This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS


Moderator: admin

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 10
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 5515
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm
Contact:

What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:39 pm

The professional econmists are saying atht 2013 will be flat presumably because supply and demand is in balance. No drama here.

What is your RE forecast for 2013? Even the guys with tin-foil hats are welcome to join in.

Here's 5 mortgage forecasts from Globe and Mail.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... le6198466/

Have a great new year!!!

:D
 
fishguy15
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1119
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 5:17 am
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:49 pm

Down 8% (Teranet HPI).

And yours???
Last edited by fishguy15 on Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
HAM
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:21 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:59 pm

The professional econmists are saying atht 2013 will be flat presumably because supply and demand is in balance. No drama here.
Cam and Tsur are your professionals? What a joke if you have been following these 2 clowns. It makes me think you could be one of these 2 clowns or work with them. The next time you go buy a Kia, they will tell you it's better than the Honda and you will listen and bow down to them. It proves now that you are gullible and likely the type of person that gets ripped off all through your life. So these clowns are saying its a great time to buy, why don't you max on the Heloc and buy some more units. Why not? Prices are going up so put you money where your mouth is and back yourself up.

Happy new year :twisted:
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
Austin
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3353
Joined: Thu May 28, 2009 1:41 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 6:48 pm

Roughly (average growth in oil, chinese stock market, and gold)/2 - 10%
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
Austin
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3353
Joined: Thu May 28, 2009 1:41 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:29 pm

Td predicting re avg prices for bc to bottom in 2013 and rise in 2014

http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economic ... recast.pdf
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 5515
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:24 pm

Thanks to Austin for the TD document. Seems that TD called it right for 2012.

For 2013/14, TD is calling flat, just like Muir etc.

This concurs with my estimate that there is a 95% probability that the Vancouver benchmark price will fluctuate within PLUS and minus 5% for the next two years. Unless, there's another buying wave from China and/or the American economy actually accelerates.

Interesting thing is that many provinces may see falls in 2014, but not Vancouver.
Attachments
TD 2012 forecast home prices.JPG
TD 2012 forecast home prices.JPG (170.49 KiB) Viewed 13040 times
 
HAM
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:21 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:39 am

So why would you believe a financial institution prediction and not other economist predictions? Some predictions from these sources that Jim believes are all from the people that pray that RE won't fall. Why? Why? Why? Jim, Vancouver avg price down how much? How is this flat?
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
fishguy15
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1119
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 5:17 am
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:10 pm

For 2013/14, TD is calling flat,
For BC... :roll:

Six months ago they were calling for a 15% drop over the next 2-3 years for Vancouver.
 
User avatar
jesse1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5097
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:51 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:40 pm

TD is looking at average pricing, not too concerned with Teranet. That's in part because they're lenders and make money on price*volume, not on same-sales. I'm with fish predicting MLS-HPI/Teranet, and by that measure, for Vancouver specifically, I'm pencilling in -6% YOY as measured in March 2014 Teranet HPI. For that to occur MOI will need to average about 10.

Don't know about BC. I don't follow outside of Vancouver CMA much, so cannot comment on it.

I'll throw in a wildcard regarding what Xi does in the coming year. Could go either way I suppose.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
Austin
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3353
Joined: Thu May 28, 2009 1:41 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:07 pm

Average prices should decline faster than benchmark.

The reason we listen to TD is because they were pretty right, at least in the direction, last year.

http://www.news1130.com/2011/12/22/td-r ... vancouver/
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – According to economists at the TD bank, “a larger-than-average price and sales correction looks to be in store” for the housing market in Vancouver. It forecasts a sales drop of 15% and a home-price decrease of 12% over the 2012-2013 period.”
If anyone has recent (last couple of months) predictions from TD for 2013/2014 Vancouver RE, I think it would be interesting.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
HAM
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:21 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:56 am

Globe and Mail Update
Thursday, January 3, 2013 6:50:30AM PST
Housing market, meet the stock market.

You two have a lot in common, though plenty of people believe you’re worlds apart. They think the housing market is a very smart place to invest, while stocks are treacherous. They’re half right. Stocks do have a nasty side, but so does residential real estate.

We may be seeing it emerge in the latest resale housing numbers. Sales across Canada fell 12 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November, and prices dipped almost 1 per cent. Vancouver sales were down 29 per cent, and prices fell 1.7 per cent; Toronto sales fell 16 per cent, while prices moved 1.6 per cent higher.

There’s no consensus on what’s ahead for real estate – forecasts for price declines of 10 to 25 per cent are floating around, and yet there’s also a view that low interest rates could pump some life back into housing as the spring buying season begins. But our mission here is not to say where the housing market is going. Rather, it’s to wise people up to the fact that house prices in Canada have fallen hard before, and taken years to rebound.

Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association show home prices have fallen six times on a calendar year basis over the past 30 years. In Calgary and Vancouver, they’ve fallen in nine years; in Toronto, five years. The S&P/TSX composite index, the benchmark for Canada’s stock market, has fallen 10 times since 1980 with dividends factored in.

No question, stocks are a rougher ride. The S&P/TSX composite index lost about one-third of its value in 2008, while the housing market’s worst fall on a national basis in the past 30 years was the 4.6 per cent decline in the mid 1990s. U.S. housing prices fell about 40 per cent over a period of a few years late last decade, but that’s not a likely outcome here because mortgage lending is done on a much sounder basis in Canada than it was in the United States in the prerecession period.

Canadian housing market slumps tend to be comparatively mild, but they can last for years. After reaching the $158,000 mark in 1994, national average prices didn’t hit that level again until 1999. In Toronto, prices peaked at $254,197 in 1989 and didn’t see that level again for more than 12 years.

None of this matters to people who own homes they’ll live in for many years to come and thus shouldn’t care much about the current value. You might feel differently if you’re a baby boomer who plans to sell the family home soon to help finance your retirement. The same applies if you bought recently and expect rising prices to carry you into a bigger home in a few years.

Today, only long-time home owners will remember periods when house prices fell. Toronto hasn’t seen a down year for housing since 1995. The national market has had just one down year since 1998, and it was a mere blip. After falling 0.7 per cent nationally in 2008, prices rose about 5 per cent the following year.

After many years of gains, the housing market of today is reminiscent of the stock market after the big runup of the 1990s. It’s obvious in retrospect that stocks were vulnerable to a decline then, notably technology stocks. But at the time, there was plenty of investing commentary explaining why the market deserved to be where it was.

The same thing is happening in the real estate market. In expensive cities like Toronto and Vancouver, it’s argued that houses are a good investment because factors like immigration and the allure of living in a sophisticated city will keep prices rising. But there’s a counterargument for all of these points.

Take immigration, for example. It’s certainly a support for housing, but some observers say it’s not enough to soak up all the houses being built these days. Urban charm can support high prices, but the situation in Vancouver and Toronto suggests there are limits.

Stocks have risen a bit more than 9 per cent annually since 1980 (including dividends), and houses about 5.6 per cent. But the rough periods along the way can deliver a psychological jolt if you’re not prepared for them. Lots of investors had too much exposure to stocks heading into the crashes of 2001-02 and 2008-09 because they believed past performance would be repeated.

These people set themselves back financially by over-emphasizing a risky asset – stocks. You can make the same mistake with housing.

Rob Carrick, Globe and Mail
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 5515
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:51 pm

Globe and Mail Update
Thursday, January 3, 2013 6:50:30AM PST
Housing market, meet the stock market...


Rob Carrick, Globe and Mail
What a sicko!

Perfers the casual views of a journalists over that of professional RE economists. That's cherry-picking for you!


:roll:
 
thinktom
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1695
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:51 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:59 pm

We had 6 sales in December. Pretty damn strong considering the naysayers, bears, etc....

The question is... are we going to see all those listings that got pulled off the market in the Fall, reappear in the spring. If we do, things will get 'interesting' as supply dominates even more than it already is. We currently have a Coal Harbour listing at $1.2M that has had 6-7 calls over the last week, all chinese agents, and we got an offer last night.

The market may be many things.... but it aint dead.
 
fishguy15
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1119
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 5:17 am
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:27 pm

We had 6 sales in December.
How did that compare to Dec 2011?
 
User avatar
jesse1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5097
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:51 pm
Contact:

Re: What is your RE forecast for 2013?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:46 pm

The market may be many things.... but it aint dead.
OK Tom. I'll stick to my "macro" world; 'cause as of right now things are not looking bullish. I've been surprised before so I'll let you interpret that FWIW.
There is no shame in overpaying
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 10

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 2 guests