RE Anecdotes - Post them here!

[RiskArb]

RET is at it's finest (and most useful) when people post about real RE experiences and observations from people around them.

........so I thought we could have a thread where we collate all these data points, however scattered and seemingly isolated they appear.

I'll kick us off:

Spent the past week in LA and SF and in the more moneyed parts in between (Pebble Beach, Carmel, Santa Barbara, Malibu). My observations:

- Vancouver high-end property prices on par or even more expensive than these places (Vancouver's alot nicer too minus the dreary winters!)
- I found Santa Barbara cheap compared to Vancouver in all respects (food, property etc)
- I see WAY more nice + exotic cars in Vancouver than in all of these moneyed places including Malibu - v surprised!
- California had a much higher Ferrari-to-Lamborghini ratio than Vancouver (and older drivers) suggesting that they have a larger old-money component
- In all my conversations in CA, the topics of "job market" and "recession" came up at least once a day (unsolicited). In my week in Vancouver, it didn't come up once.

[Johnny Horton]

the chilcotin market is very quiet. the chilcotin area is west of williams lake on hwy 20. everything is for sale, even if it's not listed. the prices are quite inflated. there are very few jobs up there with the mills closing down. i think the big employer other than the hospitality industry, is Interior Roads, ie Highways. there are no hospitals and the schools are under occupied. i think the area is dying for now. good fishing though.

people up there speak of "income streams", or in other words, doing whatever it takes to make ends meet. bed and breakfasts, guiding, recycling usable goods, having 2 or 3 jobs etc, is the norm.

everybody bailing so places like this will probably have to go for 25% less.

http://www.bchomesforsale.com/view/nimp ... efault.htm

[metalhead]

chilcotin market is very quiet
the prices are quite inflated.
everybody bailing so places like this will probably have to go for 25% less.

...and yet you played games in that thread about the 160 acres I talked about in this area.
Asking over and over are the buyers or non-buyers smart etc. etc.
Even more evidence, if any was needed, that anything you say should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

[Johnny Horton]

...and yet you played games in that thread about the 160 acres I talked about in this area.
Asking over and over are the buyers or non-buyers smart etc. etc.
Even more evidence, if any was needed, that anything you say should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

I'm just trying to get you to use that big piece of meat that sits on your shoulders
for something other than head banging.

[Beaker]

everybody bailing so places like this will probably have to go for 25% less.

http://www.bchomesforsale.com/view/nimp ... efault.htm

I've always wanted a place in the Chilcotin's like this one, but I can't live there full time so it's hard to justify, especially as it is a 12+ hour drive from the lower mainland. Seems like it would be a full time job maintaining the acerage. The other thing that concerns me about buying something so remote is if energy (oil, fuel etc) becomes more expensive over the years it could drive down demand for these places as it will cost so much just to pay the fuel bill to get up there. Must be lonley and cold in the winter also.

[gse36]

Was speaking to my realtor. Sometime this month or next there is an event being put on for realtors. Its part of their regular discussions/presentations. But one of the ones is about "surviving in struggling times" or something.

[Beaker]

Had lunch with 3 business associates today where the topic of real estate came up. Two of them were from the lower mainland and one recently returned to Canada from Florida and now living in Toronto. The two from the lower mainland beleived that BC "is different" and because of our diversity of economy and limited land RE was not going to go down and we had survived the global recession. The guy who just came back from Florida saw things differently and said he heard all the same talk in the USA back in 2005. The guys from BC insisted that the only way RE would fall is if we lost major jobs here, and that wasn't going to happen due to Gov't stimulis and diversity of economy (we are all in transportation infrastructure business). I gave my 2 cent and reminded them that the RE losses came first in the USA, then the job losses increased and the economy tanked after that.

I think that this is the missing part of the analysis with many of the "RE only goes up" crowd. They don't realize how many jobs and resources have been misallocated to the RE sector during the bubble inflation. When all that RE apparatus starts to fall apart upon the bubble burst it is devistating to the economy.

Anecdotally, 99 out of 100 people I speak to still think Vancouver RE is a good investment. As soon as the last 1 out of 100 capitulates, I think we will see a long, slow decline that will last 5 to 10 years.

[jimtan]

the chilcotin market is very quiet...
everybody bailing so places like this will probably have to go for 25% less.

Be careful about even a guesstimate of where the bottom might be. In a powerful downtrend, you just don't know. Same as for a bull trend in other markets.

Here's a recent anecdote. My neighbour (a renter) is buying a place in Steveston. Said that it was not the same as Yaletown. Told her that Steveston is very nice. Shows that there are realists still buying.

[registered]

Told her that Steveston is very nice. Shows that there are realists still buying.

Better check in with bullmate DAB, he says cities, not burbs, are the realistic choice. Some like LTB assert only small areas of a very limited number of cities (roughly one, maybe less) are safe.

[rofina]

Most of my childhood neighbourhood has sold off to new families. Houses seem to be moving fast, Upper Lonsdale area of North Van. Houses priced in the mid 800's are moving quick, of the 3 new neighbours that my parents met, all are move up buyers having purchased their first properties in early 2000's.

[fishguy15]

Most of my childhood neighbourhood has sold off to new families. Houses seem to be moving fast, Upper Lonsdale area of North Van. Houses priced in the mid 800's are moving quick, of the 3 new neighbours that my parents met, all are move up buyers having purchased their first properties in early 2000's.

You must be from my 'hood. One new neighbour of mine who just moved in after a month of possession is still waiting to sell their townhouse. It's the houses in the $2m range (in the same neighbourhood) that are not selling at all.

[RiskArb]

Realtor from Singapore woke me up this morning to present an offer from a mainland Chinese buyer for my condo.

If I sell, it would be the highest price so far obtained in the development. And mainland money is new to this part of town (East Coast SIngapore) as they've typically only played in the ultra high-end (Orchard Road and Marina Bay).

At the same time, I read in the Globe and Mail ROB an article about Vancouver real-estate and how the majority of purchases on the westside are from mainlanders

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le1808967/

Article is chock-full of anecdotes..... how accurate they are is not clear.... but the trend should have slapped you in the face by now.

[Johnny Horton]

i will take anecdotal evidence over charts and graphs any day.
look at all the sold signs on single family houses around Vancouver (east and west).
from what i hear,people of mainland Chinese descent, are out looking en masse.

[geezer]

I have an interest in an older condo building in a popular area. In the last year 5 or 6 of the 1 bedroom suites have been bought by the same Chinese investor. If any suite is offered at a reasonable price, a bit higher than assessed value, he's all over it with pretty fair offers.

To the best of my knowledge this flurry of activity from a single buyer is something that hasn't been seen in this building before.

[unicas]

In the last year 5 or 6 of the 1 bedroom suites have been bought by the same Chinese investor

Are you sure the guy is not Thompson?