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Geyser
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Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:59 pm

Anybody remember this from July 2012? 

                        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) July 10, 2012
Average Vancouver home price jumps to $1.1 million.
                        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now check out the realtor's latest report at Zolo.ca.  

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

Oops, we' re back to 2012 prices. Four years of price increase wiped out in a couple of months! And the trend is pointing down!
 
rMBA13
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:46 pm

Awesome.. now lets hope that condo prices also go back to 2012 level. Im ready to buy one..
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:51 pm

Ah, good ol' Geyser, back to his fear mongering and doom-and-gloom posts with little substance...

I didn't remember this from 2012, so i went and looked it up:  http://www.news1130.com/2012/07/10/average-vancouver-home-price-jumps-to-1-1-million/

The housing market may be slowing, but that hasn’t stopped the average price of a house in Vancouver from jumping to $1.1 million.

The latest [color=#2fac5c]Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast shows year-over-year, the prices of detached bungalows and two-storey homes are up about six per cent in the city. Standard condos jumped 1.6 per cent to $507,000.[/color]...
...
...


So back in 2012, the average price of a HOUSE (ie, SFH, detached, bunglaow, etc) was 1.1M, and average price for condo was 507K, and so on.

Your numbers from Zolo include all housing classes, not just SFH.  The average is what it is, just a straight average - total value of all sales divided by number of sales.  It doesn't care whether or not you sold 100% SFH, or 1 SFH, or all 1 bedroom apartments.  Which is really why, when you build an average out of such vastly different data, its nearly meaningless in the big scheme of things.  Zolo seems to understand this, which is why they've even gone to some lengths to put a disclaimer right below the average number:



[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.541176)]The change in average home price is affected by two factors:[/color]
  1. The proportions of home types sold has changed. This means that the mix of homes sold has shifted from a majority of higher-priced homes to a majority of lower-priced homes, or vice versa.
  2. Assuming the mix of homes is relatively stable, all homes are being sold for more or less than the last period.
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.541176)]For example, if the average price decreased from last year, all homes sold this year were either sold for less and/or the majority of them were budget-friendly condos, rather than expensive single-family homes.[/color]

Looking even further into the numbers, I can see that SFH average price is 2.4M, which is actually up 6% YOY.  Townhomes are at 1.2M, up 20% YOY.  Condos, 738K, up 18% YOY.  So not only are we not anywhere close to 2012 prices (in fact, SFH seem to have more than doubled in value since the News 1130 article from all those years ago), we're actually trending up YOY.  Yet, the AVERAGE SELLING PRICE ACROSS ALL HOUSING CLASSES is down in that same period.  Why do you think that might be the case?
 
danny
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:06 am

Can't even tell if Geyser is serious anymore, or just straight trolling. I bought detached in Port Moody 2012, could sell for double today.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:19 am

danny wrote:
Can't even tell if Geyser is serious anymore, or just straight trolling. I bought detached in Port Moody 2012, could sell for double today.


You should know the answer to this one by now
 
Geyser
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Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sun Oct 02, 2016 1:37 pm

westcoastfella wrote:
Ah, good ol' Geyser, back to his fear mongering and doom-and-gloom posts with little substance...

I didn't remember this from 2012, so i went and looked it up:  http://www.news1130.com/2012/07/10/average-vancouver-home-price-jumps-to-1-1-million/

The housing market may be slowing, but that hasn’t stopped the average price of a house in Vancouver from jumping to $1.1 million.

The latest [color=#2fac5c]Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast shows year-over-year, the prices of detached bungalows and two-storey homes are up about six per cent in the city. Standard condos jumped 1.6 per cent to $507,000.[/color]...
...
...


So back in 2012, the average price of a HOUSE (ie, SFH, detached, bunglaow, etc) was 1.1M, and average price for condo was 507K, and so on.

Your numbers from Zolo include all housing classes, not just SFH.  The average is what it is, just a straight average - total value of all sales divided by number of sales.  It doesn't care whether or not you sold 100% SFH, or 1 SFH, or all 1 bedroom apartments.  Which is really why, when you build an average out of such vastly different data, its nearly meaningless in the big scheme of things.  Zolo seems to understand this, which is why they've even gone to some lengths to put a disclaimer right below the average number:



[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.541176)]The change in average home price is affected by two factors:[/color]
  1. The proportions of home types sold has changed. This means that the mix of homes sold has shifted from a majority of higher-priced homes to a majority of lower-priced homes, or vice versa.
  2. Assuming the mix of homes is relatively stable, all homes are being sold for more or less than the last period.
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.541176)]For example, if the average price decreased from last year, all homes sold this year were either sold for less and/or the majority of them were budget-friendly condos, rather than expensive single-family homes.[/color]

Looking even further into the numbers, I can see that SFH average price is 2.4M, which is actually up 6% YOY.  Townhomes are at 1.2M, up 20% YOY.  Condos, 738K, up 18% YOY.  So not only are we not anywhere close to 2012 prices (in fact, SFH seem to have more than doubled in value since the News 1130 article from all those years ago), we're actually trending up YOY.  Yet, the AVERAGE SELLING PRICE ACROSS ALL HOUSING CLASSES is down in that same period.  Why do you think that might be the case?

Ah, so many perma-bulls in panicked denial of what's before their eyes.

Don't want to believe the realtors who run Zolo.ca?  Okay, lets see what a well established local realtor says about the latest numbers on Vancouver's tumbling detached home prices:

http://vancitycondoguide.com/september-detached-market-report/

Summary
I could sit here and throw stats and numbers at you all day and you could analyze them until you’re blue in the face. Here’s the quick and dirty.

It was another slow month for the detached market in September. Many pundits predicted a turnaround after a [color=#416ed2]disastrous August, well, it didn’t happen. The market also didn’t go completely belly up. For the most part, September was awfully identical to August.[/color]

[size=150]September started out as a very ugly month and slowly rebounded, somewhat. We still set record low sales in some areas. Price reductions are piling up, and the market showed no real signs of a turnaround."[/size]
 
Geyser
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sun Oct 02, 2016 1:57 pm

For those who hate Zolo's numbers for "all properties" let's focus on the numbers for only the detached market. 

Scroll down at this blog page: https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

Note that they are ALL substantially down in value in the last three months, note that 4 bedroom and 6 bedroom detached houses have fallen by over a million dollars in value in just the 3 months, yet the permabulls still claim everything is just dandy. Hilarious! :lol:


Here's another telling trend in the end of September numbers:


Sales to Actives Ratio


Sales to actives ratio continued it’s downward trend. Which in my opinion is a very good metric to use when gauging the market. As per the board, anything under 14% is considered a buyers market. Anything over 20% is a sellers market.

Vancouver East- 10%
Vancouver West- 9%
Richmond- 10%
Burnaby- 12%
REBGV- 12.5%

But that's okay, feel free to ignore the stats if it helps you sleep better.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:09 pm

danny wrote:
Can't even tell if Geyser is serious anymore, or just straight trolling. I bought detached in Port Moody 2012, could sell for double today.

Most of the time its abject jealousy - want what you cant have, and bring other down to your level
 
westcoastfella
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Posts: 1581
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:11 am

Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:52 pm

Geyser wrote:
Ah, so many perma-bulls in panicked denial of what's before their eyes.

Don't want to believe the realtors who run Zolo.ca?  Okay, lets see what a well established local realtor says about the latest numbers on Vancouver's tumbling detached home prices:

http://vancitycondoguide.com/september-detached-market-report/

Summary
I could sit here and throw stats and numbers at you all day and you could analyze them until you’re blue in the face. Here’s the quick and dirty.

It was another slow month for the detached market in September. Many pundits predicted a turnaround after a [color=#416ed2]disastrous August, well, it didn’t happen. The market also didn’t go completely belly up. For the most part, September was awfully identical to August.[/color]

[size=150]September started out as a very ugly month and slowly rebounded, somewhat. We still set record low sales in some areas. Price reductions are piling up, and the market showed no real signs of a turnaround."[/size]

The thing about numbers - they don't lie, but they don't always tell you the absolute truth either.  I actually do believe the numbers from Zolo - I'm sure they're accurate, for what they represent.  They just don't really represent anything definitive, or even tangible to the market.  As I said, even Zolo admits the same issue, and has added a disclaimer right below the numbers that you are so anxious to cling to as absolute proof of a dropping market.

I should note, this was true for me in an up market as well - there was no way to tell from median prices what your house may or may not be worth, until you put it on the market and sell it.  In a varied housing market with a lot of geographies and a lot of types with wide differences in price, an average simply doesn't mean anything.

Hell Geyser, even your beloved Steve Saretsky has the exact same thing to say in his article that you have quoted:

The Vancouver real estate market is incredibly volatile right now. With new policies being announced on almost a weekly basis, such as the [color=#4db2ec]empty homes tax, and the new policies around Airbnb.
[/color]
As the market continues to change on essentially a weekly basis, it’s critical you take all stats with a grain of salt. Numbers can be up one week, and down another. What’s critical is that you look for the trends. I discussed this in my post [color=#4db2ec]What is Happening to Sales Prices in Vancouver?
[/color]
Although detached numbers look rather grim, they have rebounded since my early report [color=#4db2ec]September Sales On Pace for Record Lows. However, I wouldn’t write that post off, the stats below for months end are not much better.[/color]

My "quick and dirty" - the markets are volatile, and its nearly impossible to spot a consistent trend among so much uncertainty.  Which I would probably agree with.

But hey, I'm game.  Your initial assertion that housing prices are down to 2012 prices can be relatively easily proven.  Because no one believes the median or "benchmark" price, I'd be willing to eat my words if you can find a few SFH in Vancouver that recently (say, in the past month) sold for the same price as in 2012.  Houses turn over all the time, it might take a while, but eventually we'll find a house that sold in 2012 for x, that has since resold in the past couple of months for y.  According to your blazing headline, x and y should be the same.  Go find em.
 
danny
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:43 pm

For those who hate Zolo's numbers for "all properties" let's focus on the numbers for only the detached market.


I haven't heard anyone say they "hate" Zolo's numbers for all properties, but it does seem there's a consensus understanding of why they can't be used to make your hot take threadline.

I do appreciate a good pivot, but think there's probably also a consensus understanding on why you're changing your tune from "we're down to 2012 prices" to "we're down from peak". Most here seem to agree with you on the latter, it's the inaccurate sensationalism that's got folks annoyed.

Maybe take your eyes off Zolo for just a minute and think about what you're saying, and how you're saying it. Or you know, double down.
 
Geyser
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Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:53 pm

Ouch, my bad, you guys are correct. I read this line from Zolo:

"Current Vancouver MLS stats indicate an average house price of $1,041,639" 

I failed to realize that they weren't referring to "average house prices" at all, they were referring to "average home prices", including townhouses and apartments.

So let's see some real numbers:

Detached (Yattermatters)
 February 2012’s all time high of $1,235,244 dropped $193,919 to reach July 2012’s average price total $1,041,325.

Mid Sept 2016
The average detached home price fell almost $300,000 –more than 16% – dropping to $1,470,265 from $1,764,682.

We currently still need to drop a bit more that $200K on detached homes in order to be back at 2012 prices but, given the fact that they have already dropped $300K in a matter of weeks, perhaps we will see a return to 2012 prices a bit faster than some might expect.

Finally, I agree that the Benchmark number is a highly unreliable, backwards looking, heavily smoothed out measure of how the market was performing a few months ago. The Average and median numbers can also be misleading but the median is by far the most reliable of all three for assessing current conditions. 

When the average and the median prices are moving in lockstep, as they are now, that adds to their credibility. Currently, both the median and average charts show detached prices trending down since January/February and Both show prices crashing in August.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:13 pm

Coming out of winter.! we're going to the moon!
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:09 pm

Lol I almost forgot how stupid Geyser is.

Got a good laugh reading this again.
 
jimtan
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Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:12 pm

tdma800 wrote:
People dont realize that if you could get a 3000 sq ft house for only $500,000 in Vancouver would it still be a desirable place to live.

This guy beats Geyser hands down.
 
tdma800
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Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Vancouver back to 2012 prices and trending down!

Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:14 pm

yzfr1 wrote:
Lol I almost forgot how stupid Geyser is.

Got a good laugh reading this again.

Well, you could get a house in Labrador City for $200,000. Would you want to live there? Bingo! 
Same thing applies to Toronto as well. How many people would want to live there if it was the kind of place where a house was only $200,000 lol

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