Robert Shiller on Vancouver

[rentah]

FPOwner:
1. Shiller was right, US RE topped in 2008.
2. You only made 'lots of money' 2005-present in RE if you bought then and SOLD NOW. How many people do you know who've done that? a small handful at most. The vast majority will ride this up and down.

Thompson:
1. That 'group of investors' that you're impressed with only look good now because you're looking back from the very pinnacle of a historically uberabnormal peak. They're going to look pretty mundane, and then the object of pity, as this unwinds.

[Greenhorn]

No offense to Shiller, and the rest of his cronies, he stated that housing would tank in 2005!! He missed out 3 years of property appreciation, and when you think about it, the most appreciated occured around 2005-2007. If you had listened to him, you would have missed out on a lot of money.

Economists usually predict 10 recessions every 2 years, call it like it is, real estate takes balls, brass balls. You either have it or you don't. No I am not a pumper, I just feel bad for the poor schmo, who listened to all these peopel complain real estate was going to crash, and wants to buy in now.

Last but not least, judge not yet ye be judged...

...I just feel bad for the poor schmo, who listened to all these peopel complain real estate was going to crash, and wants to buy in now...

Never feel sorry for someone who made a profit.

What do you feel for the Cromers? They very quickly had $1 MM in equity. If they sold, they would have had $750,000 after paying capital gains taxes. Instead, it has all slipped away and they are in foreclosure. Bankruptcy is in the cards for them.

Why, because they listened to a shill who said the party could never end. They wanted more. Sooner than later, you run out of fools who are dumber than you, yet richer than you to take your property off of your hands.

Think if they had that $750,000? They could have had a clear title house for $200,000 that was probably worth $350,000 last year and $550,000 in the bank. They would have been on easy street. They could have been buying properties out of foreclosure.

[Greenhorn]

Great story.
I am just wondering if Cromer's rents can cover the costs, then what? Can they still be "bulls"? or I missed something? I should read it again.

Thomspon, did you read this part of the story?

With the economy slumping, some of the Cromers' tenants stopped paying rent, said Yvonne Cromer, 34. At its worst, the couple's mortgages were $16,000 a month more than they were receiving in rent, she said. Efforts to refinance the loans failed.

[freako]

No offense to Shiller, and the rest of his cronies, he stated that housing would tank in 2005!!

Huh? The market did tank in 2005.

Economists usually predict 10 recessions every 2 years, call it like it is,

First of all that is a joke not a fact, and a very very old one at that. Second, what the heck is your point?

FuturePorscheOwner
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 7:40 pm
Post subject: Suggestions you would give to a Newbie

Tips for Newbie
1. Stop talking smack about things you don't understand.
2. Stop extrapolating.
3. Realize that just maybe there is something to the bear argument.

[Thompson]

Thomspon, did you read this part of the story?

With the economy slumping, some of the Cromers' tenants stopped paying rent, said Yvonne Cromer, 34. At its worst, the couple's mortgages were $16,000 a month more than they were receiving in rent, she said. Efforts to refinance the loans failed.

Ya, good point. I am reading ... If everybody move to "tent city", like LA, that will certainly couse a problem for "a group of investors" I mentioned above. It must be the worst situation you can image. Mn..God didn't save American, but will God save Canada?

[canadian]

Thomspon, did you read this part of the story?

With the economy slumping, some of the Cromers' tenants stopped paying rent, said Yvonne Cromer, 34. At its worst, the couple's mortgages were $16,000 a month more than they were receiving in rent, she said. Efforts to refinance the loans failed.

Ya, good point. I am reading ... If everybody move to "tent city", like LA, that will certainly couse a problem for "a group of investors" I mentioned above. It must be the worst situation you can image. Mn..God didn't save American, but will God save Canada?

economy going spiritual from corporal. what next? jesus re-incarnation to save economy?

[Greenhorn]

Have you guys seen this graph? It is my favorite. Even as the real estate market was crashing in the U.S., the pundits and shills were in shameless denial. This graph superimposes the comments of the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, over top the average price graph.

Was this guy, David Lereah, really that stupid or just an out right liar?

[wealthyboomer]

Have you guys seen this graph? It is my favorite. Even as the real estate market was crashing in the U.S., the pundits and shills were in shameless denial. This graph superimposes the comments of the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, over top the average price graph.

Was this guy, David Lereah, really that stupid or just an out right liar?

The Man should be SHOT!

[Greenhorn]

Have you guys seen this graph? It is my favorite. Even as the real estate market was crashing in the U.S., the pundits and shills were in shameless denial. This graph superimposes the comments of the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, over top the average price graph.

Was this guy, David Lereah, really that stupid or just an out right liar?

The Man should be SHOT!

Who are our great local experts? Rennie, Pastrick, Cameron? Are they a lot better?

[Greenhorn]

This graph also quotes the new NAR economist, Lawrence Yun. Unbelieveable!!!!!

[silverman]

So scary...
Now I'm convinced the Lower Mainland real estate will correct by 80%... or is it 90%... maybe more, who knows... all these experts here can't ne wrong! After all Vancouver real estate is a carbon copy of the US real estate, isn't it?

On the bright side I'll just wait for the acre lot in West Van with the ocean view and the 3000 sq. ft. house to drop to $150K and snap it up.

[rentah]

silverman:
These posters are presenting some factual info, why not comment on the graphs?

What do they tell you about the reliability of statements from individuals who are supposed to be knowledgeable about housing but who actually have conflict of interest?
Can you see any parallels between these statements and those of local commentators?

Do you not see any potential whatsoever for Vancouver RE to follow the same pattern that almost ALL other RE markets are taking?

[jockey1]

So scary...
Now I'm convinced the Lower Mainland real estate will correct by 80%... or is it 90%... maybe more, who knows... all these experts here can't ne wrong! After all Vancouver real estate is a carbon copy of the US real estate, isn't it?

On the bright side I'll just wait for the acre lot in West Van with the ocean view and the 3000 sq. ft. house to drop to $150K and snap it up.

...according to your analogy above, a significant 80% drop would imply that the West Van acre lot with ocean view and 3000 sq. ft house you are going to snap up for $150K would cost $750K today - not bloody likely! That price is more in-line with what a 60 year old tear down in East Van is going for these days. So in this regard, an 80% drop in prices to $150K might actually bring that tpe of property closer in-line with replacement cost.

The home you are planning to "snap up" if there's an 80% drop is likely selling today for at least $10-15 mil - which means that even with a large 80% drop it would be going for the "bargain" basement price of $2-5 mil. after a significant correction. Happy shopping Silverman.

[freako]

This graph also quotes the new NAR economist, Lawrence Yun. Unbelieveable!!!!!

Want to know what is truly unbelievable?

1. This insidious hack was named by USAToday as one the top 10 economic forecasters. WTF? He has badly botched every forecase he has released. His bias is so blatant that he is serves more of a PR person than a bona fide forecaster.

2. This insidous hack suggested that case Case-Shiller may be biased because Shiller may profit personally from the success of his index. This is coming from a paid spinmeister for the National Association of Realtors. Talk about hypocrisy.

[Thompson]

What is the "Housing Bubble Bellwether Index"?

That "Housing Bubble Bellwether Index" is just a list Mr. Stack made up of stocks related to the housing industry. It is *not* an index of housing prices. ...

So, a bear's fun?