Realtors Say Vancouver Market Turning Down

[vanpro]

See Vancouver realtor Larry Yatkowsky's latest blog on his latest "coffee talk" with other realtor colleagues on the Vancouver market. Apparently the consensus is the marekt is turning negative fast. Here's Larry's summary of their discussion:

Double Hot No Foam
Posted April 18th, 2010 in Real Estate, Sharing the Experience |
Simmering
Often the pulse of Vancouver real estate is found in a cup of coffee.
Meet Up


Every so often a number of associates meet up for a coffee session. The coffee conversation is stimulating as it covers a wide range of topics real estate related from tech talk and legal issues, to market manifestations and of course the required amount of gossip.

Napkin Notes

Discerning the coffee stained scribbles from my crumpled napkin here are some snippets of which some are founded in reality and some on rambling rumor.


•phone calls slowing or have stopped
•the market is tipping
•change to a buyer’s market•still multiples but only on the best of the best product
•fewer buyers prepared to pay asking price
•limited last minute buying due to rate increase
•rate increase versus lower selling price = same dollars out of pocket
•sellers unrealistic about change
•scanning versus faxing – best practice
•last minute sellers
•don’t get competition bureau as it’s been that way for years
•some agents refuse over priced listings
•some see a 10% – 30% drop in prices in the months ahead•hopes for less frenzy, more realism


http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estat ... t-no-foam/

[Johnny Horton]

Great, bring it. The market needs cooling off. It's totally unhealthy for it to keep steaming ahead.
This will make Sellers less greedy. Fun times.

[canadian]

•some see a 10% – 30% drop in prices in the months ahead•hopes for less frenzy, more realism


http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estat ... t-no-foam/

they must be talking about vancouver, wa. this can never be true here. silvy, tommy, mikey cohort tell me its all dandy. and they are doing service to humanity by providing honest, unbiased data here.

[Thompson]

Market is turning down already?

Keep some dignities would you.

[pianoexcellence]

Market is turning down already?

Keep some dignities would you.

I think there could be some more spurts in sales throughout the rest of the spring. It's definitely not done yet until sales slow FOR REAL.

[Lady Luck]

Charts and graphs please. And let us know when Vancouver realtors are back to drinking brewed coffee. That would be a solid indicator.

[Johnny Horton]

Charts and graphs please.

hahahahaha...yah, charts and graphs plz.

[Thompson]

Agentwill's week Stats has been posted today: weekly new list 1592, sales 830, remove 336, total list 11269.
so, MOI = 11269 / 830 x 4 = 3.39 !!

(ps: Areas included for the count are: Vancouver West, Vancouver East, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, New Westminster, Richmond, North Vancouver, and West Vancouver)

[metalhead]

Every so often a number of associates meet up for a coffee session.

What B.S.
Everyone knows they have zero time to meet up for coffee.
RE agents are working 18/7 writing deals. There is a shortage of RE agents. If there were more agents sales would double.

[DAB]

Discerning the coffee stained scribbles from my crumpled napkin here are some snippets of which some are founded in reality and some on rambling rumor.

•still multiples but only on the best of the best product
•fewer buyers prepared to pay asking price

http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estat ... t-no-foam/

Hmm..there are buyers still paying full price and multiples are still out there. Doesn't seem like there's a crash. Market is turning from hot to normal.

[DAB]

Agentwill's week Stats has been posted today: weekly new list 1592, sales 830, remove 336, total list 11269.
so, MOI = 11269 / 830 x 4 = 3.39 !!

(ps: Areas included for the count are: Vancouver West, Vancouver East, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, New Westminster, Richmond, North Vancouver, and West Vancouver)

The sales/list is over 50%. based on that, market is still going strong.

[vanpro]

Charts and graphs please. And let us know when Vancouver realtors are back to drinking brewed coffee. That would be a solid indicator.

You want charts and graphs? Take a look at the listings growth graph and unsold inventory graphs on agent will's web site right below his weekly stats. Do you see the lines going straight up after sharp "V" bottom - that is listings sky-rocketing and unsold inventory (i.e. growth in supply after sales are accounted for) increasing at the fastest pace in last 5 years - even faster than the spring of 2008 before last "correction":

http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/

[Thompson]

It's way too early being excited.

(note: data was copied from vci)

Inventory.png (16.34 KiB) Viewed 1845 times

[Thompson]

that is listings sky-rocketing and unsold inventory (i.e. growth in supply after sales are accounted for) increasing at the fastest pace in last 5 years - even faster than the spring of 2008 before last "correction":

"Unsold inventory", a new concept? All inventory is unsold.

[vanpro]

Thanks Thompson - yes, that's what I am referring to (in the 1st graph) - inventory shooting up after "V" bottom at faster pace than pre-correction spring, 2008. As for MOI graph, it is hard to see current MOI increases on that graph becuase of the scale (due to massive increase in MOI to about 20 in summer/fall 2008 after increase in listings, inventory in spring, 2008). Rob Chipmans' (that cover all of Greater Vancouver comared to agent will's that are restricted to certain areas) most recent weekly stats show MOI aproaching 4.5 and FV is already over 6.0. Prices started to fall in Greater Van. in 2008 when MOI crossed voer 6.0. The "coffee talk" amongst Vancouver realtors that Larry Yatkowsky posted gives some indication (anectotedly) that perhaps future sales will be lower thereby causing MOI to climb faster.

http://www.robchipman.net/april-11th-stats