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Real Estate Talks This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS 2020-10-14T18:52:18-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/app.php/feed 2020-10-14T18:52:18-08:00 2020-10-14T18:52:18-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129783&p=345470#p345470 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Canadian Real Estate Prices Make Biggest Jump In The G7, During The Pandemic]]> Canadian real estate prices made one of the largest leaps on news of a pandemic-driven economic shut down. US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas data shows most G7 countries saw prices rise in real terms during Q2. Canada however, saw real home prices launch at the fastest pace of any of the advanced economies. This comes despite a deterioration in the indicators traditionally attributed to price growth, such as employment and immigration.

Canadian Real Estate Prices See Biggest Jump In Q2
Canadian real estate prices increased at the fastest rate of any G7 country in the second quarter. Canadian real home prices climbed 2.42% in Q2 2020, when compared to the previous quarter. France is a distant second in the Group, with prices rising 1.71% over the same period. Germany is the third fastest, at 1.14% in the quarter – less than half the increase in Canada. Pandemic stimulus helped drive Canadian real estate prices to a new record high. With almost no immigration, and soaring vacancy rates.

On the bottom half of pandemic gains are the US, Japan, and the UK. The US increased 0.98 in Q2, when compared to the previous quarter. Japan and the UK made declines, with prices falling 0.86% and 0.90% respectively.

Canadian Real Estate Prices See Second Fastest Annual Growth
In terms of real annual gains, Canada is a close second behind France. France saw real home prices rise 5.42% in Q2 2020, when compared to the same quarter a year before. Canada follows with an increase of 5.39%, just 2 bps below France. Germany is in third with a 5.18% increase, compared to last year. It should be noted while all three of these markets are seeing similar price increases, both France and Germany have not seen such large gains persistently over the past few years.

The US, UK, and Japan all had less impressive home price gains over the past year, when adjusted for inflation. The US saw prices increase 3.37% in Q2 2020, when compared to the same quarter last year. The UK follows an increase of 0.36%, a tenth of what the US is seeing. Japan is seeing the worst performance in the G7, down 1.30% from last year.

G7 Real Estate Price Index
An inflation adjusted index of G7 real estate prices.
Source: US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Better Dwelling.
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 7.50.14 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:52 pm


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2020-10-04T10:52:07-08:00 2020-10-04T10:52:07-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129782&p=345469#p345469 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Canadian Population Growth Slows To Lowest Rate In Years]]>
Canadian Population Sees Rapidly Slowing Growth
Canada’s population slowed to a multi-year low for the rate of growth, but still made substantial gains. Stat Can estimates the population reached 38.01 million in Q3 2020, up 25,384 (0.07%) people from the previous quarter. Compared to last year, this works out to an increase of 411,854 (1.10%) people. Extremely slow quarter, but it gives an idea of how quickly the population was growing before the pandemic.

Compared to last year, Canada’s population growth has been relatively slow. The annual increase was about 150,000 people fewer than last year. The annual rate of growth was also the slowest observed since Q2 2016. The slowed growth has been attributed to closed borders hampering immigration, as well as “excess mortality” during the pandemic.

Ontario’s Population Sees Slowest Rate Of Growth Since 2016
Ontario represents the largest chunk of population growth in the quarter, and grew in line with the national rate. The population estimate increased by 10,517 (0.07%) people in Q3 2020, up 189,296 (1.30%) people from last year. The annual rate is the lowest since 2016, largely due to the most recent quarter.

British Columbia’s Population Adds 5,300 People In Q3
British Columbia also saw slow growth, but the quarter was a little better than the national average. The population estimates the province added 5,308 (0.10%) people in Q3 2020, and is now up 56,757 (1.11%) from last year. The quarterly rate of growth is slightly higher than the average, but the annual growth rate is the lowest since 2011.

Quebec’s Population Grew By Just 2,500 People
Quebec is seeing one of the more unusual slowdowns in population growth, even amidst a national decline. The province is estimated to have added 2,517 (0.03%) people in Q3 2020, and is now up 72,868 (0.86%) from last year. The annual growth is also the lowest since 2017 for the province. The quarterly and annual growth are both below the national ratio, meaning the province is overrepresented in the decline.

Canada’s population still put in some huge numbers over the past year, but slowed fast in the most recent quarter. This is largely considered temporary, due to the pandemic slowing down immmigration. However, economic cycles tend to influence population growth and outflows as well. A recent forecast from RBC stated they don’t expect a bounce back to normal for at least 18 months.

Canadian Annual Population Growth Estimate
The 12-month percent change in population across Canada, and in selected provinces.
Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.
Screen Shot 2020-10-04 at 11.51.42 AM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:52 am


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2020-09-16T12:10:44-08:00 2020-09-16T12:10:44-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129781&p=345468#p345468 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Greater Vancouver Detached Real Estate Sales Have Best August Since 2015]]> Greater Vancouver detached real estate sales are still enjoying the delayed spring rush this summer. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) data shows detached sales had the biggest August since 2015. Prices are also seeing growth accelerate as well, but higher inventory levels mean it’s nowhere near as tight as half a decade ago.

Greater Vancouver Detached Real Estate Prices Rise Over 6%
The price of a detached home in Greater Vancouver has gotten a boost during the pandemic. REBGV’s detached benchmark reached $1,491,300 in August, up 6.6% from the same month last year. In the City, prices in Vancouver East hit $1,502,700, up 10.1% from last year. In Vancouver West, the benchmark reached $3,084,600, up 5.6% from last year. The increase marks the fastest price growth in years for detached homes.

Greater Vancouver detached prices are rising rapidly, but are still down from just a few years ago. All three of the above regions have seen the rate of growth accelerate, and REBGV is growing at the fastest pace since 2018. However, REBGV data shows prices are still down 6.5% from just three years ago. In the City, Vancouver East is down 3.1% and Vancouver West is down 15.7% from three years ago.

Detached Sales Had The Biggest August Since 2015
Greater Vancouver detached sales had the best August in years. REBGV reported 1,095 detached sales in August, down 2.3% from the month before. The increase works out to 55.1% higher than the same month last year. That makes this past August the busiest for detached sales since 2015.

Greater Vancouver Detached August Sales
The number of detached homes sold in the month of August, across Greater Vancouver.

New Inventory Is Hitting The Market Very Quickly As Well
Like most markets and segments, Greater Vancouver is seeing a significant increase in sellers hitting the market. REBGV reported 1,837 new listings in August, down 3.57% from the month before. This works out to an increase of 41.85% from the same month last year. Despite the flood of new listings, it was lower than the rise in sales, pushing total inventory levels lower.

Greater Vancouver Detached Sales Vs. New Listings
The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Active listings, or total inventory, for detached homes is significantly lower this year. REBGV reported 4,614 active listings for detached homes in August, up 3.45% from a month before. This number is still 21.84% lower than the same month last year though. While that makes the market tighter, it’s nowhere as tight as it was back in 2015 when sales were last this high.

Greater Vancouver detached real estate prices have been rising at the fastest pace in years. They aren’t quite back to where they were a few years ago, but price growth is undeniably accelerating. New listings are also rising quickly though, making it a very different market. Sales are the highest since 2015, but the level of inventory is nowhere as low as it was back then.

Greater Vancouver Detached Benchmark Price
The price of a typical detached home across the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.
Screen Shot 2020-09-16 at 1.09.39 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:10 pm


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2020-09-09T11:53:43-08:00 2020-09-09T11:53:43-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129780&p=345467#p345467 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Landrush conference September 19th!]]> Rick and his spouse Cheri began investing in real estate in 1997 and built up a substantial portfolio of properties in Western Canada. Rick and Cheri are four-time Deal of the Year award winners with Ozzie's REAG group, three times for Best Joint Venture Partnership and once for Best Land Deal.
They built first 2o, then 30 and then 63 units and now have
have developments planned in both Langford and Esquimalt

RICK, KNOWS WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT!.Last year he told the Vancouver audience why Victoria was the place to be.This year he is proven right. Dramatically so!

RICK'S OUTLOOK FOR THE HOT, HOT MARKET IN VICTORIA CANNOT BE MISSED!

Go to http://LANDRUSHCANADA.COM and look up all speakers!

(Oh, he also wrote 2 books and part of two more along the way)

Statistics: Posted by ozzie — Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:53 am


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2020-09-01T15:31:30-08:00 2020-09-01T15:31:30-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129779&p=345466#p345466 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • German speaking influencers]]> She published ...
“75 German-Speaking Influential People in Western Canada”

Read the personal stories and accomplishments of Austrians, Germans & Swiss in Western Canada.

Buy it here....
75 German-Speaking Influential Peopl…
https://www.magcloud.com/browse/issue/1 ... __r=317124

Ok, ok I'm in it...

Statistics: Posted by ozzie — Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:31 pm


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2020-08-27T12:03:56-08:00 2020-08-27T12:03:56-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129778&p=345465#p345465 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • BCREA: "Surprisingly strong" market recovery to last well into 2021]]>
26 Aug 2020

Despite a flagging economy, the British Columbia housing market is enjoying a robust pace of recovery that will propel it to new heights in the months ahead, according to the province’s foremost real estate organization.

In the third-quarter edition of its housing forecast, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) said that sales activity has now exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels, “combined with a decline in the supply of re-sale listings driven by the pandemic.”

“The outlook for the BC housing market is much brighter following a surprisingly strong recovery,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA chief economist. “We expect home sales will sustain this momentum into 2021.”

Among the major drivers of the trend would be the prevailing environment of record-low rates, BCREA said.

Residential sales through the province’s MLS will increase by 6.5% this year, likely reaching 82,380 transactions. Activity is projected to go up by another 17.6% to 96,860 sales in 2021.

The association’s forecast also pegged average sales prices to grow by 7.7% this year, and then by another 3.7% in 2021.

Price growth might be further aggravated by supply-side issues, as Statistics Canada data suggested that housing inventory in Canada’s largest markets will need considerable time to recover from the COVID-19 slowdown.

According to StatsCan, investment in residential construction fell by 21.4% annually in May to reach $7.83 billion. Proportionally, Vancouver had the greatest year-over-year plunge in residential construction investment, declining by 44% to $852 million in May.

A July analysis by real estate portal Better Dwelling said that compared to the rest of Canada, investment in Vancouver is recovering at a much slower rate.

https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine. ... 32707.aspx

Statistics: Posted by news — Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:03 pm


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2020-08-17T19:23:45-08:00 2020-08-17T19:23:45-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129777&p=345464#p345464 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit The Highest Level Ever, Here’s Why It’s Not Surprising]]> Canadian real estate sales hit a new high, along with the highest unemployment in history. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the number of home sales set a record in July. Not just for the month either – it was the biggest month ever. Here’s why the surge was largely expected, and isn’t the clear sign of a return to a booming market. At least yet.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit A New Record High
Canadian real estate sales hit a new record monthly high, across the country. There were 63,533 sales reported in July, up 30.5% from the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CREA estimates 53,085 sales for the month, up 26.0% from the month before. This isn’t just a high for sale volumes, it’s massive growth not seen in a decade.

Last month showed growth accelerated to the highest level in a decade, along with record sale volumes. The 30.5% increase in July is the highest rate of growth since the Great Recession. The number of sales for the month wasn’t just the highest for July either. It was the biggest single month of sales in the history of Canadian real estate. This likely has a few people scratching their heads, amidst the economic environment. However, it actually makes sense if you zoom out from the monthly look.

Record High Canadian Home Sales Balances A Record Low
The surge in demand appears to be delayed demand concentrated into a smaller window than usual. Looking at the 12-month rolling average, July comes in at 39,483 sales. Over the previous ten years, the median for the 12-month rolling average is 39,212, a difference of less than 1%. What does that mean? The record low in March and April, was balanced by the surge of traffic in June and July. Demand wasn’t lost, it was delayed, and is currently catching up.

The takeaway? Sale volumes are very high, and it may be surprising as a single data point. However, when you account for artificially suppressed demand and stimulus, it’s expected. If you were ready to buy in March, and the pandemic slowed your buying, you were still ready to buy. You just couldn’t. The BoC’s suppression of mortgage rates also pulls forward demand, helping to bolster numbers. The bigger mystery is how many new stimulus measures the government will attempt, before running into the future demand they borrowed.

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-rea ... urprising/

Canadian Real Estate Sales
The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.
Screen Shot 2020-08-17 at 8.23.16 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:23 pm


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2020-08-12T18:16:58-08:00 2020-08-12T18:16:58-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129776&p=345463#p345463 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • St. Paul’s Hospital site sold to Concord for approximately $1 billion]]>
Jeremy Hainsworth Glacier Media
August 12, 2020

The Burrard Street site of Vancouver’s 124-year-old St. Paul’s Hospital has been sold to development giant Concord Pacific Group for about $1 billion as work continues on a $1.9-billion False Creek Flats replacement facility.

“This is a very important property in Vancouver and we recognize that,” Concord Pacific senior vice president of development Peter Webb said of the land sold by St. Paul’s operator Providence Health Care (PHC).

The development will be mixed-use commercial and residential. What community amenities will be included remains to be seen.

The timing of any development work is contingent on the move to the new site but demolition could begin in several years. Webb said the company recognizes some of the site or facades have heritage values and could be retained.

Webb stressed building and then moving a hospital is a complex undertaking for PHC.

“It really depends on their schedule, not ours,” he said.

It also remains to be seen how high new structures at the site could go due to height restrictions determined by so-called city view cones, vice president David Ju said

There are no plans yet to go through those view cone heights.

How development moves forward will be in conjunction with government, the community and first nations groups, Webb said.

The prime, 6.6-acre site had a 2019 assessment of $702.37 million, down from 2018 $784 million in 2018, according to BC Assessment records. The decrease was due to a decline in the assessed land value. The buildings’ value remained steady at $100,225,000.

Concord Pacific has been involved in acquiring the land since 2019 with approval earlier this year. The deal closed at the end of July.

“We’re extremely pleased with this sale,” PHC president Fiona Dalton said. “It is a unique achievement in Canada that enables us to invest in BC’s health care system while minimizing the cost to taxpayers, and continues to build on our 126-year legacy of compassionate and innovative care, research and teaching.”

Concord Pacific is one the Lower Mainland’s biggest development companies. It redeveloped Vancouver’s old Expo 86 lands, changing the face of False Creek, and more recently Burnaby’s Brentwood Town Centre and Metrotown. Projects are also underway in Richmond and Surrey as well as in Calgary, Toronto and other cities.

The proceeds of the sale are earmarked as part of funding for the new hospital.

The state-of-the-art replacement project for the crumbling hospital, built in 1896, it should be open by 2026, Premier John Horgan said in February 2019.

Webb said if Concord Pacific achieves higher densities than expected for the development, it would increase revenue to PHC for the new hospital under terms of the sale agreement.

https://www.westerninvestor.com/news/br ... 1.24185335

Statistics: Posted by news — Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:16 pm


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2020-08-11T16:25:12-08:00 2020-08-11T16:25:12-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129775&p=345462#p345462 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Canadian Immigration Slows Further, As New Permanent Residents Drop Over 44%]]>
One of the driving forces behind Canadian real estate prices is on hold – immigration. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows the number of newly admitted permanent residents to Canada is still making sharp declines in June. The decline was mostly consistent around the country, except in BC and Quebec. The former is seeing a smaller than average decline, and the latter a larger than average.

Permanent Residents To Canada Down Over 44%
The number of new permanent residents arriving in Canada is on the decline. There were just 19,175 people admitted in June, down 44.2% from the same month last year. Year-to-date (YTD), this is now just 103,420 admitted people, down 35.5% from last year. The annual decline is softened by large growth in the first two months of this year. Even with that increase, we’re still seeing a lag in growth.

New Permanent Residents To Ontario Drops Over 41%
Ontario is where almost half of the total permanent residents admitted moved. The province represents 9,145 permanent residents admitted in June, down 41.8% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 48,455 people admitted, down 35.1% compared to last year. For the province, this would be the lowest rate of admittance in at least half a decade, but likely much longer. A larger monthly decline than YTD implies declines are getting larger.

New Permanent Residents To BC Drops Over 20%
British Columbia (B.C.) is the second largest province for permanent resident arrivals. The province saw 3,990 permanent residents admitted in June, down 20.7% from the same month last year. Year-to-date there were 17,205 people admitted, down 23.64% from the same period last year. B.C. is actually the province seeing the smallest declines of any province in Canada. The smaller monthly decline than YTD implies the declines are improving.

New Permanent Residents To Quebec Drops Over 64%
Quebec has been seeing a steady slide in the number of permanent residents admitted for a few years now. The province only saw 1,365 permanent residents admitted in June, down 64.7% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 10,950 people, down 39.9% compared to the same period last year. This one isn’t entirely due to the pandemic though, since permanent residents arriving in Quebec peaked in 2017 for the month of June.

The decline in permanent residents is almost entirely due to the pandemic. We’re likely to see these numbers rise as global restrictions ease into next year. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of people expected to create housing demand aren’t coming, or won’t be coming for a while.

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-imm ... p-over-44/

Canadian Permanent Resident Change – June
The percent change in permanent residents admitted to Canada for the month of June, compared to last year. Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
Screen Shot 2020-08-11 at 5.24.57 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:25 pm


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2020-08-06T16:29:07-08:00 2020-08-06T16:29:07-08:00 http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129774&p=345461#p345461 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Foreign Buyers are Pumping the Brakes on Home Purchases]]>
Foreign buyers cut back their investment in U.S. residential properties over the 12 months that ended in March. It was the second year-over-year decline.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) annual survey among its members about their transactions with international clients found foreign buyers purchased $74 billion in existing U.S. homes from April 2019 through March 2020, a 5 percent decline from the same period a year earlier. The number of properties purchased dropped 16 percent to 154,000.

Foreign buyers who were U.S. residents, either as recent immigrants or holding the appropriate visas, purchased $41 billion in residential real estate, down 8 percent from the prior period. Foreign buyers living abroad spent $33 billion, a 1 percent decrease. Those two types of international buyers were responsible for 4 percent of the nation's total existing home sales of $1.7 trillion during that period.

"Foreign buyers and recent immigrants have become less of a force in the U.S. housing market over the last couple of years," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "A lack of housing inventory - the primary factor hindering domestic buyers - is also holding back some foreign buyers. Additionally, less cross-border travel, falling international trade and fewer foreign students attending American universities are impacting foreign homebuyers."

Persons from China and Canada were the most prolific buyers of U.S. homes, spending $11.5 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively. Those countries have produced the most buyers every year since 2013 although Chinese investment was down more than $2 billion from the previous year. Mexico at $5.8 billion, India at $5.4 billion, and Colombia at $1.3 billion rounded out the top five. Colombia replaced the United Kingdom as the fifth largest country of origin by dollar volume of foreign buyers.

International buyers spent a median of $314,600 on existing homes,15 percent more than the median price of $274,600 for all such U.S. sales. NAR says the difference is due to the location and type of properties purchased. The median purchase by Chinese buyers, $449,500, reflects that more than half the properties were in either California or New York.

"In the upcoming year, better opportunities may become available for foreign buyers in large U.S. cities like New York and San Francisco," said Yun. "New patterns of domestic migration are trending away from expensive cities to more affordable suburbs and small communities because of the pandemic and greater work-from-home possibilities."

Foreign buyers preferred the suburbs to cities; 48 percent purchased in the former location versus 29 percent in an urban area, a trend has persisted for five years. Seven percent bought in a resort area, down from 15 percent in 2009, and reflecting fewer buyers from the United Kingdom and Canada who made many of those purchases.

The Sunbelt remains the preferred destination. Florida led the list for the 12th straight year with 22 percent of international purchases. California ranked second at 15 percent. Texas at 9 percent, New York at 5 percent, and New Jersey at 4 percent completed the top five U.S. destinations.

Thirty-nine percent of purchases were all-cash, with a higher percentage of those transactions, 58 percent, than resident buyers at 27 percent. The highest share of all-cash purchases, 66 percent, were made by Canadian buyers while 40 percent of Chinese buyers also paid cash. Asian Indian buyers were the least likely to pay all-cash at just 8 percent, and the most likely to obtain a mortgage at 87 percent.

Half of foreign buyers purchased the property for primary residence use. Three in four - 74 percent - purchased detached single-family homes and townhouses.

Katie Johnson, NAR's general counsel and chief member experience officer said the association collaborates with local Realtor groups to educate foreign buyers on the opportunities in U.S. real estate and maximize the global business potential in local markets. "NAR and the Realtor brand... has grown to a network of 104 real estate associations across 85 countries, ensuring stable, accessible markets that allow our members to make direct connections with global real estate professionals and sources of foreign investment."

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/080620 ... _sales.asp

Statistics: Posted by news — Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:29 pm


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