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tdma800
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:24 am

November 9th 2016
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-11-09/dona ... to-office/


Donald Trump campaigned on pledges to "make America great again" and "drain the swamp" of the Washington political elite - but how does he plan to make good on his promises?
The Republican often remained vague on the details of his landmark commitments, most notably how to get Mexico to pay for a wall it does not want along the southern US border.
But the hotel mogul has still offered a general hit-list of priorities that he will be expected to enact or account for in his first 100 days in office - and with the Republicans retaining control of Congress he faces less opposition to seeing his presidential plans become reality.
 
jimtan
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:24 pm

Surprise. The Asian markets bounce back. Still, lots of action there because Donald has promised to impose 45% tariffs on China.

We'll have to wait and see how Donald's contradictions play out. GOP are free traders while the angry mob are nationalists.

Here's an interesting thought. How will China retaliate? Tariffs on USA goods, of course. They could also withdraw their $1.5 trillion investment in USA Treasury debt. That will really help with interest rates.

Why did American stocks rise today? That's because Donald has promised huge tax cuts without funding the deficit. Good for companies.

The Fed will have to raise interest rates faster and terminate QE. Will that be good for interest rates?

Donald is ambitious. He's not just pushing interest rates by one factor. He's doing the max to help borrowers.
 
tdma800
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:30 pm

 
jimtan
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:01 am

Here's some important stats.

China owns 10% of American Treasury debt. On the other hand, China does $500b of trade a year with the States. But, trade is lopsided in China's favor. Their surplus of $300b a year is recycled to finance American fiscal deficit.

The Donald has made some dramatic promises. But, economics is a complex system. Can Donald take expert advise?

Apparently not during his campaign. We'll have to see how he 'changes' the world. That said, the best investment in troubled times is in cold hard cash.
 
tdma800
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:57 am

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_e ... ctive.html
"A Canadian who has lived in New York and California, he said he was, like many people, “shocked and stunned” by the result.
But, he said, “Our brand — call it strong, fair, tolerant and welcoming — could stand out even more clearly now as a desired place to invest capital in real property.
“Countries compete for immigrants, those with the best skills and resources, and differentiation could be very helpful for Canada. A Trump-led America will look very different from Canada,” said Soper."
 
westcoastfella
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:43 am

jimtan wrote:
I'm down to just 15% of my portfolio in stocks. A Trump win would be easy for me. I'll dump my bank shares and buy gold. No way is gold going down!!!


What shape are you in? What would be the first thing you do on November 9th?

How is your 85% cash working out?  Did you dump all your bank shares and buy your gold yet?   :mrgreen:

If so, you've missed quite the rally.  Since Monday, the Dow is up nearly 900, SP financial index is up over 10%, gold mostly flat.  The world seems to have decided that Trump is a shitty person, but he's good for industry.  Admittedly, I'm as surprised as anyone, I too was ready to go on a bit of a buying spree yesterday...but thankfully I'm pretty fully invested already, so I just rose with the tide.
 
jimtan
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:19 pm

Hehe. How has the 15% transfer tax worked out for Burnaby?

I'm actually pleased about my portfolio. Selling into the rally earlier this year, I'm prepared to sit on the cash for two years. After all, RE isn't going up.

I sold the last of my C$ shares when TSE was 14550. Where is it headed after the NAFTA 'renegotiation'? Not to mention the renewal of the softwood lumber agreement.

My American bank shares are finally outperforming. Looking for an exit point. Fortunately, I didn't hold on to exporters like GE.

P.S. IMHO importers like Walmart are in trouble because they source from China. Can they increase prices to match cost increases? Price rises will just drive interest rates higher. Finally, US$ likely to keep strengthening as % rise.

Get it?
 
tdma800
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:26 pm

Experienced people know that multi national stores with operations in Canada are licensed their name by their parent but otherwise a totally different company, and thus uneffected by the Americans.  The source of their imports is mostly public even to the point of which port and ship they depart from before arriving in deltaport lol. However its always good when people buy taxable investments since it keeps everyone elses taxes lower. You can't live in your stocks lol.
 
tiga
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:17 am

http://www.rew.ca/news/vancouver-real-e ... .ca%2Fnews

Not likely Americans can come here that easily, but there may be some repatriates. Cash out their US holdings, and retire here at 35% premium. A lot of people (Canadians too) made it pretty big in NYC and San Fran based on finance and tech options respectively.

Lots of racism in the US now. 
 
tdma800
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:28 am

tiga wrote:
http://www.rew.ca/news/vancouver-real-estate-searches-from-us-sources-triple-after-trump-win-1.2624751?rew.ca%2Fnews=rew.ca%2Fnews

Not likely Americans can come here that easily, but there may be some repatriates. Cash out their US holdings, and retire here at 35% premium. A lot of people (Canadians too) made it pretty big in NYC and San Fran based on finance and tech options respectively.

Lots of racism in the US now. 

The Americans can come with one of 3 common ways - a relationship , or study something, or buy an existing company or make a new company, the required amount in Vancouver is only $200,000.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:17 am

jimtan wrote:
Hehe. How has the 15% transfer tax worked out for Burnaby?

I'm actually pleased about my portfolio. Selling into the rally earlier this year, I'm prepared to sit on the cash for two years. After all, RE isn't going up.

I sold the last of my C$ shares when TSE was 14550. Where is it headed after the NAFTA 'renegotiation'? Not to mention the renewal of the softwood lumber agreement.

My American bank shares are finally outperforming. Looking for an exit point. Fortunately, I didn't hold on to exporters like GE.

P.S. IMHO importers like Walmart are in trouble because they source from China. Can they increase prices to match cost increases? Price rises will just drive interest rates higher. Finally, US$ likely to keep strengthening as % rise.

Get it

I don't really care about the 15% tax - my home accounts for a relatively low % of my net worth, its paid for, and I have no plans to sell it anytime soon.  So all good I guess?

As for direction of economy due to NAFTA renegotiation, China trade renegotiations, etc - no one knows.  Who knows how much power Trump will be able to impart on the larger global economy.  Its hard to say how much he'll want to renegotiate these things if/when the impact on citizens is negative via higher prices and less choice.  Will the wall even go up?  Trump is a gigantic bag of unpredictability, that can change his mind and focus on major policy decisions on a dime.  Making any long term investing decisions based on what you know about him today is futile.  So I'll happily stay the course for now.
 
tdma800
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:23 am

There was a list of BC tax revenues that was released recently and it showed that lumber wasnt a big of a deal, certainly not the biggest source. so whats the worry?
 
jimtan
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Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:50 am

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/trump-th ... -loss.html



'Trump Thump' whacks bond market for $1 trillion loss
 
tdma800
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Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:53 am

http://www.news1130.com/2016/11/13/will ... al-estate/

With a high American dollar relative to the Canadian dollar, their enthusiasm has damped somewhat. I think this may dampen it further and we may see more interest in Canadian recreational property.”
 
jimtan
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Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: What would you do if The Donald wins?

Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:12 am

How quickly ...

"Panic in housing market as Trump effect pushes mortgage rates to 4%"

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/trump-ef ... -to-4.html

Could it happen here?
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