BC Immigration, Pop Growth PLUMMETS

[vanpro]

So much for the population boom from the mythical international immigration!!

BC population growth has stalled to near 0%!! As a result of NEGATIVE IMMIGRATION in Q4, 2010 (i.e. people fleeing Vancouver & rest of BC for other cities, provinces) !!!

Net migration fell 30% compared to Q4, 2009!!!

http://www.central1.com/publications/ec ... 2%20BC.pdf

Quotes:

"Net international migration to B.C. was negative with

an estimated net outflow of 727 individuals observed

in the fourth quarter. This was the first negative

quarterly figure since at least 1971. While emigration

figures remained stable on a seasonally-adjusted

basis, and immigration fell by a relatively sharp 13.4%

from the third quarter, net declines were driven by a

net outflow of non-permanent residents.

[gse36]

Interesting. I can see that. 3 friends of mine moved out of Country this year. Citing high home prices. Young, no kids yet. 2 are married.

They're smart people with no debt, with aspirations of financial freedom. Each had downpayment of $300k+. Pity to lose them. Well, 2 of them will keep their places here so at least if prices continue to go up, they won't ose out.

[tdma800]

sure Toronto, Ottawa, and Calgary all have more employment available than Vancouver. Everyone knows that. But would you want to LIVE there?

[jesse1]

As the report notes, most of the exodus has been due to temporary workers, not least because of changes to certain worker classifications at the federal level. Underneath those numbers there is still healthy PR immigration. Oh and if you want a reason why rents aren't going up, look no further. Good thing rates are low.

[eyesthebye]

So much for the population boom from the mythical international immigration!!

BC population growth has stalled to near 0%!! As a result of NEGATIVE IMMIGRATION in Q4, 2010 (i.e. people fleeing Vancouver & rest of BC for other cities, provinces) !!!

Net migration fell 30% compared to Q4, 2009!!!

I guess that explains the price increases in property in Vancouver this year...hey, wait a sec

[eyesthebye]

Interesting. I can see that. 3 friends of mine moved out of Country this year. Citing high home prices. Young, no kids yet. 2 are married.

They're smart people with no debt, with aspirations of financial freedom. Each had downpayment of $300k+. Pity to lose them. Well, 2 of them will keep their places here so at least if prices continue to go up, they won't ose out.

I suppose bearish on Vancouver doesn't always mean bearish on Vancouver real estate

[gse36]

sure Toronto, Ottawa, and Calgary all have more employment available than Vancouver. Everyone knows that. But would you want to LIVE there?

actually i know 2 people in their 40's who just retired in Toronto ($1.2M equity in vancouver home, paid it off, bought $600k in Toronto, plus have investment savings (and later cash out RRSP savings). actively invested.

they chose retirement in toronto as opposed to working and living in Vancouver. sure they could buy a condo in Vancouver, but they wanted a house.

sure it may not be as beautiful, but theres something to be said about having 16 hours a day to yourself and spouse (assuming 8 hrs sleep) = 112 hrs a week.

vs what they had before. 9 hour work + 1 hr commute each way (*2) + 8 hr sleep = 5 hr left to themselves 5 days w eek. = 25 hours a week + 32 on weekend = 57 hr a week. + all the anxiety and stres from their jobs + occasional overtime, etc.

they have 2x as much free time as before. they are in excellent physical shape, and go travelling a lot (yes, and back to Vancouver too), volunteer a lot. basically doing all the things they enjoy. contribute back to society, and help those around them. they felt this was more meaningful than paying the bank interest and paying for a modest house.

given theres 20 years to normal retirement age, and they get 2x more time to do what they want than others, then they essentially are having 20 years more enjoyment than if they lived in Vancouver. more importantly, it is while they are still relatively young.

[gse36]

Interesting. I can see that. 3 friends of mine moved out of Country this year. Citing high home prices. Young, no kids yet. 2 are married.

They're smart people with no debt, with aspirations of financial freedom. Each had downpayment of $300k+. Pity to lose them. Well, 2 of them will keep their places here so at least if prices continue to go up, they won't ose out.

I suppose bearish on Vancouver doesn't always mean bearish on Vancouver real estate

they aren't bearish on Vancouver. they are just in a position where they want a family, but cannot afford a house and the lifestyle they want (while maintaining target for financial freedom/early retirement). so they move. i don't think they really care where Vancouver prices go. it is just a matter of where it is NOW, doesn't make sense to them.

[westcoastfella]

sure Toronto, Ottawa, and Calgary all have more employment available than Vancouver. Everyone knows that. But would you want to LIVE there?

about 1/4 of the population of Canada "LIVE there". Lots of ex-Vancouverites coming to Toronto, none of them seem to mind living here either.

They're smart people with no debt, with aspirations of financial freedom. Each had downpayment of $300k+. Pity to lose them. Well, 2 of them will keep their places here so at least if prices continue to go up, they won't ose out.

I still continue to see a large number of job-seekers from the LM in Toronto - my company and others that I know. The main reason for moving? Quality of life. I guess all those mountains and ocean and mild winters aren't all that great when you have to work like a dog just to barely afford them.

The exodus of smart people with no debt will probably continue - to other parts of Canada or overseas.

[tdma800]

not that fun living in a -20c winter for several months of the year

[rofina]

not that fun living in a -20c winter for several months of the year

Apparently people are finding it fun enough, more fun than paying whatever it is a Vancouver SFH demands this month.

[tdma800]

not that fun when its so far away from vancouver

[WorldInvestor]

If someone has 1.2M in house equity in Vancouver proper or close by (i.e. Richmond or Burnaby), there's no need to take the drastic step and move to Toronto to retire. Just move to Surrey, Delta, Langley, Abootsford, Maple Ridge, etc. and you can get a pretty good house for 0.6M.

[Taipan]

Noooooo! Where is ETB who always spruiked that people would pay anything to live in a crack shack in a city that has a problem with rain and mould.

Now the anecdote is that people are leaving Vancouver because it doesnt make pragmatic sense to stay.

Isnt fundamentals a wonderful thing

[jimtan]

not that fun living in a -20c winter for several months of the year

They'll be back in a few years. Then, they'll have to move to Okanagan.