I am forever outpriced

[eyesthebye]

I don't "want" the market to go one way or the other.
What happens will happen.
I just look around me and believe it will go one way more than I believe it will go the other. I really have no bias beyond that.
Of course I could switch from a bearish outlook to a bullish outlook!

Did you think I was a Perma - B. e.a.r?

LOL.

but you also believed the market was going "your" way (down) at a time when it was set to recover. Is there ever a time when you believed it would go up? Is that just after you bought your Abbotsford home?

BTW - you called for my place to be worth 493K. Instead I've gained over 100K in equity, and my place is worth 750K now. Or did you mean 493GBP?

by metalhead on Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:22 pm
Good one.

I'm also curious eyesthebye, did you buy this month?
Do you think prices have bottomed out or did you buy for other reasons?

I don't think $493,000 is out of the question. In fact very likely to go below that.

[metalhead]

When I bought in '91 I thought it would stay stable for a while.
After '81 all I was hoping for was stability.
I never thought it would go up like it has, but it has and so I guess in hindsight it looks like I bought at a good time.
Hindsight is always perfect vision.

Your house, like my house has gained equity on paper.
Neither of has realised any gains because we haven't sold.

I've admitted in several posts that I was surprised by the spring/summer rebound.
Are you going to sell now to realise your gains?
No, me neither.
I guess we'll see what happens in the next few years.

Got your fingers crossed?

[eyesthebye]

When I bought in '91 I thought it would stay stable for a while.
After '81 all I was hoping for was stability.
I never thought it would go up like it has, but it has and so I guess in hindsight it looks like I bought at a good time.
Hindsight is always perfect vision.

Your house, like my house has gained equity on paper.
Neither of has realised any gains because we haven't sold.

I've admitted in several posts that I was surprised by the spring/summer rebound.
Are you going to sell now to realise your gains?
No, me neither.
I guess we'll see what happens in the next few years.

Got your fingers crossed?

I'm surprised too. I'm on record (Feb/March) as saying I thought prices would be stable for 18 months then start to rise. So I do believe we're ready for another correction.

If there are those looking for buying opportunities, keep watching the Months of Inventory along with the daily sell/list ratios (if you can find a replacement for Gavin's). MOI will be over 10 before discounting occurs. And again, don't expect much less than about a 200 House Price Index - which is a pretty good discount from current GV detached of 219. As for specific municipalities, look at the individual HPI graph over time to see where the prices supports are.

[Taipan]

ETB ive got some great koala country to sell you. Covered in trees. Yeah youll have no worries knocking all that stuff down. Just put a bull dozer through it and clear the lot. Approvals - no worries - just a week or two and i doubt they would worry about any conditions. In 4 months time youll be rich!

After reading your comments above, i see no reason why the above comment wouldnt appear to be another great buying opportunity.

[DAB]

Okay. I just picked up that AbbyDabby lives in Abbotsford. If you can't afford to buy in Abbotsford or Mission, you are probably a family of 4 with a single wage earner, making minimum wage. If so, you were always priced out.

Here is a 2 bedroom and 2 bathroom place in Mission, 912 sq.ft. for $159,000 ask!!!

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.a ... Id=7673874

AbbyDabby, quit complaining with the woe is me story. Even if the market did soften, what do you think this place would fall to in price? $145,000??? Would that get your interest? Quit your whining and buy a damn place!!

Sorry for the tough love, but you have a bad attitude which will get you absolutely no where in life.

Wow, under $200 /sq feet! Talk about affordable. It may even make sense as an investment property.

[abbydabby]

OK. That was actually an anecdote. I will probably return to the market but only well after the Olympics. i believe that BC/Canada govt artificially prevented the crash so we can have straight-face Olympics. I 'refuse' to be in the market right now. I still believe the basis for this overpriced market is artificial and it will eventually have to crash or correct gracefully at the very least. Abbotsford is still largely a farming community and no new home is priced below 500k mark. For Vancouverites that sounds like a good deal, but again, this is Abbotsford. Just a few years ago that would have been 250k and in this time incomes remained about the same.

I wrote that subject because the "forever outpriced" now has new fuel. We are about to reach that 2008 peak again and bulls are raging. But seriously, I don now have to own if a new home in Abby reaches 700k in a couple of years. I seriously say, screw that! I will not own a dump if I cannot afford a decent new home. I will be a renter fo the rest of my life rather than be locked in a mortgage and tax hikes to pay for Olympics + the return of the interest rates for the rest of my life. I prefer freedom. This is insane, will remain insane for as long as something in the artificial system cracks and things return to normal. Cheap money to the rescue!... We'll see.

[Taipan]

That is a wonderfully honest and totally undelusional post by a real individual.

You dont need a degree in economics, nor land economics to rage against the insanity currently pervading the concrete towers of Vancouver.

A very fair and rightful statement of anger against the stupidty.

[eyesthebye]

"abbydabby" i believe that BC/Canada govt artificially prevented the crash so we can have straight-face Olympics. I 'refuse' to be in the market right now. I still believe the basis for this overpriced market is artificial and it will eventually have to crash or correct gracefully at the very least.

if the market is "artificial" then it would be a lot of speculators driving the market - it's not. Given the amount of CMHC involvement, the market is driven in large part by first time buyers. This is REAL demand - not pretend. I look around my office full of dual income professionals and lost count of the number of people who've bought homes the past 6 months.

If you define a "crash" as 10-15% down, I agree. Don't expect any more than this

[dot com refugee]

if the market is "artificial" then it would be a lot of speculators driving the market - it's not.

Based on what - wishful thinking? I've lost count of the number of speculative condo purchases just from friends and family. Did you see the "I buy three my husband buy three" video from Global? Have you heard the quotes from Bob Rennie? How about the West side SFH flips regularly posted here. This is just a handful, but there are annecdotes galore of a speculation fueled market.

Given the amount of CMHC involvement, the market is driven in large part by first time buyers. This is REAL demand - not pretend.

WTF are you talking about? The CMHC is HAPPY to lend for investment properties. They are fueling speculators with credit they otherwise couldn't get. Are you really so ignorant as to think the CMHC is just for first time buyers?

If you define a "crash" as 10-15% down, I agree. Don't expect any more than this

Have you seen Vancouver's price crash history? Why would it be any different this time? Oh right, the games. That will save the market lol.

I look around my office full of dual income professionals and lost count of the number of people who've bought homes the past 6 months.

I do agree with you on this one, in that friends and associates in my age 30something age group have virtually all bought their own homes and many have a rental property. Even the few in my circle in their 20s have bought. I'm about the only person I know that rents.

[vreaa]

eyesthebye: "I look around my office full of dual income professionals and [I've] lost count of the number of people who've bought homes the past 6 months."

dot com refugee: "I do agree with you on this one, in that friends and associates in my 30something age group have virtually all bought their own homes and many have a rental property. Even the few in my circle in their 20s have bought. I'm about the only person I know that rents."

This exchange has been archived, with commentary, at Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive as reflective of important activity and sentiment in the local RE market ->
We all know lots of people who have recently bought: Indicative of a Market Top?

[kansai_92]

Given the amount of CMHC involvement, the market is driven in large part by first time buyers. This is REAL demand - not pretend. I look around my office full of dual income professionals and lost count of the number of people who've bought homes the past 6 months.

While it's great that your company seems to be doing well, I don't believe it's the norm.
My company is laying off staff. Friends that I know are getting hours cut and hiring freezes just about everywhere.
And my circle is not specific to one industry. I'm talking IT, retail, accounting, restaurant, healthcare, insurance, etc.

A lot of first time buyers entering the market means that demand is being borrowed. People used to get married, settle down, then rent for a while, then purchase their home. Now out of fear of being priced out forever, they're borrowing down payment from parents and purchasing well before 30. Home ownership is a noble goal, but everything comes at a price.

[Greenhorn]

I know several first time home buyers under the age of 30 who are also first time landlords. Buying an investment property is the only way they can afford to buy a house in Vancouver. Perverse isn't it. The plan involves getting a 5% down mortgage on their house which is borrowed from the Bank of Mom and Dad or the Bank of Grandma. They also borrow the down payment for the investment property from the same place. Once the investment property doubles in value in 5 years, they pay off the parents/grand parents and pay down the mortgage on the house that they really can't afford.

Did I tell you they get home stay students in their house? Several people I know are renting out bedrooms to two or more students at $750 per student. That's an extra $1,500 per month so they can pay the mortgage they can't afford. So they have international students and their friends coming and going all night. They wake up early to make breakfast and lunches like slaves. Did I tell you some of these students have poor hygiene and stink? Did I tell you jewelery has gone missing? Did I tell you some students forget to flush the toilet everyday so there is a nice present waiting to be seen every morning?

Did I tell you about the lack of tenant screening on the investment property because they ask an above market rent and only get the riff raft? The bounced cheques. The late cheques. It is causing lots of stress.

[registered]

Greenhorn, c'mon man. Keep your eye on the ball. In LTB's private language, that level of risk taking, that stretching to the max and absolute dependence on wild future appreciation, isn't speculation. Any chance those are legal suites, or can we throw tax evasion into the equation too?

[Greenhorn]

Greenhorn, c'mon man. Keep your eye on the ball. In LTB's private language, that level of risk taking, that stretching to the max and absolute dependence on wild future appreciation, isn't speculation. Any chance those are legal suites, or can we throw tax evasion into the equation too?

What is scary is the parents/grand parents had to mortgage their homes to lend junior the money. Vancouver has made a whole industry/economy out of high priced real estate and entitlement.

[kansai_92]

I know several first time home buyers under the age of 30 who are also first time landlords. Buying an investment property is the only way they can afford to buy a house in Vancouver. Perverse isn't it. The plan involves getting a 5% down mortgage on their house which is borrowed from the Bank of Mom and Dad or the Bank of Grandma. They also borrow the down payment for the investment property from the same place. Once the investment property doubles in value in 5 years, they pay off the parents/grand parents and pay down the mortgage on the house that they really can't afford.

This is the same as what I'm seeing amongst people I know.
On paper it looks fine, but the one HUGE assumption is rising prices.
If prices fall or even if they are FLAT, the strategy unravels.