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PatrickGunville
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Best deals in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:20 am

A lot of money can be made in Vancouver in the short term, flipping properties, renovating and building, etc. However, in terms of holding for cash flow over the long term, these deals are hard to find. That being said, is a $100,000 condo in Abbotsford growing $10K per year really a more profitable investment that flipping a $1 million Vancouver house for $100K more in a matter of months?
Last edited by PatrickGunville on Sun Apr 17, 2016 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Geyser
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:43 am

Jeez Patrick, you've been telling us that the Canadian housing market is collapsing and the price drops will be massive but you want to sell condos in Abottsford because the losses might be smaller there? Really? What happened to the upward explosion of prices you were predicting for Surrey? Is that still on despite the global property price crash you have been warning about?

A few months ago you were telling us this:
"Buy a home, and watch equity explode upwards as Surrey continues its rapid development. Or create passive income by buying a rental property, and have the tenant pay your mortgage and provide you with abit of pocket money each month, while your equity builds behind the scenes."
But on Aug 20th you were saying this:
"Vancouver's housing market is on its last legs, but it is not to late to sell, and protect your equity until after the crash. Please share this with others!"

Aug 21st:
"Even if your house is paid off, its value is drawn from the value of the majority of houses, most of which have mortgages. In order to protect your wealth from the coming decline, it is recommended to sell, at enter back in at bargain prices in the very near future."

Aug 22nd
"It is a Federal Reserve driven global debt bubble, fueling all assets that derive their value from borrowed money! Real estate in all major economic centres, London, Manhattan, Australia, China, Vancouver. Around the world the disparity grows between rich and poor, as the wealthy elite class occupy the international housing market. Assets are so over-priced they cannot legitimately be defined as assets anymore, because their over valuation destroys any potential return on investment!"
So if the problems are global and if, as you assure us, Canada is about to mirror the "tremendous collapse in values" happening in the Netherlands, are you really suggesting that Surrey will still see prices explode upwards and Abottsford is a great buy at today's prices? If you do believe those statements it exposes a remarkable lack of understanding of market dynamics. Conversely, if you don't believe what you are saying, it exposes a very unfortunate moral issue. Which is it?

Previously on your website you told us this:
" I don’t buy into all the mainstream hype, or bubble-mania, if you will."
But now that you have clearly bought into "all the mainstream hype or bubble mania" I note that you have wisely removed that statement from your site.

I see that you have also removed your statement that other realtors will "tell you every lie in the book" and that "Most have no idea what the market is doing." It's good that you have removed those statements because they reflected very poorly on your sense of ethics.

On Aug 25th you demonstrated your acceptance of the bubble mania when you said this:
"I think we are definitely in the transitional period between a buyer's and seller's market, as seller's are still denying a bubble exists, and haven't yet shifted to the fear phase of the real estate cycle. But definitely, as history has repeated for thousands of years, when irrational human beings get scared, things go absolutely insane! I think it will only be a matter of time before fear gets introduced into the Vancouver market."
And on Aug 27th you added this:
"The Netherlands real estate market is in the midst of a tremendous collapse in values. This is primarily due to billions in mortgage lending, since the 90's, very little to no equity required down, low rates, and generous lending policies. This is almost an exact image of Canada, and particularly Vancouver. Not only do we have little down payment requirements, super low rates, and generous lending policies, but our prices are actually a whole lot higher than the Netherlands as well. The Netherlands was Berlin's last standing ally in sound budget policy, and now we see it too is collapsing. Canada too, is strongly viewed as a conservative country, with low debts, and a strong banking system. However, we can see through the propaganda, as it is clear countries with less debt and touted "strong" banking systems, are beginning to fail around the world."
And:
"The REBGV is always putting a positive spin, and reporting only the most positive looking statistics, while it appears the public may be waking up to Canada's looming debt and residential mortgage problems."
Sept 3rd you said this:
"It has already been proven that the China GDP growth drives Vancouver real estate prices. Therefore it is recommended that if you live in one of these areas, you sell your real estate at peak prices, and then simply buy back in after the market tanks and you have an abundance of cheap inventory to select from!"
Today:
"Obviously, the safest and surest strategy being selling and renting until prices collapse considerably."
And also today, apparently we should forget all your BS about Surrey prices "exploding upwards", Abbotsford is your hot investment tip this week. How about next week, will Spuzzum be your next hot tip?
"This is perhaps the most affordable, financially viable, real estate investment in the Vancouver area. Definitely not what the average person would expect, with all the hype over million dollar condos. Typically the rule is, the more expensive the property, the less of a return you should expect. Downtown Vancouver has been completely drowned in supply of over priced condos. There is no room left to grow in the market, only to shrink. Which makes Abbotsford a much more attractive locale. Especially considering the industry and future potential job growth and population growth. Prices may come down in the short term, but the $80K price tag leaves a lot of room for potential growth, unlike certain condos selling for $800K."
So if we are to believe you, Canadian home prices are about to "massively collapse" just like the Netherlands but by some magic Surrey prices will still "explode upwards" and although you concede that prices in Abbotsford "may come down in the short term" you are urging people to buy there at today's higher prices and presumably use you as their agent. Jeesh! Really? But today you also said "Obviously, the safest and surest strategy being selling and renting until prices collapse considerably."

And yesterday you had the audacity to call politicians "confidence men, or con-men" and "psychopaths".
(Note: I think you probably meant sociopaths, and they can't be con-men OR confidence men, the terms are interchangeable)

Patrick, give it up, you keep digging yourself into a deeper and deeper hole. I suggest you consider going back to one of your old jobs as a roofer at Roofix Services or as a sauté cook for Moxie's Grill, you were probably better suited to those roles. Your new role as a self-described (but apparently unqualified) "Market Analyst/Investor" isn't gaining any traction and if your recent posting antics are any indicator, you are so far off track you may be beyond redemption.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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semven
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 8:19 am

There may be some crossed wires, but it begs the question for what may result in Surrey in the face of a correction as far as rental properties/construction go...I imagine more stability in Townhomes in Surrey, Coquitlam, Burnaby with Condos (in these areas) virtually immune. I think the rental market in the areas with favorable commute times will support values, and good transit options will add to the stability even more. These attributes (and I am not talking about "walkability scores") are going to be more in vogue for 2 reasons...Market fear and aging population.
Abbottsford .....that dog dont hunt .
 
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 8:52 am

I can agree that the areas which went up the most could fall the most but I question advising people to buy into one particular area over another based on the apparent expectation that their losses might be smaller. Patrick is beating the extreme doomer drum and talking about a "massive collapse" in Vancouver prices. To suggest that Surrey or even distant Abottsford would be relatively unaffected by an apocalyptical Vancouver crash is nonsensical and I suspect he knows that.

If he really believes that the global debt problem is about to totally devastate Canadian (and particularly Vancouver's) property values, he cannot pretend that any nearby locations will only suffer small short-term drops. Suggesting that people should buy into a market which he thinks is about to fall sounds a bit unethical for somebody who claims that he is not "just" a realtor but is also a market analyst and investor.

Limiting himself to facilitating deals between well informed buyers and sellers is fair enough in any market but he is now offering investment advice and that bothers me, particulary when he appears to be totally unqualified - unless we consider a realtor's licence and a "get-rich-quick with real estate" course to be appropriate qualifications for an unaccomplished and relatively inexperienced young lad to start advising people on what to do with their life savings.

I do think he is here to troll for gullible clients and I have serious doubts about his ethics and the quality of advice he appears to be dispensing. That's just my view but I believe his own posts lend support to my fears.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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semven
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:32 am

I only mean to point out that I think he is half right, but half right for the wrong reasons.
With an aging population. Transportation, an appetite for downsizing, a need for medical care (how are your hips Geyser) and by transportation I mean quality, public transportation are going to be important metrics moving forward. Affordability may be an issue but lots of Boomers are moneyed-up from their RE rides in general.

I believe it was you who coined the term "Geezer Effect"
 
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:11 pm

Patrick, I'm so glad you started this topic because I've been wondering the same thing myself. I, in fact, looked at a couple of similar properties in Abbotsford for similar prices but decided against buying them for rental. I don't mean to rain on your parade but here was my analysis. I worked out the same numbers you did but then looked up the vacancy rate which I think is north of 5% in Abbotsford. Plus, the number of competing properties for rent told me that I couldn't get $800 month. $700 - $750 was more realistic so then with the vacancy rate, you probably are cash flow neutral or slightly negative cash flow. The big problem is that your strata fees are almost as much as the mortgage and they only seem to go higher especially with these building aging. With rent at $700-$800, those strata fees were too big of a chunk. I think too that so many of these rents in Abbotsford include utilities. Between this investment in Abbotsford and a single family home in Regina, SK which I could get for $300,000 - $330,000 renting out at $1800+utilities with a 0.6% vacancy rate, I went with the Regina property. That said, I still would like something a little closer to home in the Lower Mainland so I'm still trying to find something that would work.

As such, I'm wondering your thoughts about buying an Abbotsford SFH with suite for say $350,000 renting top and bottom out. Is that workable do you think? Does Abbotsford zoning allow for that if one part is not owner occupied? There also might be a better possibility of capital appreciation than the condo.
 
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:54 pm

I only mean to point out that I think he is half right, but half right for the wrong reasons.
With an aging population. Transportation, an appetite for downsizing, a need for medical care (how are your hips Geyser) and by transportation I mean quality, public transportation are going to be important metrics moving forward. Affordability may be an issue but lots of Boomers are moneyed-up from their RE rides in general.

I believe it was you who coined the term "Geezer Effect"
I'm a big believer in the "Geezer Effect", several of my cohort (and I) have already abandoned large single family homes in the burbs in favour of Downtown living, and several more are talking about doing it. I find the proximity to shopping, fine dining, the theatre, beaches, parks and hip surgery is priceless - it's all within easy staggering distance from my front door.

Another huge benefit is the ability to simply lock the door and go on frequent extended vacations in the fairly certain knowledge that a high security building and a good concierge means your stuff will probably still be there when you return. (I'm currently sending this from a hotel room on the far side of the planet, ain't technology wonderful!)

Some of my cohort have opted for retirement communities on the Island or in the Okanagan but none of them would even consider Surrey or any other outer suburb of Vancouver. It's always a case of move much further away or go right Downtown. It'll be interesting to see the "goat through the snake" impact of millions of boomers joining the Geezer Effect.

I wonder how many Surrey and other suburbanite boomers harbour the desire to cash out of their SFHs and copy my cohort by either going Downtown or going far. If the current price ratios remain in place they could sell one of the nicer SFHs in the outer burbs, buy a very nice Dowtown condo or Okanagan rancher and still have some cash left over to top up their savings. It can be a compelling scenario when you consider what many would consider to be a significantly improved lifestyle.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:18 pm

Patrick, I'm so glad you started this topic because I've been wondering the same thing myself. I, in fact, looked at a couple of similar properties in Abbotsford for similar prices but decided against buying them for rental. I don't mean to rain on your parade but here was my analysis. I worked out the same numbers you did but then looked up the vacancy rate which I think is north of 5% in Abbotsford. Plus, the number of competing properties for rent told me that I couldn't get $800 month. $700 - $750 was more realistic so then with the vacancy rate, you probably are cash flow neutral or slightly negative cash flow. The big problem is that your strata fees are almost as much as the mortgage and they only seem to go higher especially with these building aging. With rent at $700-$800, those strata fees were too big of a chunk. I think too that so many of these rents in Abbotsford include utilities. Between this investment in Abbotsford and a single family home in Regina, SK which I could get for $300,000 - $330,000 renting out at $1800+utilities with a 0.6% vacancy rate, I went with the Regina property. That said, I still would like something a little closer to home in the Lower Mainland so I'm still trying to find something that would work.

As such, I'm wondering your thoughts about buying an Abbotsford SFH with suite for say $350,000 renting top and bottom out. Is that workable do you think? Does Abbotsford zoning allow for that if one part is not owner occupied? There also might be a better possibility of capital appreciation than the condo.
Hi Westar99,

Earlier this week Patrick gave his advice on buying when he posted this:
"Obviously, the safest and surest strategy being selling and renting until prices collapse considerably."
Clearly, if he's urging selling he can hardly endorse buying.

He recently revised his belief that Canadian real estate prices were poised to "explode upward", this week he has bought into the "bubble mania" and is saying prices across Canada are about to be devastated by global economic events. If you choose to believe him you should have zero interest in buying anything in this country until after the "considerable collapse" which he claims is imminent. You've already figured out that at today's prices you'd need to subsidize your renters in Abottsford, his additional guess that your loss of equity might be smaller if you buy in Abottsford rather than Vancouver is all you need to know.

I suggest you listen to Patrick and not buy anything until after the real estate apocalypse which he says is about to begin.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:59 am


I'm a big believer in the "Geezer Effect", several of my cohort (and I) have already abandoned large single family homes in the burbs in favour of Downtown living, and several more are talking about doing it. I find the proximity to shopping, fine dining, the theatre, beaches, parks and hip surgery is priceless - it's all within easy staggering distance from my front door.

I wonder how many Surrey and other suburbanite boomers harbour the desire to cash out of their SFHs and copy my cohort by either going Downtown or going far.
Sounds like downtown condo may be a good investment in the future with a higher potential demand for the area than let's say Burnaby or Richmond condos.
 
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:19 am

I think Patrick lives in Surrey
 
Geyser
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:20 am


I'm a big believer in the "Geezer Effect", several of my cohort (and I) have already abandoned large single family homes in the burbs in favour of Downtown living, and several more are talking about doing it. I find the proximity to shopping, fine dining, the theatre, beaches, parks and hip surgery is priceless - it's all within easy staggering distance from my front door.

I wonder how many Surrey and other suburbanite boomers harbour the desire to cash out of their SFHs and copy my cohort by either going Downtown or going far.
Sounds like downtown condo may be a good investment in the future with a higher potential demand for the area than let's say Burnaby or Richmond condos.
I honestly don't know but I suspect that will probably be the case. The wild card is the current oversupply of condos Downtown, I bought my place as a home not as an investment but it's now worth multiples of what I paid for it, and that's after the past few years which have seen values drop a bit.

I think that there will be a fairly large movement of retiring boomers who will dump their lower mainland SFHs in favour of either Downtown condos or distant small town ranchers. How much they impact the market remains to be seen but they sure had a big impact when they first started entering the real estate market.

A similar large bulge effect was seen when they entered the school system, then university and then the job market. I'm expecting a similar "goat through the snake effect" when they eventually start flooding the hospitals and retirement homes and finally the funeral homes. I'm a little bit ahead of them so I probably won't be around to see if my predictions are accurate. :mrgreen:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:27 am

I think Patrick lives in Surrey
D'ya think so? :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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semven
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:40 am


I'm a big believer in the "Geezer Effect", several of my cohort (and I) have already abandoned large single family homes in the burbs in favour of Downtown living, and several more are talking about doing it. I find the proximity to shopping, fine dining, the theatre, beaches, parks and hip surgery is priceless - it's all within easy staggering distance from my front door.

I wonder how many Surrey and other suburbanite boomers harbour the desire to cash out of their SFHs and copy my cohort by either going Downtown or going far.
Sounds like downtown condo may be a good investment in the future with a higher potential demand for the area than let's say Burnaby or Richmond condos.
I honestly don't know but I suspect that will probably be the case. The wild card is the current oversupply of condos Downtown, I bought my place as a home not as an investment but it's now worth multiples of what I paid for it, and that's after the past few years which have seen values drop a bit.

I think that there will be a fairly large movement of retiring boomers who will dump their lower mainland SFHs in favour of either Downtown condos or distant small town ranchers. How much they impact the market remains to be seen but they sure had a big impact when they first started entering the real estate market.

A similar large bulge effect was seen when they entered the school system, then university and then the job market. I'm expecting a similar "goat through the snake effect" when they eventually start flooding the hospitals and retirement homes and finally the funeral homes. I'm a little bit ahead of them so I probably won't be around to see if my predictions are accurate. :mrgreen:
Women entering the workforce will mitigate your theory a bit Geyser as far as University and employment bulges go, as well as the introduction of the computers in relation to employment absorption.
The idea is sound with relation to downsized peoples target home and destination though...imo
 
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:09 am

and finally the funeral homes. I'm a little bit ahead of them so I probably won't be around to see if my predictions are accurate.
...and people intend to live longer today, so Geyser, don't say goodbye to us so soon. :lol:
 
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semven
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Re: Best deal in the lower mainland

Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:17 am

and finally the funeral homes. I'm a little bit ahead of them so I probably won't be around to see if my predictions are accurate.
...and people intend to live longer today, so Geyser, don't say goodbye to us so soon. :lol:
Yeah Geezer that statement belongs in the "Exit Strategies" thread. Pay attention FFS :x

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