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Austin
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ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:24 pm

Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:13 pm

so.... does this mean Vancouver real estate will go even higher? :D
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
unicas
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:23 pm

so.... does this mean Vancouver real estate will go even higher? :D
it only means money will come to real estate, actually it is already happening. Just ask the big names Chinese realtors in Vancouver.
 
jimtan
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:27 am

Austin,

What's with the fear mongering? Where's the analytical framework and timeline?

IMO, you can't call a major event sooner than 2 years. So, there's no point doing the doom and gloom until you are sure that a critical point is down the road.
 
rMBA13
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:29 am

Their stock market is crashing because investors were cashing in on their 200% gain over 1 year to buy the "safe" Vancouver's real estate
 
jimtan
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:56 am

As has been said, foreign buying is a small part of the market. Could be pushing up prices in some areas. But, are they paying a million for a house in McDonalds parking lot? :mrgreen:

The real problem is the lack of supply. How high does prices have to go before enough supply comes online? When will interest rates return to normal? :!:
 
rMBA13
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:08 am

You can no longer create any supply for detached homes. And there are enough cash buyers to prevent yvr real estate collapse due to rising interest rates
 
unicas
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:31 pm

As has been said, foreign buying is a small part of the market. Could be pushing up prices in some areas. But, are they paying a million for a house in McDonalds parking lot? :mrgreen:

The real problem is the lack of supply. How high does prices have to go before enough supply comes online? When will interest rates return to normal? :!:
Define foreign buyer? a family immigrates to from China, buys a million and half dollars house, husband goes back to China while wife and kids stay. Are they mainland Chinese buyers or Canadian buyers? They are Canadians. In fact family like this ones have been almost single handed driving up Vancouver single house price. It is never the foreign buyers but the foreign money that is to blame. It is surprising how the main stream media have been debating the impact of foreign buyers. It is like going to a funeral without knowing who is dead. Jimmy I am surprised you buy into such official crap
 
jimtan
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:25 pm

Actually, there is a lot of speculation about the degree of foreign penetration in our RE market. Fact is that no one knows for certain because the data has not been collected. Suggest that you reconsider your bias.

Anecdotal evidence from the industry suggests that there is increased foreign interest in some markets. But, overall foreign buying is not a significant factor in most markets. To give some perspective, foreign buying in CoV is, IMHO, small compared to that in Manhattan.

That said, there is now evidence of foreign buying in the form of corporate entities (versus personal home buying). That is, foreign money is now accumulating portfolios of land banks and rental properties. That would be significant because of the amount of $$$ involved.

And, corporate investments would extend out of the traditional inner areas.

To understand Vancouver RE, you need to break the problem down into two components. There is a squeeze among residents for limited land. This affects the middle class who are being priced out of CoV and even Burnaby.

The other problem draws the headlines. Rich foreigners (mainly non-residents and not just Asians) are snapping up prime properties. This squeezes the upper middle class (doctors, lawyers and entrepreneurs).

City Hall is doing its best with the first problem. However, local residents are resisting densification because transit hasn't improved proportionately. Without transit improvements, densification will proceed slowly.

It is unlikely that the seniors governments can do much to tackle the second problem. In Australia, they have passed rules but enforcement is negligible.

What senior governments need to do is to fund mass transit projects so that we can use limited land more efficiently. That is, spread population growth into Marpole and the Southlands. Create new population corridors of duplexes/row houses/townhouses/large apartments.

A great deal needs to be done and the gormless debate in this forum accomplishes nothing. :!:
 
Austin
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Wed Jul 01, 2015 7:59 am

Well, I'm not going to debate the demographics thing because you are right, we don't have the data.

I will say that Mass Transit improvements will *definitely* help a lot, but alongside mass densification as well. I read some dumb thing recently where they don't want to densify along the skytrain corridor. That is really really dumb. Skytrain should be improved to handle mass densification along the stations.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Wed Jul 01, 2015 9:38 pm

WTF?
Transit has nothing to do with real estate prices...detached or otherwise.
Build it and they will come.
Check the project at Fraser at 25th ave which are wildly popular and sold out quickly. Guess what? no change to transit for that project.
I bet if you ask residents they'd tell you they like it that way. When you make it easier to travel to a neighbourhood, the property crime in that
locale skyrockets.
Same with Fraserview - some of the highest real estate prices in East Vancouver and it's very remote and hard to access for transit. I bet owner there
love that too.
Well, I'm not going to debate the demographics thing because you are right, we don't have the data.

I will say that Mass Transit improvements will *definitely* help a lot, but alongside mass densification as well. I read some dumb thing recently where they don't want to densify along the skytrain corridor. That is really really dumb. Skytrain should be improved to handle mass densification along the stations.
 
Austin
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Thu Jul 02, 2015 9:40 am

I think you just proved the point, Transit will help lower property values!
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
jimtan
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:44 pm

The big problem isn't an erratic third world stock market like China's. Manipulators will push it up, and fear will send it down. It's expected. The Chinese government will intervene.

“Losing $1 Billion Each Minute, China Blames the Wrong Group”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ks-tumbled


In the long run, the Chinese government needs to control market manipulation. Foreign investors will come in once there is confidence. Lots of new Chinese millionaires once that happens.

The real threat comes from a series of black swan events. For example, the current Greek drama.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... six-charts


Greece has only 2% of Eurozone's GDP. The economic consequences of a Greek disaster is limited. However, it is possible for the Greek blow back to threaten the stability of the Euro. How?

Typically, Greece has financed its lifestyle by issuing government debt to investors. However, the Greek debt work-out has been atypical. The Europeans have lend massive amounts of money to the Greek government and banks.

The EU has become Greece's sovereign creditor. The problem is that the Greek state is incompetent.

While other debtor states (Ireland, Portugal, Spain) have completed their programs, Greece has failed to achieve its targets. It is running a fiscal deficit again, when it should have a significant surplus.

The Greeks want more money AND a write-down of the existing debt principal. Threatening to do the unthinkable. Refuse to repay their sovereign creditors unless there is a big debt reduction.

Unfortunately, the EU doesn't need to do anything. Greece goes into bankruptcy and economic catastrophe unless it gets a lot more money.

Rich EU countries like Germany can afford to give Greece a deal on debt reduction and take a hair cut. German civilians are against it. More important, the poor EU nations (Spain, Portugal, Ireland, East Europeans) are adamantly against it. Since they have to bear part of the cost, since most the debt is now carried by the EU.

We face a Greek tragedy in that neither side can compromise. The current Greek government has burnt its bridges. However it ends, the EU's stability is now in question. What are the rules? Who still wants in?

A series of black swan events like this can cause a global financial catastrophe like 2008. I'm not saying that it gotta happen. Only that comedies of errors like the Greek fiasco can act together to upset the apple cart.

So, don't count your millions until you have cash in hand. The Vancouver bull trend is powerful, until the trend turns.
 
Geyser
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:24 am

Jimtan wrote:
So, don't count your millions until you have cash in hand. The Vancouver bull trend is powerful, until the trend turns.
I rarely agree with little Jimmy but this time I do. ETB2, I think he's talking to you.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: ruh roh: Chinese Stock Market crashing

Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:19 pm

Jimtan wrote:
So, don't count your millions until you have cash in hand. The Vancouver bull trend is powerful, until the trend turns.
I rarely agree with little Jimmy but this time I do. ETB2, I think he's talking to you.

I don't think so,,,he said million(s) - plural. I only have 1M

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