Has Anyone Followed Arrears Lately?

[gse36]

Has anybody followed arrears lately? It seems that with high prices, and people maxing out, it may be difficult to keep up with mortgage payments:
- job losses
- mat leave
- have kids (kids cost money -- many people don't seem to appreciate that)
- ppl just manage money badly (I mean, to get by on a maxed out mortgage means you have to be VERY GOOD with your money -- then again, if you are VERY GOOD with your money, you probably wouldn't max out the mortgage)
- vacancy in basement suite
- rents in basement suite not as expected
- etc, etc

[gse36]

Interest rates are also all-time low.

What happens when they rise? (rhetorical question).

[Johnny Horton]

I''ve been following a few.....here's one...

[kansai_92]

Thanks for the post gse,
Would be nice if we can get a chart like that updated each quarter.

[kansai_92]

Sweet ride, JH.
I hope you know which ride I'm referring to though.

[Johnny Horton]

Don't worry, I might be old...but I'm not that old that I can't hop on a motorcycle and ride....

[eyesthebye]

did someone say arrears?

[bestplaceonmeth]

I''ve been following a few.....here's one...

Nice, Horton.


I like...big bikes and I cannot lie....

[Johnny Horton]

me too!

[gse36]

Updated. Includes data to end of november....

recent peaks may need updating... unless what happened is just blip/outlier...

[canadian]

it kinda is vague. Wont it be that the arrears should slowdown in light of all this buying frenzy we have seen off late. Isnt it easy to just sell the house and get rid of all that trouble? What gives??

[gse36]

it kinda is vague. Wont it be that the arrears should slowdown in light of all this buying frenzy we have seen off late. Isnt it easy to just sell the house and get rid of all that trouble? What gives??

it made sense a year ago when the market was low. but perhaps whats happening market-wise is a blip. or maybe the number of people in trouble is increasing faster than the people who are getting out of trouble. i mean it takes a while for people to get into trouble (people will try to push and push to meet payments as long as they can -- drawing from LOCs, CC, etc). if prices remain high for a long time, then perhaps the arrears will work their way down.

you have 7 years (2002-2009) of people gradually taking on more and more debt (as prices went up), so the past 1 year of market increase is a blip -- may not be long enough to make a big change. but as more people buy in at these high prices -- if this is a double peak, then things could get worse. a "bull trap" as they call it.

[thirdlittlepig]

it kinda is vague. Wont it be that the arrears should slowdown in light of all this buying frenzy we have seen off late. Isnt it easy to just sell the house and get rid of all that trouble? What gives??

it made sense a year ago when the market was low. but perhaps whats happening market-wise is a blip. or maybe the number of people in trouble is increasing faster than the people who are getting out of trouble. i mean it takes a while for people to get into trouble (people will try to push and push to meet payments as long as they can -- drawing from LOCs, CC, etc). if prices remain high for a long time, then perhaps the arrears will work their way down.

you have 7 years (2002-2009) of people gradually taking on more and more debt (as prices went up), so the past 1 year of market increase is a blip -- may not be long enough to make a big change. but as more people buy in at these high prices -- if this is a double peak, then things could get worse. a "bull trap" as they call it.

In the past 1 year B.C. has had a pretty dramatic increase in unemployment, perhaps less noticeable in the lower mainland due to Olympic fever and the temporary stimulus from that. But in the rest of B.C., logging, tourism, and construction driven economies
have seen a lot of people thrown out of work or forced into low level income jobs of necessity (if they can find them). Never mind buying homes, people can't make their payments and probably wont be able to afford rent either. The US economy is not picking up that fast and jobs here wont either till it does. Rich albertans and americans who were buying or speculating in our market, or even just supporting our tourism are not so rich now. Recovery? Not till way more of these out of work people get back to decent job prospects. B.C.'s economy depends on jobs. We should be holding our politicians feet to the fire until that improves dramatically, there's a lot of catch up to do out there. After that people can think about whether they want to sign up for a fat mortgage or not.

[gse36]

Interesting update. Maybe things are different here after all.



If you look at all the other regions:


It appears that BC is the only one where the situation is getting worse over time (i.e. setting new recent highs). All other regions show decrease or no change over the past few months. BC is the only one with the increase in arrears. This is quite surprising since BC has the highest savings rate, and doesn't have the highest debt, etc.

[Austin]

That's provincial. I believe the debt/savings survey is for Vancouver.

Things are definitely going south in a big way in the Kelowna/Vernon area.