exposure by mid Sept 2015
 
rofina
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2009 6:39 pm
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sun Jul 12, 2015 7:27 pm

Get ready people....your fawk market is gonna have problem soon. Better sell now while the selling is good. :lol:

yup, remember what I said...you want to reduce your exposure by mid Sept 2015
I actually agree. But I am curious as to your reasoning.
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1207
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:05 pm

Get ready people....your fawk market is gonna have problem soon. Better sell now while the selling is good. :lol:

yup, remember what I said...you want to reduce your exposure by mid Sept 2015
I actually agree. But I am curious as to your reasoning.
volatility usually around October each year.
This year I have a hunch that something big might happen - market overheated for many many years.
 
westcoastfella
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1583
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:11 am
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:51 am


volatility usually around October each year.
This year I have a hunch that something big might happen - market overheated for many many years.
Something big is already happening - between Greece and China, as well as declining job reports here and in the US, and oil companies finally feeling the exposure to low oil prices, the headwinds are already here.

Volatility is normal, and in fact usually a good thing if followed by some stabilization - its just becomes a temporary sale and a good buying opportunity. I've made plenty of money over the last 3 years from periods of volatility. The question is, will this year's volatility lead to another stabilization (not a bad thing), or will it be the beginning of another large fall (a bad thing)? I don't have a crystal ball.

That being said, I've been generally selling since mid-June...
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1207
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:28 am

westcoast,
My guess is that this is the year of a major event in the markets.
I'll have the popcorn ready for early Sept..we'll see
 
User avatar
WhipMaster
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5129
Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:42 pm
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Mon Jul 13, 2015 1:37 pm

yup, get your snack-poos ready! :lol:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:45 pm

wow geezer, try not to kick a man when he's up... 1M may not be what it used to be, but its still something, and still a milestone that many people are proud to achieve when they do, paper profits or otherwise. You may have more or may not care about other peoples victories, but you don't need to be an ass about it.
I wouldn't be as critical if he was just a little bit more humble about how a series of unpredictable political decisions have (perhaps temporarily) increased his paper equity. Unfortunately he, like many rookies, seems to believe that his current stroke of luck is all due to his masterful financial insights. (Gag me with a spoon!)

He has also repeatedly dumped all over the other rookies who hadn't accumulated the same small deposit which helped him enter the housing market in the middle of a bull run. He mocks those who didn't get in at the same time as him but ignores how much further ahead he would have been if he had entered the market much earlier.

The property market has been kind to me but I do not put it down to my special financial genius, I put it down to some risk taking and a lot of good luck. This does not make me feel smarter than a renter, or anybody else currently locked out of the market. I feel badly about the socially corrosive effects of the current disparity and ETB's endless chest thumping, gloating and references to his imagined "wealth" only serves to make potential new buyers feel bad about their situation.

I do wonder if he is the sort of character who mocks disabled people or the homeless. By all means be happy about getting on the train as it was pulling out of the station, but is it really necessary to give the finger to those left on the platform?

There are a lot of us old geezers who got into the market in the 1970's and 1980's and managed to ride out the numerous price collapses, accumulate multiple properties and get them all paid off, but that would not justify me laughing at ETB for only having one old house and a huge mortgage. Wherever you are on the ladder, it's distasteful to dump on those below you. The only reason I make an exception for ETB is because he is constantly doing it to the few who are even lower on the ladder than him, it's cruel and nasty.

In the better areas of Vancouver even modest homes can currently be worth well in excess of $2 million and a very large percentage are owned by folks who paid off their mortgages many years ago. Should they all be gloating? I think not, I think they should feel fortunate but should also worry about how dysfunctional society can become when such big divisions occur.

Currently, Vancouver residents mostly fall into one of three broad categories:

(1) Debt-free home owners.

(2) Home owners with huge mortgages.

(3) Renters.

What happens if/when interest rates normalize? It's group number (2) who are at highest risk and the financial damage could be massive, but a reset of property prices appears to be needed if we are to avoid even worse long term social consequences. I have no great desire to see my own paper profits disappear (which is why I have partially cashed out) but losing the remaining paper profits might be better than living in a divided society.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1207
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Tue Jul 14, 2015 4:17 pm

"Geyser"

I do wonder if he is the sort of character who mocks disabled people or the homeless.
There are a lot of us old geezers who got into the market in the 1970's and 1980's and managed to ride out the numerous price collapses, accumulate multiple properties and get them all paid off,
I have one house for my family...but it sounds like you created a lot more homelessness during your day. Whereas my job on the other hand...
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:38 am

"Geyser"

I do wonder if he is the sort of character who mocks disabled people or the homeless.
There are a lot of us old geezers who got into the market in the 1970's and 1980's and managed to ride out the numerous price collapses, accumulate multiple properties and get them all paid off,
I have one house for my family...but it sounds like you created a lot more homelessness during your day. Whereas my job on the other hand...
That's a rather strange bit of logic!

Buying property does not normally reduce the amount of available housing, if an investor buys new or previously owner-occupied residential property, that property will usually be added to available rental stock, not left empty. Do you really believe that increasing the amount of rental stock is an anti-social activity which creates homelessness?

BTW, the last time I bought local RE was near the middle of the last decade. Since then I've been a seller who still has skin in the game, just a lot less than I used to.

I suggest that recent buyers (like you) have heavily contributed to the current affordability problem by borrowing huge amounts of cheap money and leveraging into overpriced RE, thus driving prices ever higher and creating today's bubble. I'm convinced that the major driving force behind our current bubble is a buying frenzy caused by a combination of fear and cheap money, and that begs the question - what happens when rates return to their historically normal levels? The answer is scary but history is replete with examples.

If you do the math properly, based on today's valuations, most rents do not come even close to covering total carrying costs. Most of today's rental property owners in Vancouver are subsidizing their tenants in the very risky hope that the bubble will get even bigger or that rents are poised to see massive increases. Given our weak economy and meagre wage increases, I find it unlikely that there is much more room for price increases or major rent increases, on the other hand it appears that the chance of a long overdue price collapse is getting stronger every day.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
HomelessinSD
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 600
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:12 pm
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:56 am

Given our weak economy and meagre wage increases, I find it unlikely that there is much more room for price increases or major rent increases
This is pretty much what I've thought for a long time. Rents are much like mortgages in so much as people tend to pick a place at the high end of what they can afford.

I haven't closely followed the Vancouver rents on Craigslist for some time now, but about a year ago I watched rental houses on the westside of Vancouver... almost all that were listed for rent over $4000 sat for week after week with the asking price being reduced with each updated listing until it dipped below $4000. Then suddenly the listing would disappear - assume that it rented.

To me that confirmed that rents were limited by affordability. I guess an argument could be made it was supply and demand, and that there was a higher demand in other parts of the City at that price point. But renting is still paying for the use of the housing... it's not like you are renting a house and leaving it empty because you think rents might jump up in the future and you want to lock in a fixed cost. At least I haven't heard of anyone doing that.

I'm sure as vacancies approach 0%, demand can force up pricing, but renters can be transient: if you can't afford to rent in Vancouver, you move to where your income pays for housing and commute to the job.
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1207
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am
Contact:

Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:54 pm

I hear that there are whole neighbhourhoods on the west side where the houses are
vacant with no rental tenant. This would definitely put a strain on rental stocks.
Perhaps you rented your investment property - so you likely didn't have the financial luxury
of leaving it vacant. Not so true for the much wealthier west side buyers now.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 1 guest